By L.K. Regan
Published Aug 04, 2008

Annual HIV infection rates in the U.S. are 40 percent higher than previously believed, and continue to hit gay men, African-American, and Latino communities particularly hard, according to a study published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Saturday. The study will be published in the August 6 edition of the Journal of the American Medical Association; publishers had planned to publish the study at the opening of the International AIDS Conference in Mexico City this week, but moved it up to Saturday.

The paper based on the CDC's research will indicate that the agency has been underreporting HIV infection rates by roughly 15,000 cases per year in the U.S. since the early 1990s. Whereas the annual average was previously believed to be about 40,000 cases per year, the CDC now thinks that rates were never that low, even at the low-point of infections in the early 1990s. The CDC now estimates the rate of infection to be between 55,000 and 58,000 new HIV cases per year, and to have been at those levels since the late 1990s. The article calculates incidence for a particular year—2006. For that year, the CDC now estimates 56,300 cases of HIV infection.

The new numbers are the combined result of statistical analysis and extrapolations with the results of a form of laboratory testing unavailable in previous years. Previous estimates were based only on the date of diagnosis—a highly unreliable method for a virus that can take a decade to manifest itself. The new test, by contrast, is able to distinguish between recent and long-term HIV infections, and so gives a more accurate picture of the rate of new infections as opposed to older cases. The new test can also give more exact information about infection rates in particular populations. The rate of infection was seven times higher among African-Americans and three times higher among Latinos than among whites. That means that African-Americans, who represent 13 percent of the U.S. population, formed 45 percent of the new infections in 2006. The research also confirms that gay and bisexual men represent the largest proportion of new infections, with 53 percent of new cases appearing in these populations.

The long-term underestimation of infection rates has proven shocking, and embarrassing, to the medical and political communities alike. In part, a historical trend analysis forming part of the article revising the CDC's estimates indicates that rates of HIV infection have remained roughly constant since the late 1990s—that is to say, through a decade of intensive education and prevention programs designed to reduce that number. With the newly adjusted infection rates, the appearance of progress in prevention over recent years has largely vanished. While the CDC still estimates an initial sharp plunge in HIV infections in the early 1990s—from a high of about 130,000 new cases per year in the mid-1980s to a low around 50,000 in the early 1990s—the organization finds little evidence of progress since then, and in fact see a moderate spike in numbers in the later 1990s that leveled off but never receded.

Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, Director of the CDC, said that, "If there is any good news here, it is hard to report it, but there is a little bit in the sense that while incidence rates are certainly too high, they are stable. That is important because a stable number of new infections in a world that has got more and more people with HIV and people with AIDS living in it suggests that we are keeping up with that pressure for transmission."

Still, it is difficult to avoid the logic of Dr. Kevin A. Fenton, who heads the CDC's prevention programs: "CDC's new incidence estimates reveal that the HIV epidemic is and has been worse than previously known."

Until now, the number of people in the U.S. living with HIV was estimated at around 1.1 million. That number will now require a depressing revision.

jasonmericson wrote:

Articles like this need to include the corresponding number of AIDS cases as well. This makes it sound like there are more AIDS cases than there actually are, and that's irresponsible reporting. And the estimates were off by 40 percent? That's not insignificant, that's not within any reasonable margin of error. Why are we funding these people when they make mistakes this large?

Jun 30 6:50 PM

UnifiedAron04 wrote:

This dose Not surprise me one bit. This "Virus" synthetically engineered as it's been during the mid to late 70's as the-"Our" governments plan of "bio-warfare" and the extermination of the blacks, latinos, gays, and whatever "undesirables" they view us as. This weapon called AIDS is still doing the job it was meant to do. And to think with the whole "9/11" bullshit and everything else under the sun in this country that we've been lied to about, this "mis-count" off reported findings might as well be in the mix! As far as I'm concerned, not only is this "new" finding made to spread fear, but either way the higher ups are not too worried about it. It doesn't affect them, and frankly most of the "conservatives" wouldn't mind complete and utter genocide of African people, gays, or who ever else is "unworthy" of life and freedom. Yes, people have a responsibility as well to protect themselves and get educated about this growing problem. But yet, the money industry for all of the "lovely" drugs and treatments they have for these afflicted people is much to great of an investment, to put a damper on it with REAL education....

Aug 15 5:23 AM

Jakers420 wrote:

I'm 20 and I can understand this delema. Most of my family works for the CDC. My own mother is in chare of desiease survalence in my home town.
This problem with AIDS (as i have tended to notice) is that most people with have no clue, besides not wanting to go check themselves out at the local clinic due to some stigma or fear of the results. Theres nothing to fear about maintaining your health.
Also, it really makes me sad to see gay teens as young as 15 going around and having unprotected sex. Thats insane!! The gay community seems to push the idea of sex furthur every year. Men these days tend to follow their boner and have no self control. I have not had sex in over a year and thats because it's just not safe and I see no need right now. Self-control has so much to do with it too. I duno, I just hope I can find myself a man one day that understands what they do and how to do it safely. There is a chance for bareback, but It requires both partners getting checked out and making sure it's safe. well, I'm on vacation in NYC and I need to go smoke this New York weed. Oh, and usually Crystal meth or other scurges tend to go along with STD's. So if you wana get high, somke a joint.. no needles or straws!

Aug 12 4:03 AM

cuteguylookin wrote:

I totally agree with gladiatorXXX about the gay comunity having no idea about what true love and comitment is...It seem like all the gay life is about hookups and how many guys u can sleep with.. Well there r some of us who r looking for relationships that will endure the test of time... Not everyone whos gay wnats to sleep around and be horish..Im glad there r others out there that feel the smae.. I am waiting for that guy who wanta a true relationship and commitment.. that knows what real love and momog relationship means...I encourage u who r waiting on a for real longterm life...meaning full realtionship to be strong keep ur morales and wait that guy is out there for ur just like gladiatorXXX and i r...so be encouraged guys and lets bring down the hiv spread and show the world what real love and relationship is all about....

Aug 12 3:20 AM

bmvwx5 wrote:

The unfortunate reason for this trend might be :
Unsafe sex in prisons where condoms are not carried, teenage rapes, the fating fear of HIV fear as death rate has decreased , HIV do not deteriorate the physical appearance rapidly, and general population is not aware of the drugs side effects and the trend to celebrate sexual freedom in heterosexuality.

Aug 12 3:14 AM

GladiatorXXX wrote:

Like ads and educations and millions of dollars have done any good...We should let nature do its job and stop all fundings and let people suffer the consequences of their own poor choices.

Aug 10 4:53 PM

mobiusstripped wrote:

GladiatorXXX has a little bit of a poor mental capacity when thinking about those who had sex, no doctors and little information on what HIV is. The fact that people move INTO the United States of America for medical care and can have the virus for more than ten years without symptoms means that not finding a cure is a bit like saying "I moved to Love Canal for health reasons - I also vacation in Chernobyl." and not cleaning up both messes.

It's a mess, provide education to keep it from spreading and DON'T say it can't happen to you because you're educated. Ever think of endorsing a vaccine in schools to go with sex education? Why not?

Aug 10 4:43 PM

GladiatorXXX wrote:

I also believe that we should stop fundding to find a cure and or drugs so that the HIV virus can do its job faster. Not giving drugs that will be extendding the lives of people who want to give the virus to others or who got the virus due to their own fault and poor judgement call. Sure some childlren and people have gotten infected by others and it was not their fault. But if we let the virus take those who were asking for it; by being unsafe and having lots of unprotected sex with many guys, it will do a lot more good than extending their lives. Everytime we mess with nature and extend life of those who should die we get into touble. I say let nature take its course and stop all funding for HIV and AIDS research and let use that money to cure things that people really didn't ask for like cancer. HIV can be stop we just need to stop thinking with our heart or dicks.

Aug 10 3:22 PM

GladiatorXXX wrote:

I’ve heard that to find out who I am I needed to become promiscuous, explore sexuality with many or at least a few guys. To me that just an excuse to have random sex with random people. I’ve also heard that you can’t have a relationship while you are in the closet, have a strict religious family, or you live at home, etc etc. The truth is that if you wish to become a promiscuous gay men you can find plenty of excuses everywhere. But I don’t want to become the typical gay man who will just hook-up every night with a different guys or have a no string attached sex with friends or strangers. Jumping from bed to bed while growing old and cynical about life and desensitized to true love; knowing lots about sex and lust but nothing about true love. The reason why there is so many HIV infections is because we have become a hook-up oriented community that doesn't care much about our selves nor others. All gay man care is get their rocks off and not monogamy and relationship. Everything happens for a reason and maybe the HIV virious is a blessing that will clean off our cummunity from hook-up crazy whores.

Aug 10 3:11 PM

apollodok04 wrote:

Echoing joeindallas' comments. A little chaotic, but dead-on correct! We've got to work as a community towards prevention.

Aug 05 7:17 PM

richnj wrote:

I see young men in the prime of life looking for NSA barebacking. I understand the risk but not what they get out of it....infection.....any thoughts?

Aug 05 11:42 AM

SurrealLife wrote:

This is really depressing news, and if it does not provide a wake-up call to gay people then I don't know what will. Gays only represent up to 10% of all men but have over 50% of new HIV infections? We have lost the sense of urgency and caring for ourselves and others that existed up until the mid-90s. Immediate gratification has replaced long-term health and well-being. It will also provide new ammunition for our opponents that we are irresponsible and that our "lifestyle" is destructive. I am just about at my wits end trying to understand why some gay men are so cavalier about HIV. If you are sexually active outside of a monogamous relationship, learn about safer sex practices, practice what you learn, get tested for HIV frequently, and start caring as much about your health as you do about having fun.

Aug 05 10:41 AM

TURKO wrote:

please all people use condom for human.

Aug 05 7:49 AM

RbyHussein71 wrote:

Get tested and wrap it up kids.

Aug 05 1:51 AM

nvd211 wrote:

SAFE SEX PLEASE PEOPLE

Aug 04 8:38 PM

joeindallas wrote:

With the explosion in the numbers, we as a community should re-examine our committment to HIV prevention, for it is obvious it is not working. I moved to Dallas and even in 2005 people were talking about "gift-Giving" parties. People were talkinfg about it as if it were a "lifestyle" choise akin to Teenagers wanting to have a Kid. Guess the new generation 40 and Under should get a clue, stop barebacking everybody you meet. HIV/AIDS today is reason to have a party to raise money, now it is just a Chronic illlness as is Diabetes, and nobody wants that, In the 1970's and 1980 HIV was a death sentence, and I do not want to cry Wolf, but the HIV virus is highly mutative and someday, it might mutate into something that can not be control by the arsenal of drugs we have. Show Compassion to those who have it, Educate yourself to protect yourself and others. Get tested we can slow it not stop the growth of this in our Community

Aug 04 8:32 PM