The simple math behind Obama's re-election: A theory

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    Jul 25, 2010 11:42 PM GMT
    People are already wondering about 2012, rather than 2011 (or even 2010 if you can imagine that!), and I believe I have some simple numbers that show Obama will win (so that we can talk about something else):

    Blacks make up 14% of the US, and Obama will get that bloc for the most part; depending on the poll, LGBT folks make up 5%, and he'll get 3/5 of that bloc; whites make up 65% and he'll get 1/2 of them; Latinos weigh in at 15% of our population, and he'll 1/2 to 2/3 of them as well...

    Okay:
    12 + 3 = 15 + 33 = 48 + 10 = 58.

    Shave off 10%, because that seems like an improbable landslide (unless I get my wish and Palin is the Republican nominee), and you have 58 - 6 = 52% = re-election.

    Okay, that was easy. Can we move on to 2016 now? God!
  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Jul 26, 2010 12:56 AM GMT
    as in most of the Presidential elections of late; it will come down to the choice of the lesser of the two evils.
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    Jul 26, 2010 1:01 AM GMT
    I'm realllllly curious to see who the republican party is thinking of putting up as their front man (or woman). I can't wait to find out...
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    Jul 26, 2010 1:04 AM GMT
    This is an inexorable march toward socialism and the destruction of our American way of life.
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    Jul 26, 2010 1:06 AM GMT
    All my little pagan prayers to the Goddess are for Palin. OMG, that would make everything so easy. LOL
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    Jul 26, 2010 1:06 AM GMT
    NakedBudd saidThis is an inexorable march toward socialism and the destruction of our American way of life.



    Thank the Goddess. It's about time we caught up with the civilized world.
  • wave173

    Posts: 45

    Jul 26, 2010 1:07 AM GMT
    I wouldnt put 50% of whites voting for Obama. He got about 50% in 2008. It really depends on who the republican nominee is, but I'd put money on more than 50% of whites voting republican since Obama is polling horribly with independents right now.
  • runforyourlif...

    Posts: 154

    Jul 26, 2010 1:08 AM GMT
    Dancerjack... I heart you!
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    Jul 26, 2010 1:10 AM GMT
    I thought Sarah Palin didn't like us very much. icon_confused.gif
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    Jul 26, 2010 1:11 AM GMT
    wave173 saidI wouldnt put 50% of whites voting for Obama. He got about 50% in 2008. It really depends on who the republican nominee is, but I'd put money on more than 50% of whites voting republican since Obama is polling horribly with independents right now.




    This week. When the votes roll in it'll be half and half. No one has the balls usually to vote anyway other than they always have. I'm an independent, and I was considering McCain until he picked Satan for a running mate, ad there's no chance people will want to bring back the same policies that flushed us in the first place. Yep, half the crackers will vote for Obama again.
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    Jul 26, 2010 1:12 AM GMT
    If sarah palin gets near the white house. I am moving to Alaska...hahaha.
  • darkeyedresol...

    Posts: 171

    Jul 26, 2010 1:17 AM GMT
    Elections do not represent the real break downs of the US, so your numbers are skewed. Just because those might be the break downs of the nation as a whole, its not at all likely that will be the voter make up. I have my doubts that Obama will be able to generate the same kind of excitement he did before, considering he can't run a campaign like he did in 2008.
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    Jul 26, 2010 1:19 AM GMT
    True. We are blessed to have an electoral college still. And if Palin wins, which is not possible, I'm goin' to Alaska with you...
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    Jul 26, 2010 1:32 AM GMT
    I can say this with sincerity. It is going to be interesting.
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    Jul 26, 2010 1:52 AM GMT
    MrNomore saidIf sarah palin gets near the white house. I am moving to Alaska...hahaha.


    if you do, make sure you get a cabin with a view of Russia, lol
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    Jul 26, 2010 1:56 AM GMT
    wave173 saidI wouldnt put 50% of whites voting for Obama. He got about 50% in 2008. It really depends on who the republican nominee is, but I'd put money on more than 50% of whites voting republican since Obama is polling horribly with independents right now.

    Absolutely right - He's doing poorly with the Independents. His strategy seems to move more to the left, trying to achieve a patchwork of minority groups, further alienating Independents and dampening the enthusiasm of moderate Dems, if such a thing exists today LOL. Several analysts believe that is a loosing strategy.

    There's even talk of Hillary making a challenge if he continues to weaken. That is one theory why Bill is taking a more visible role, in addition to being more popular than Obama for the 2010 Dems.
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    Jul 26, 2010 1:58 AM GMT
    rnch saidas in most of the Presidential elections of late; it will come down to the choice of the lesser of the two evils.


    As well as it can be said
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    Jul 26, 2010 1:59 AM GMT
    darkeyedresolve saidElections do not represent the real break downs of the US, so your numbers are skewed. Just because those might be the break downs of the nation as a whole, its not at all likely that will be the voter make up. I have my doubts that Obama will be able to generate the same kind of excitement he did before, considering he can't run a campaign like he did in 2008.

    Right - I doubt as many will faint during the speeches when he chants "hope and change".
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    Jul 26, 2010 2:03 AM GMT
    One of the saddest things is the fact that Palin is apparently the front runner for the republican party, at least right now.

    She is George Bush with a twat and I wouldn't want her to run my neighborhood grocery store, let alone a state or the country.

    If the republican party wants to have a shot at 2012 they better start looking elsewhere, because Palin will be a godsend to the Democrats.
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    Jul 26, 2010 2:06 AM GMT
    sdgman saidOne of the saddest things is the fact that Palin is apparently the front runner for the republican party, at least right now.

    She is George Bush with a twat and I wouldn't want her to run my neighborhood grocery store, let alone a state or the country.

    If the republican party wants to have a shot at 2012 they better start looking elsewhere, because Palin will be a godsend to the Democrats.

    You're right. Aside from other issues, she doesn't have enough experience. We know what happens when someone is elected without the proper experience and we don't need to repeat this.
  • MuscleComeBac...

    Posts: 2376

    Jul 26, 2010 2:11 AM GMT
    sdgman saidOne of the saddest things is the fact that Palin is apparently the front runner for the republican party, at least right now.
    She is George Bush with a twat


    So....that's a Twat with a Twat, right? Ewwwww!icon_eek.gif
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    Jul 26, 2010 2:13 AM GMT
    socalfitness said
    sdgman saidOne of the saddest things is the fact that Palin is apparently the front runner for the republican party, at least right now.

    She is George Bush with a twat and I wouldn't want her to run my neighborhood grocery store, let alone a state or the country.

    If the republican party wants to have a shot at 2012 they better start looking elsewhere, because Palin will be a godsend to the Democrats.

    You're right. Aside from other issues, she doesn't have enough experience. We know what happens when someone is elected without the proper experience and we don't need to repeat this.


    Exactly...lol. Why can't we elect an economist? How can neither party see the national debt has been the biggest threat to this country since Reagan blew it up?
  • ScreamShatter

    Posts: 40

    Jul 26, 2010 2:19 AM GMT
    You're looking at it through the scope of popular vote...you need to take what you're doing and apply it to all 50 states...then use the weighted average to calculate electoral college votes.

    Or you can visit: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

    It was BY FAR the closest polling done in the 2008 elections. The guy that operates that site is a statistical genius.
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    Jul 26, 2010 2:19 AM GMT
    sdgman said
    socalfitness said
    sdgman saidOne of the saddest things is the fact that Palin is apparently the front runner for the republican party, at least right now.

    She is George Bush with a twat and I wouldn't want her to run my neighborhood grocery store, let alone a state or the country.

    If the republican party wants to have a shot at 2012 they better start looking elsewhere, because Palin will be a godsend to the Democrats.

    You're right. Aside from other issues, she doesn't have enough experience. We know what happens when someone is elected without the proper experience and we don't need to repeat this.


    Exactly...lol. Why can't we elect an economist? How can neither party see the national debt has been the biggest threat to this country since Reagan blew it up?


    How about electing Ben Stein for president?
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    Jul 26, 2010 2:23 AM GMT


    How about electing Ben Stein for president?[/quote]

    Now THOSE would be some exciting State of the Union Addresses!..