Global Warming to make Canada a Superpower by 2050?

  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 25, 2010 11:05 PM GMT
    Andy Johnson, CTV.ca News

    Date: Saturday Sep. 25, 2010 6:40 PM ET

    By the year 2050 Canada could be enjoying newfound status as a global superpower blessed with a developed north, plenty of fresh water, a growing population and new shipping lanes through the Arctic.

    That's the theory put forward in Laurence C. Smith's new book "The World in 2050" -- a scientific exploration of the effects of climate change over the next 40 years.

    According to Smith's 40-year projection, global warming will free up northern natural resources such as oil, gas and water. That in turn will attract immigrants and lead to new infrastructure and development for northern rim countries -- NORCs, as he calls them -- at a time when southern countries will be running out of resources and seeing their populations fall.

    The north will also warm up, meaning fewer and fewer of those -40 Celsius days that tend to grind productivity to a halt.

    But this is not a reason to celebrate, Smith is quick to point out. While Canada, Russia, the Scandinavian countries and northern U.S. will see significant benefits from a warming planet, the rest of the world will suffer catastrophic losses.

    "Most climate change is overwhelmingly negative, I'm not a Pollyanna," he told CTV.ca from his office at UCLA, noting that we are already experiencing the harsh effects of a warming planet.

    "The pine beetle is devastating B.C. timber and summer heat waves knocked out 30 per cent of Russia wheat crop, so it would be disingenuous of me to suggest all of this spells nothing but good news. But alongside the bad news there will be some beneficial changes."

    Smith, a scientist and professor of geography and earth sciences at the University of California Los Angeles, set out four years ago to write a book about the negative effects of climate change in the north.

    There are two stories to every issue. I went there and found people suffering but I also found people flourishing, doing well.


    -- Laurence Smith



    Just prior to that, ice levels in the Arctic had receded to a record low and there was a feverish search among journalists for stories about the negative fallout for northern life.

    Smith joined in that hunt.

    "I'm a climate scientist by training and an Arctic specialist, so I went to the Arctic to document the effects of climate change and hopefully humanize it a bit," he said.

    "I wanted to hear, frankly, about the negative effects of climate change. And I did. I got all those stories and I got more than that on top of it. I got a lot more than I bargained for."

    Inevitably, Smith's conversations about melting ice and shrinking hunting grounds segued to other issues, like land claims, education issues, new development and industry -- those were the topics northern residents really wanted to talk about.

    "There are two stories to every issue," Smith told CTV.ca.

    "I went there and found people suffering but I also found people flourishing, doing well."

    That discovery changed the direction of Smith's project and he began to consider the possibility that climate change could have a silver lining -- at least for some.

    Dramatic projections

    In "The World in 2050" Smith analyzes four "global forces" that he believes are the main drivers shaping our future world:

    Climate change
    The worldwide effects of a growing and aging population
    Increasing demand for dwindling natural resources
    Globalization and worldwide economic integration

    Among his findings, Smith projects that China will pass the U.S. as the world's strongest economy by 2050. The U.S. will move to second, followed by India.

    Mega-cities will proliferate in this new world, and wet regions will get wetter while dry parts of the planet will get even drier.

    And of course, the world will get a lot warmer. By century's end, Smith predicts, the planet's temperatures will have risen by 15 degrees Celsius on average -- at best. At worst, it will be double that.

    The earth's animal population will also suffer huge losses as a result of these changes and some species will be forced further and further north, in order to survive.

    Weathering the storm

    Canada, however, is well positioned geographically, politically and socially to deal with many of these changes, Smith said.

    Perhaps most importantly, Canada is a country that welcomes skilled immigrants. As a result, despite our aging demographic, Canada's population is set to increase by 30 per cent in the next 40 years -- a growth rate rivalling India's.

    "That's mostly due to her ability to attract highly skilled immigrants," Smith said. "Canadian immigration policy favours work skills and language above all else, even family reunification."

    Culturally, Canadians have become a very welcoming country to newcomers, Smith said, referencing Canada's multi-ethnic television spectrum as an example. That characteristic will serve the country well, Smith said, as outsiders begin to clamour for opportunities here.

    Russia, by contrast, will likely experience a population crash due to its xenophobic attitude towards outsiders.

    "There's a spectrum and it all goes back to the exact same thing, how welcoming are you of global integration? And the countries that welcome outsiders grow, the ones that don't, do not," Smith said.

    Smith also cites the birth rate of Canada's northern indigenous people and the "resurgence of their political power" as a strength for Canada.

    Among the Inuit the median age is 23, compared to 40 for the country as a while, and in Nunavut the birth rate is 24 babies for every 1,000 people.

    "So it's a small population but it's one of the fastest growing," Smith said, pointing out that a growing northern population bodes well for the region.

    A warning cry

    Despite the positive predictions Smith makes for Canada over the next 40 years, he says his message is overwhelmingly one of warning. He hopes readers will not take his theories as a reason to celebrate their NORC status, but that they will be inspired to change the course currently set in motion.

    "It's my fervent hope that this book makes people think harder about what were doing now so we can avert many of its predictions," he said.

    "We're talking about a tiny part of the globe. These handful of benefits occur in a small place, and they have to be framed against the background of a world depressed. It seems almost selfish to relish in those benefits that come at such a cost."

  • Anto

    Posts: 2035

    Sep 26, 2010 3:23 AM GMT
    Seems to be inconsiderate of other factors that would influence how things might change.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 26, 2010 3:43 AM GMT
    I think that would be great. Let them pay the taxes, handle the world's problems, and go get killed. And take in all the immgrants. (There is not enough population in Canada right now.) Then we can sit down here and be the ingrates and tell them how they should be handling things. icon_wink.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 26, 2010 4:22 AM GMT
    Canadians are nice people, in my experience. If there came up 2 or 3 notches in the grand scheme of things, I don't think it would be such a bad thing.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 26, 2010 4:46 AM GMT
    UpperCanadian, shhh! It was supposed ta be seekrit.
  • xysx

    Posts: 306

    Sep 26, 2010 6:39 AM GMT
    interesting read. thx.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 26, 2010 6:45 AM GMT
    I've been thinking this for some time now. The places to buy real estate while you can get it cheap are Maine, Vermont, Newfoundland, etc.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 26, 2010 12:03 PM GMT
    Caslon15000 saidI think that would be great. Let them pay the taxes, handle the world's problems, and go get killed. And take in all the immgrants. (There is not enough population in Canada right now.) Then we can sit down here and be the ingrates and tell them how they should be handling things. icon_wink.gif



    Bit of cheese with your whine?


    We are already doing all those things. The difference between how we handle the world is we don't go into places unless asked. WE never IMPOSE our will. - we are invited to mediate.

    Now let's see - how many countries has Canada invaded in its history? And How many has America invaded in its?

    In its first century of existence they invaded Canada, Nicaragua, Mexico... (you can continue the list. You undoubtedly know your history better than I . WE invaded the US in 1812 after you attacked us;
    You tried to seize Ile St-Jean (lPEI) to make it a base for piracy preying on the British merchant ships. (that act lit the spark that led to Confederation with the Canada's(Upper & Lower) to stop US predation on the sea lanes.

    (Upper Canada = Ontario - upstream from the St Lawrence;
    Lower Canada = Québec - downstream to the ocean.)

    Now,

    Is a comprehensive list even possible of the CIA operations to change regimes your government didn't like (Iran-Contra, anyone? Noriega? Castro? How many times did you guys try to kill him again?

    I submit the US is one of the most aggressive and warlike nations in modern history, surpassed in frequency of aggressive acts by its proxy, Israel ( funded entirely by the USA.) and it is that which has made it such a target of terroristic "retaliation."

    Even Britain with all of its wars of empire spread all those conflicts over a period of centuries.

    It is anathema in the US ( we have seen) to even intimate US foreign policy and decades of meddling sowed the seeds of the attack upon them. The response is outraged fury and calls of treason, rather than actually considering ithe truth to it.
    (No excuse for the 9/11 but it does no good to ignore the root problem)


    Yeah yeah they did it because they hate you - but why do they hate you?

    And why not Canada instead? They could have flown into the CN tower just as easily.


    There is no idealism to America's self-appointed role as "policeman ( others call it "bully."). Never has been. It has always been the pursuit of power and wealth that drove your meddling, and America has always resented anyone who proved they could stand up to you.

    But the reality has changed, and you had best start to accept it, Caslon.

    We can turn off your oil.
    And your water.

    Better learn some humilty. You no longer hold all the cards.

    And I am learning Mandarin. icon_smile.gif



    America does things for its own interests, and the world would thank you to stop meddling, and quit getting mad defensive about criticism. Stop doing it and you won;t be criticised. It's pretty simple.

    "The Case for Goliath" began with a flawed premise.
  • Regina_Guy

    Posts: 406

    Sep 26, 2010 1:49 PM GMT
    It's great to see our plan for world domination is finally in play! Lol
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 26, 2010 2:10 PM GMT
    UpperCanadian said
    Caslon15000 saidI think that would be great. Let them pay the taxes, handle the world's problems, and go get killed. And take in all the immgrants. (There is not enough population in Canada right now.) Then we can sit down here and be the ingrates and tell them how they should be handling things. icon_wink.gif



    Bit of cheese with your whine?


    We are already doing all those things. The difference between how we handle the world is we don't go into places unless asked. WE never IMPOSE our will. - we are invited to mediate.

    Now let's see - how many countries has Canada invaded in its history? And How many has America invaded in its?

    In its first century of existence they invaded Canada, Nicaragua, Mexico... (you can continue the list. You undoubtedly know your history better than I . WE invaded the US in 1812 after you attacked us;
    You tried to seize Ile St-Jean (lPEI) to make it a base for piracy preying on the British merchant ships. (that act lit the spark that led to Confederation with the Canada's(Upper & Lower) to stop US predation on the sea lanes.

    (Upper Canada = Ontario - upstream from the St Lawrence;
    Lower Canada = Québec - downstream to the ocean.)

    Now,

    Is a comprehensive list even possible of the CIA operations to change regimes your government didn't like (Iran-Contra, anyone? Noriega? Castro? How many times did you guys try to kill him again?

    I submit the US is one of the most aggressive and warlike nations in modern history, surpassed in frequency of aggressive acts by its proxy, Israel ( funded entirely by the USA.) and it is that which has made it such a target of terroristic "retaliation."

    Even Britain with all of its wars of empire spread all those conflicts over a period of centuries.

    It is anathema in the US ( we have seen) to even intimate US foreign policy and decades of meddling sowed the seeds of the attack upon them. The response is outraged fury and calls of treason, rather than actually considering ithe truth to it.
    (No excuse for the 9/11 but it does no good to ignore the root problem)


    Yeah yeah they did it because they hate you - but why do they hate you?

    And why not Canada instead? They could have flown into the CN tower just as easily.


    There is no idealism to America's self-appointed role as "policeman ( others call it "bully."). Never has been. It has always been the pursuit of power and wealth that drove your meddling, and America has always resented anyone who proved they could stand up to you.

    But the reality has changed, and you had best start to accept it, Caslon.

    We can turn off your oil.
    And your water.

    Better learn some humilty. You no longer hold all the cards.

    And I am learning Mandarin. icon_smile.gif



    America does things for its own interests, and the world would thank you to stop meddling, and quit getting mad defensive about criticism. Stop doing it and you won;t be criticised. It's pretty simple.

    "The Case for Goliath" began with a flawed premise.


    Completely agree with your defence of Canada and the rest of your argument... Australia is more implicated than Canada... we blindly followed the US to Iraq, Afganistan, etc... and to what avail? If the US hadn't armed the middle east in the cold war against russia then would they have the power they hold now? In any respect they have the oil, why shouldn't they demand a fair price on the open market?

    One point though about the oil... dont you have an agreement with the US regarding your oil export? Turning it off isn't really an option for you guys... my understanding is that the agreement says that most of the oil you produce goes to the US anyway?

    As for 9/11... I ask... (leading question)... when the US banned ALL flights from landing in the US where did they land? What country permitted those flights to land so that 1000's of civilians weren't forced to cirlce in holding patterns until they ran out of fuel and ditched in the oceans?

    I heart Canada. Enough said.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 26, 2010 2:23 PM GMT
    oh ps. on the original topic... this is but ONE view of global warming... another says that canada and europe will be covered in ice due to oceanic conversions and you'll all be fleeing to mexico for temperate climate... the science is highly debatable... best we all get on board and do what we can to prevent it happening in the first place!
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 26, 2010 3:44 PM GMT
    I was kidding, of course about the oil and water, to point out how the US no longer in any positiion to exercise its clout with impunity.

    We could never could, nor would we ever want to do that.

    From an economic standpoint it would be self-destructive; from a treaty standpoint it would be illegal; from an emotional standpoint, it would be unconscionable.

    The concept of water as a commodity is not innate to us. Water is a necessity of life and it belongs to everyone.

    And that is the essence of the clash when native values meet the white man's. One cannot "own" what was given to all. you can only charge for your work to make use of it.


    Thus the difficulty native culture has internally assimilating the concept that "this is MINE." It is fundamental to the cultural ideation that ownership is merely temporary use or custody of what the earth has given.

    Processing and making something of something the earth provides is your contribution to creation. you really no more need for reimbursement as a DUE (as we think of it in our culture) than we think of "God" requiring payment.

    You chose to create. If it is useful for someone they will use it (without thinking to first ask you - why should they? If you did not mean for it to be used, why did you create it?

    Nor will they thank you. ("I honoured your skill and creation by USING it - as you wanted - so whywould do you expect "thanks?" And that will be true bewilderment.

    Thus the constant clash of values and natives running afoul of our code of laws. What we consider as patently obvious (this is Mine, I found it) is for animals, not people.

    Thus, by their behaviour, my mother's ancestors quite firmly believed the white invaders were animals - not to be feared any more than any other animal borne of nature. Other tribes lived by the sae code - hence they, too, were "people" ("Dene" - pronounced "deh-NAY"

    Poor naive people.. We occupied the lands they have lived on forever, declared "New House Rules!" gave them as few hectares that WE deigned to call "reserved" for them - the people who were there first.

    Very magnanimous of us.






  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 26, 2010 3:45 PM GMT
    Oh well that's just great, between the article you posted about Canada being corrupt and now this we're really screwed! Although there are a lot of hot guys in Canada so maybe moving north wouldn't be so bad...
  • Delivis

    Posts: 2332

    Sep 26, 2010 3:59 PM GMT
    someguy saidOh well that's just great, between the article you posted about Canada being corrupt and now this we're really screwed! Although there are a lot of hot guys in Canada so maybe moving north wouldn't be so bad...


    That's just Quebec..icon_smile.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 26, 2010 9:36 PM GMT
    There is one reason that is reason enough to confidently say that this will definitely not happen. If the Canadian Forces aren't buffed up to a respectable size, with technology better suited to *defend our sovereignty*, this will not happen, and We'll just get taken over; Strong-armed by the US of A.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 27, 2010 3:22 AM GMT
    Grawr saidThere is one reason that is reason enough to confidently say that this will definitely not happen. If the Canadian Forces aren't buffed up to a respectable size, with technology better suited to *defend our sovereignty*, this will not happen, and We'll just get taken over; Strong-armed by the US of A.


    Canada invokes Article IV of the NATO treaty, that would put the USA at war with every other NATO ally; Russia would consider it an unacceptable a threat to their interests, as would China, so I think that is even less a likelihood than the farfetched scenario of the report.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 27, 2010 9:17 AM GMT
    UpperCanadian said
    By the year 2050 Canada could be enjoying newfound status as a global superpower blessed with a developed north, plenty of fresh water, a growing population and new shipping lanes through the Arctic.


    Specious.

    Based on this logic, Russia shouldn't have any population.

    Canada will grow in population though as their Muslim and Asian populations gets out of hand.

    It will be an epic race for Canastan vs Chinada.

    Oh also none of this will matter because Mexicans will make up over 50% of the American population by 2050. And Mexicans are far more diligent than the current lazy White and Black people here. So they will propagate the great American dream of taking over the world.

    So what will happen to Mexico then?!?
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 27, 2010 12:24 PM GMT
    I am not racist.

    Ill start with saying that.

    Why does Canada not encourage immigration form all countries? Take the good workers and worthy immigrants from the US, UK, Scandinavian countries, Russia, South Africa, South America, etc. Why must all, or a very significant amount, of our immigration come from Asia?

    Educated responses only.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 27, 2010 4:03 PM GMT
    pat3rob saidI am not racist.

    Ill start with saying that.

    Why does Canada not encourage immigration form all countries? Take the good workers and worthy immigrants from the US, UK, Scandinavian countries, Russia, South Africa, South America, etc. Why must all, or a very significant amount, of our immigration come from Asia?

    Educated responses only.

    Living conditions in the US, UK and Scandinavian countries on par, so there is less motivation to " seek a better life." in"the West" when you are already there.

    The immigration criteria are uniform, regardless of country of origin.

    We encourage immigrationfrom anywhere, using the same set of qualifications.

    We attract a lot of people from the Pacific Rim because WE are a Pacific Rim nation too. Like attracts like.

  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 27, 2010 11:42 PM GMT
    pat3rob saidI am not racist.

    Ill start with saying that.

    Why does Canada not encourage immigration form all countries? Take the good workers and worthy immigrants from the US, UK, Scandinavian countries, Russia, South Africa, South America, etc. Why must all, or a very significant amount, of our immigration come from Asia?

    Educated responses only.


    My guess is that Canada is more sympathetic with the harsh conditions of communist China, allowing disenfranchised Chinese people to immigrate to Canada, almost as if they view it as the Chinese seeking refuge. That's why the bulk of the Asians are Chinese, especially in Vancouver. It's moderately understandable. But still a bit dubious considering there's other countries with similar conditions.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 28, 2010 12:10 AM GMT
    JAKEBENSON said
    So what will happen to Mexico then?!?


    Mexico will be taken over by aging, white american retirees and college kids trying to find better weed.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 28, 2010 12:28 AM GMT
    God, I hope not. I like us the way we are with lots of wilderness and great fishing. Why spoil it with too many people?
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 28, 2010 12:37 AM GMT
    JAKEBENSON said
    pat3rob saidI am not racist.

    Ill start with saying that.

    Why does Canada not encourage immigration form all countries? Take the good workers and worthy immigrants from the US, UK, Scandinavian countries, Russia, South Africa, South America, etc. Why must all, or a very significant amount, of our immigration come from Asia?

    Educated responses only.


    My guess is that Canada is more sympathetic with the harsh conditions of communist China, allowing disenfranchised Chinese people to immigrate to Canada, almost as if they view it as the Chinese seeking refuge. That's why the bulk of the Asians are Chinese, especially in Vancouver. It's moderately understandable. But still a bit dubious considering there's other countries with similar conditions.


    There is high priority placed on re-unification of families - so if you have a relative here and they have relatives that wish to come too - they get speedy processing (the assumption they land with a ready-made support to integrate into their new home.)

    China began letting their people come to Canada in the 70s. Tthat created a landed group of emigrés. and as relatives were allowed to join them in the move, that created more applications to bring other relatives (like on a spouses' side of the family) left behind. So the pace of emigration from regions goes in waves, each one bringing more and more.

    After WWII we had a huge influx of Dutch immigrants, as Cdn soldiers in the Liberation of Holland came back with Dutch brides, who would then bring parents, then siblings... who would in turn bring a spouse, who in tirn would sponsor siblings, so would bering a spouse, and so on.By the 1960s there was another wave. from the next generation of - half-Dutch; half-Canadians. (so the waves come about 20 - 25 years apart)

    The first modern wave of Chinese came after Trudeau's visit to Beijing resulted in Chou en Lai (the Chinese Premier) opening the borders to Chinese wishing to go to Canada.

    A second point of connectuon to the region also comes again through Indonesia - where the Dutch had quasi colonial influence (which established another chain of initial contact that then gradually snowballed in the same manner - so the foundations of immigration links from Asia to Canada, to my understanding, stem from those two periods.

    (based on knowing a lot of Dutch immigrants.

    The Chinese information come out of a project I am deeply involved right now, making a show out of the experiences of a Chinese Canadian friend of mine (a former student) who went through re-education during the Cultural Revolution. for the crime of being an "intellectual."





  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Sep 29, 2010 2:17 PM GMT
    pat3rob saidI am not racist.

    Ill start with saying that.

    Why does Canada not encourage immigration form all countries? Take the good workers and worthy immigrants from the US, UK, Scandinavian countries, Russia, South Africa, South America, etc. Why must all, or a very significant amount, of our immigration come from Asia?

    Educated responses only.


    Canada focuses quite strongly on immigration from Australia as well... you just have to pay a visit to Whistler to see the results...