Gary Shilling: And Now House Prices Will Drop Another 20%

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    Mar 23, 2011 2:30 PM GMT
    http://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-house-prices-2011-3?op=1

    Last October, when everyone was jubilant about the housing "recovery," Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co., predicted that house prices would fall another 20%.

    In the five months since, house prices have resumed their decline.
    In his most recent research note, Gary sticks by his "20%" decline prediction. We've included a summary and updated charts from his argument below.
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    Mar 23, 2011 2:46 PM GMT
    riddler78 saidhttp://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-house-prices-2011-3?op=1

    Last October, when everyone was jubilant about the housing "recovery," Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co., predicted that house prices would fall another 20%.

    In the five months since, house prices have resumed their decline.
    In his most recent research note, Gary sticks by his "20%" decline prediction. We've included a summary and updated charts from his argument below.
    And the repubs think they'll balance budgets.. ROTFLMAO!
    They need to get real and start telling some truths. (like that'll ever happen)
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    Mar 23, 2011 3:00 PM GMT
    TropicalMark said
    riddler78 saidhttp://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-house-prices-2011-3?op=1

    Last October, when everyone was jubilant about the housing "recovery," Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co., predicted that house prices would fall another 20%.

    In the five months since, house prices have resumed their decline.
    In his most recent research note, Gary sticks by his "20%" decline prediction. We've included a summary and updated charts from his argument below.
    And the repubs think they'll balance budgets.. ROTFLMAO!
    They need to get real and start telling some truths. (like that'll ever happen)


    I attribute this more to the fact that by the government (both under the Bush and Obama Administration) "saving" the financial services industry, they kicked the problems out into the future rather than dealing with them. Not sure what this has to do with moves to balance the budget - given that most of the large projected costs are the result of entitlements. Even slashing defence budgets in the US wouldn't make much of a dent.
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19119

    Mar 23, 2011 3:05 PM GMT
    I'm not sure how much of this I believe. I'm a working realtor, and I have never been busier. Homes are not staying on the market as long as they were, and new homes hitting the market (if they are good homes that are priced right) are being snapped up rather quickly. I just went into escrow on one that my client made an offer on the first day it hit the market. They have multiple backup offers if we back out. Granted, I work in the higher-end luxury market and in an area that is not as affected by the job market or economy, and most of my clients are "cash" buyers, but I am hearing similar stories from realtors in the mid-range market.
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    Mar 23, 2011 3:05 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    TropicalMark said
    riddler78 saidhttp://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-house-prices-2011-3?op=1

    Last October, when everyone was jubilant about the housing "recovery," Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co., predicted that house prices would fall another 20%.

    In the five months since, house prices have resumed their decline.
    In his most recent research note, Gary sticks by his "20%" decline prediction. We've included a summary and updated charts from his argument below.
    And the repubs think they'll balance budgets.. ROTFLMAO!
    They need to get real and start telling some truths. (like that'll ever happen)


    I attribute this more to the fact that by the government (both under the Bush and Obama Administration) "saving" the financial services industry, they kicked the problems out into the future rather than dealing with them. Not sure what this has to do with moves to balance the budget - given that most of the large projected costs are the result of entitlements. Even slashing defence budgets in the US wouldn't make much of a dent.
    I should have been more specific.. state and local budgets.. which in turn connect to the federal one as well.
    No tax revenue due to employment vacuums or real estate tax bases..
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    Mar 23, 2011 3:07 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ saidI'm not sure how much of this I believe. I'm a working realtor, and I have never been busier. Homes are not staying on the market as long as they were, and new homes hitting the market (if they are good homes that are priced right) are being snapped up rather quickly. I just went into escrow on one that my client made an offer on the first day it hit the market. They have multiple backup offers if we back out. Granted, I work in the higher-end luxury market and in an area that is not as affected by the job market or economy, and most of my clients are "cash" buyers, but I am hearing similar stories from realtors in the mid-range market.
    Curious.. we aren't out of the default/foreclosure syndrome by a longshot.
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19119

    Mar 23, 2011 3:20 PM GMT
    TropicalMark said
    CuriousJockAZ saidI'm not sure how much of this I believe. I'm a working realtor, and I have never been busier. Homes are not staying on the market as long as they were, and new homes hitting the market (if they are good homes that are priced right) are being snapped up rather quickly. I just went into escrow on one that my client made an offer on the first day it hit the market. They have multiple backup offers if we back out. Granted, I work in the higher-end luxury market and in an area that is not as affected by the job market or economy, and most of my clients are "cash" buyers, but I am hearing similar stories from realtors in the mid-range market.
    Curious.. we aren't out of the default/foreclosure syndrome by a longshot.




    I agree with you on that. My point was only that things seem to be selling more quickly than sitting on the market endlessly --- at least in the market I am working.
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    Mar 23, 2011 3:25 PM GMT
    Maybe we'll finally be able to buy. icon_lol.gif
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    Mar 23, 2011 3:35 PM GMT
    Christian73 saidMaybe we'll finally be able to buy. icon_lol.gif
    Provided there's a bank willing to lend ya anything. icon_wink.gif
  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Mar 23, 2011 3:42 PM GMT
    making a blanket statement like this one is rather arrogant and stupid, IMO.

    housing markets, pricing, and recover rates vary greatly from state to state, city to city, area to area.

    her in new orleans, we didn't have the hugh spike in prices other parts of the country did.

    so our price dive wasn't as severe as other areas experienced.

    several of my realtor friends are starting to smile when discussing pricing and sales volume. icon_biggrin.gif

    insurance and financing are the bigger worries in this area. icon_sad.gif
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    Mar 23, 2011 3:44 PM GMT
    rnch said
    insurance and financing are the bigger worries in this area. icon_sad.gif
    Dont EEEEVEN go there LOL
  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Mar 23, 2011 3:51 PM GMT
    TropicalMark said
    rnch said
    insurance and financing are the bigger worries in this area. icon_sad.gif
    Dont EEEEVEN go there LOL



    TELL me about it!!


    even though my close to the river, above ground house did not get any water inside (when 80% of new orleans did) when the faulty federally built "flood control" levies failed and flooded this unique and wonderfull city the day after hurricane katrina visited, my combined flood and homeowner's insurance has DOUBLED in the last few years, raising my house payment.


    icon_cry.gif


    icon_mad.gif
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    Mar 23, 2011 4:30 PM GMT
    rnch said
    TropicalMark said
    rnch said
    insurance and financing are the bigger worries in this area. icon_sad.gif
    Dont EEEEVEN go there LOL



    TELL me about it!!


    even though my close to the river, above ground house did not get any water inside (when 80% of new orleans did) when the faulty federally built "flood control" levies failed and flooded this unique and wonderfull city the day after hurricane katrina visited, my combined flood and homeowner's insurance has DOUBLED in the last few years, raising my house payment.


    icon_cry.gif


    icon_mad.gif
    And we havent seen any hurricane activity here in years yet the new repub crook (business built on insurance fraud) wants to allow the insurance companies to raise rates here by 25-50 percent because of 'sinkhole' liability.
    Does anyone here have any idea as to how many incidents of 'sinkhole' damage has been here in the last ten years?

    Another boozle swindle deal by the head crook in charge.
    Many will see their mortgage payment smaller than insurance bill!
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    Mar 23, 2011 4:59 PM GMT
    southbeach1500 said
    Christian73 saidMaybe we'll finally be able to buy. icon_lol.gif


    Why would you want to own property? Shouldn't all property belong to the state?
    For the same reason you do.. knock it off jane.
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    Mar 23, 2011 5:06 PM GMT
    southbeach1500 said
    Christian73 saidMaybe we'll finally be able to buy. icon_lol.gif


    Why would you want to own property? Shouldn't all property belong to the state?


    You're so sadly reductive... I'm not a communist; I'm a democratic socialist. I'm not even anti-capitalist except in the fevered dreams of right-wingers.
  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Mar 23, 2011 5:22 PM GMT
    TropicalMark said... knock it off jane.





    southbeach jane is "off her meds" again....


    icon_eek.gif
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    Mar 23, 2011 6:59 PM GMT
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-23/u-s-new-home-sales-fell-in-february-to-record-low-250-000-rate.html

    U.S. New-Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall to Lowest on Record

    Purchases of new U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in February to the slowest pace on record and prices dropped to the lowest level since December 2003, adding to evidence the industry is floundering.

    Sales decreased 16.9 percent to a 250,000 annual pace, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a gain to a 290,000 rate, according to the median estimate. The median price fell 8.9 percent from the same month in 2010.

    Builders are struggling to compete with existing homes as foreclosures add to the overhang of unsold properties and drive down values. The figures underscore the Federal Reserve’s view that the housing market “continues to be depressed” even as the rest of the economy improves.

    “We’ve got this tug of war going on where we’ve got this very weak housing sector and a manufacturing sector that’s doing fine,” said Brian Jones, an economist at Societe Generale in New York, whose 240,000 forecast was the lowest in the Bloomberg survey. “The new and existing home sales numbers were abysmal. You could say that part of it was attributable to unusually harsh weather.”

    Previously owned home purchases dropped 9.6 percent in February, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed two days ago. The median home price fell to a 9-year-low, while the supply of unsold properties rose.

    Home sales estimates of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ranged from 240,000 to 325,000.