Jobless rate puts Obama's re-election in significant peril - includes an article from The Democratic Strategist

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    Jun 03, 2011 10:26 PM GMT
    Nothing is certain, but things are looking difficult for this Administration

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303657404576363141468371956.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories
    Jobless Rate Rises as Pace of Hiring Slows

    Hiring by U.S. companies slowed dramatically in May and the unemployment rate kept rising, adding to concerns the jobs market will still take years to heal as the economy's recovery remains weak. .....

    http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2011/06/jobs_and_votes_connection.php

    [Nate Silver is a popular and respected analyst by the left, btw. His blog appears in the New York Times]
    Nate Silver's investigation of the relationship of the unemployment rate to presidential re-election prospects will probably become a staple of poly sci courses, with its rigorous analysis of the data and prudent conclusions. It might also be good for Journalism majors to chew on it, especially aspiring political writers, since it provides a good example of why the rag of record hired Silver -- to give some data-driven heft to their reportage.

    Credit Silver with doing a lot of good work and providing intelligent analysis, such as the following:

    Historically, the relationship between the unemployment rate and a president's performance at the next election is complicated and tenuous...An article in today's Times notes, for example, that "no American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won a second term in office when the unemployment rate on Election Day topped 7.2 percent." The 7.2 percent figure refers to Ronald Reagan, who resoundingly won a second term when the unemployment rate was at that number in November 1984. ...

    http://www.badcartridge.com/index.php?showtopic=17449

    On the Maddeningly Inexact Relationship Between Unemployment and Re-Election

    Make no mistake: the higher the unemployment rate in November 2012, the less likely President Obama is to win a second term.

    But we should be careful about asserting that there is any particular threshold at which Mr. Obama would go from favorite to underdog, or any magic number at which his re-election would either become impossible or a fait accompli. Historically, the relationship between the unemployment rate and a president’s performance on Election Day is complicated and tenuous. ...
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    Jun 04, 2011 3:30 PM GMT
    Regarding the discussion of the 9.1% unemployment rate in the other thread, whatever spin anyone wants to make, voters tend to hold the current administration accountable. Whatever was inherited, whatever the history, the mood is heavily influenced by current trends. Are things getting better or not?
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    Jun 05, 2011 12:19 AM GMT
    The only thing that needs to be answered is that the repubs sold out the country on the tax issue.. now that they CUT taxes on the rich so that it would' create jobs".............

    didnt work did it? Never has... never will..
    The rich got more tax cuts, and the working class is still losing jobs or they still aren't being 'created'..........
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    Jun 05, 2011 3:09 AM GMT
    This Administration said if stimulus money were spent, the unemployment rate would not go above 8%. Their analysis was wrong and their policies did not work.

    Many small businesses, where the real job growth occurs, are not hiring because of the uncertainties in the cost of creating jobs, the uncertainties largely due to the business hostile policies of the Administration.

    As far as large business go, look at Boeing building a new plant and trying to bring new jobs to a business-friendly, right-to-work state, South Carolina. Despite the fact that no jobs would be lost in the unionized State of Washington, the NLRB, chaired by an Obama-appointee, ex-union official, is fighting Boeing. The NLRB will ultimately lose, but suppose Boeing decided, or other companies without any publicity decided to move the work overseas. Then US jobs would be lost permanently.

    This Administration is an adversary instead of a partner to the job creators. If the historical trend holds, and the Republicans put up a decent candidate, which they likely will, this Administration will be over in 2012 and jobs will increase. It's just unfortunate people are suffering, but under our democracy, the voters made a horrendous decision in 2008. Odds are they learned their lesson, but suffered the consequences of their decision for 4 years.
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    Jun 05, 2011 4:11 AM GMT
    socalfitness said and the Republicans put up a decent candidate, which they likely will,
    Regardless of one's political party leanings....

    You have GOT to be kidding!

    Who? icon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gif
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    Jun 05, 2011 4:29 AM GMT
    TropicalMark said
    socalfitness said and the Republicans put up a decent candidate, which they likely will,
    Regardless of one's political party leanings....

    You have GOT to be kidding!

    Who? icon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gif

    Will tell you one thing. I was talking with a very religious Jew, who until recently would not set foot in Germany, even to change planes. He told me he despised Obama so much for his ideology and mid-east policy that he would vote for Hitler over Obama.
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    Jun 05, 2011 4:32 AM GMT
    socalfitness said
    TropicalMark said
    socalfitness said and the Republicans put up a decent candidate, which they likely will,
    Regardless of one's political party leanings....

    You have GOT to be kidding!

    Who? icon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gif

    Will tell you one thing. I was talking with a very religious Jew, who until recently would not set foot in Germany, even to change planes. He told me he despised Obama so much for his ideology and mid-east policy that he would vote for Hitler over Obama.
    Sick people say sick things.. I'm sure that any Holocaust survivor wouldnt take kindly to your "very religious jew"
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    Jun 05, 2011 4:56 AM GMT
    TropicalMark said
    socalfitness said
    TropicalMark said
    socalfitness said and the Republicans put up a decent candidate, which they likely will,
    Regardless of one's political party leanings....

    You have GOT to be kidding!

    Who? icon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gif

    Will tell you one thing. I was talking with a very religious Jew, who until recently would not set foot in Germany, even to change planes. He told me he despised Obama so much for his ideology and mid-east policy that he would vote for Hitler over Obama.
    Sick people say sick things.. I'm sure that any Holocaust survivor wouldnt take kindly to your "very religious jew"

    Perhaps you're right on that, but why don't you comment on how jobs would be impacted if Boeing took their jobs overseas.
  • Webster666

    Posts: 9217

    Jun 05, 2011 10:06 AM GMT
    If the Republicans put up a screaming radical right wing union busting Medicare killing religious nut (which they will), the President can sit back and relax as he coasts to a landslide victory.


    mcyixc.jpg
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    Jun 05, 2011 2:42 PM GMT
    socalfitness said
    TropicalMark said
    socalfitness said
    TropicalMark said
    socalfitness said and the Republicans put up a decent candidate, which they likely will,
    Regardless of one's political party leanings....

    You have GOT to be kidding!

    Who? icon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gif

    Will tell you one thing. I was talking with a very religious Jew, who until recently would not set foot in Germany, even to change planes. He told me he despised Obama so much for his ideology and mid-east policy that he would vote for Hitler over Obama.
    Sick people say sick things.. I'm sure that any Holocaust survivor wouldnt take kindly to your "very religious jew"

    Perhaps you're right on that, but why don't you comment on how jobs would be impacted if Boeing took their jobs overseas.
    Thats terrible.. now why dont you comment on the fact that the TAX CUTS to the rich and corporate world to 'create jobs' FAILED miserably.
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    Jun 05, 2011 2:50 PM GMT
    TropicalMark said.... now why dont you comment on the fact that the TAX CUTS to the rich and corporate world to 'create jobs' FAILED miserably.

    The jobs creation has been undermined by the uncertainty in the business community of the cost to maintain a job and the hostile view of the administration towards businesses. That is what undermined the effect of the tax cuts. But regardless, the theme of the thread is the relationship of the indicators to chances of reelection. And the inconvenient truth is voters tend to hold the Administration responsible, and all the excuses and finger-pointing will only make them look worse.
  • HndsmKansan

    Posts: 16311

    Jun 05, 2011 3:26 PM GMT
    Nice try Socal... but the tale will really be born by what happens between now and election day. This is a "wish" thread and if you are going to succeed, you had better have a crop of better candidates....
    icon_biggrin.gif
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    Jun 05, 2011 3:35 PM GMT
    socalfitness said
    TropicalMark said.... now why dont you comment on the fact that the TAX CUTS to the rich and corporate world to 'create jobs' FAILED miserably.

    The jobs creation has been undermined by the uncertainty in the business community of the cost to maintain a job and the hostile view of the administration towards businesses. That is what undermined the effect of the tax cuts. But regardless, the theme of the thread is the relationship of the indicators to chances of reelection. And the inconvenient truth is voters tend to hold the Administration responsible, and all the excuses and finger-pointing will only make them look worse.


    This whole "uncertainty" meme is completely void of any authenticity. If consumers were able to purchase goods and services, then companies would hire. Since all the wealth and profit is being siphoned off by the top few percent, while the few remaining sectors that are bastions of middle class America (e.g. union jobs) are under attack, AND the cost of basics like healthcare, gas, and food are rising astronomically, there is no money around to spend and hence no demand leading to an increase in hiring.

    The claim of "uncertainty" is just a hollow excuse touted by those who want MORE tax cuts and less regulation. icon_rolleyes.gif
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    Jun 05, 2011 4:06 PM GMT
    HndsmKansan saidNice try Socal... but the tale will really be born by what happens between now and election day. This is a "wish" thread and if you are going to succeed, you had better have a crop of better candidates....
    icon_biggrin.gif

    The candidates are fine. It is a rhetoric from your mainstream media perpetuating the myth that they are weak. Some stronger than others, of course, but ultimately when the Republicans come together on a candidate, seeing the alternative, they will be effective. Prediction of course.

    The historical trend, as documented by a Democratic site, is fact, and that is what has Democrats worried, despite the bravado on the surface.
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    Jun 05, 2011 4:10 PM GMT
    Christian73 said...The claim of "uncertainty" is just a hollow excuse touted by those who want MORE tax cuts and less regulation. icon_rolleyes.gif

    Numerous articles and interviews from the businesses, small and large point to this with clarity, most recently an article riddler cited of an interview on a plane between a liberal economics professor and a small business owner. Even moderate Democrats understand the insanity of additional taxes and regulation on business in this climate, but the far left will hold to their ideology, as usual.
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    Jun 05, 2011 4:30 PM GMT
    socalfitness said
    HndsmKansan saidNice try Socal... but the tale will really be born by what happens between now and election day. This is a "wish" thread and if you are going to succeed, you had better have a crop of better candidates....
    icon_biggrin.gif

    The candidates are fine. It is a rhetoric from your mainstream media perpetuating the myth that they are weak. Some stronger than others, of course, but ultimately when the Republicans come together on a candidate, seeing the alternative, they will be effective. Prediction of course.

    The historical trend, as documented by a Democratic site, is fact, and that is what has Democrats worried, despite the bravado on the surface.

    One other thing to point out is this is not the Democratic Party of the 90s. Clinton was a pragmatist rather than an ideologue and worked with the Republicans. The net effect was a healthy economy, to the credit of both Democrats and Republicans. Clinton's general comments here show a pragmatic attitude on today's issue. From his comments, he does not support the current Democratic tactic of skirting the issue.
    http://nation.foxnews.com/bill-clinton/2011/05/25/bill-clintons-private-words-paul-ryan-caught-tape
    That the Congressional Democrats are in sync with the Administration shows the party is currently following an ideologue, not a pragmatist. If we do have a repeat of Jimmy Carter, hopefully the party will move more to the center and support instead of hinder the economy.