New Poll: Public Policy Polling reports "Obama in Peril": No longer leads Romney, and falls behind among Independents

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  Jul 21, 2011 2:11 PM GMT

  For those who refuse to read from the Weekly Standard, link to polling source below
  
  http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/uh-oh-new-polls-spell-trouble-obama_577191.html
  
  For the first time since last July Barack Obama does not lead Mitt Romney in PPP's monthly national poll on the 2012 Presidential race. Romney has now pulled into a tie with the President at 45%.
  
  Obama's approval rating this month is 46% with 48% of voters disapproving of him. There are 2 things particularly troubling in his numbers: independents split against him by a 44/49 margin, and 16% of Democrats are unhappy with the job he's doing while only 10% of Republicans give him good marks. Republicans dislike him at this point to a greater extent than Democrats like him and that will be a problem for him moving forward if it persists.
  
  Romney takes advantage of those 2 points of weakness for Obama. He leads the President by 9 points with independents at 46-37. And he earns more crossover support, getting 13% of the Democratic vote while only 8% of Republicans are behind Obama.
  
  And PPP isn't alone. Obama's been at 42 percent approval in the last couple of measures of Gallup's rolling average with 50 and 48 percent disapproval.
  
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  http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/07/obama-in-perilous-shape.html
  
  ...So if you dig deeper into the numbers Obama's position is a lot worse than meets the eye. There's a very good chance Obama would lose if he had to stand for reelection today....

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  Jul 21, 2011 2:29 PM GMT

  Excepting the fact that Romney is loathed by Republicans and Democrats alike, does not excite the Tea Party base, and Obama remains incredibly poplar as a person. Just some minor details to consider before crowing again.

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  Jul 21, 2011 2:36 PM GMT

  Christian73 saidExcepting the fact that Romney is loathed by Republicans and Democrats alike, does not excite the Tea Party base, and Obama remains incredibly poplar as a person. Just some minor details to consider before crowing again.

  
  Point well taken, although loath is not correct. "Unpopular among some Republicans and Democrats" would be more accurate. The important thing is it is more indicative of Obama than Romney. The other thing: the weaker Obama starts to appear and is seen increasingly as a lame duck, the more likely moderate Democrats will be willing to oppose his policies.

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• Webster666
  
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  Jul 21, 2011 8:11 PM GMT

  First of all, the Republicans will NEVER nominate anyone as centrist as Romney. Yes, for a Republican, he's centrist.
  
  Following are the latest Real Clear Politics poll numbers (the average of a lot of different polls).
  
  Obama vs.
  Romney = OBAMA +4.4
  Bachmann = OBAMA +12.5
  Pawlenty = OBAMA +13.4
  Palin = OBAMA +20.0
  Cain = OBAMA +16.3
  Gingrich = OBAMA +14.7
  Paul = OBAMA +10.7
  Huntsman = OBAMA +14.0
  
  Looks like OBAMA in a landslide.
  
  
  
  

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• rnch
  
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  Jul 21, 2011 8:14 PM GMT

  Webster666 saidFirst of all, the Republicans will NEVER nominate anyone as centrist as Romney. Yes, for a Republican, he's centrist.
  
  Following are the latest Real Clear Politics poll numbers (the average of a lot of different polls).
  
  Obama vs.
  Romney = OBAMA +4.4
  Bachmann = OBAMA +12.5
  Pawlenty = OBAMA +13.4
  Palin = OBAMA +20.0
  Cain = OBAMA +16.3
  Gingrich = OBAMA +14.7
  Paul = OBAMA +10.7
  Huntsman = OBAMA +14.0
  
  Looks like OBAMA in a landslide.
  
  
  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  
  socal/lord piffle owned (once again!) by webster

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  Jul 21, 2011 8:26 PM GMT

  rnch said

  Webster666 saidFirst of all, the Republicans will NEVER nominate anyone as centrist as Romney. Yes, for a Republican, he's centrist.
  
  Following are the latest Real Clear Politics poll numbers (the average of a lot of different polls).
  
  Obama vs.
  Romney = OBAMA +4.4
  Bachmann = OBAMA +12.5
  Pawlenty = OBAMA +13.4
  Palin = OBAMA +20.0
  Cain = OBAMA +16.3
  Gingrich = OBAMA +14.7
  Paul = OBAMA +10.7
  Huntsman = OBAMA +14.0
  
  Looks like OBAMA in a landslide.
  

  
  socal/lord piffle owned (once again!) by webster

  
  The poll I cited is very new. Some in the RCP average go back to June 3, although there are some newer ones with mixed results. The important thing is the TREND. Obama has been sinking. In the past few weeks all polls showed him leading named Republicans because of the bully pulpit, but now this is the beginning of the trend away from that. More significantly, if your attention span permits it, if you look at the Public Policy Polling link I provided, and look at more of their data, you will understand the precariousness of Obama's position.

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• mke_bt
  
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  Jul 22, 2011 12:34 AM GMT

  
  928 registered voters polled. Funny how everyone screams "look at how few they polled" when the numbers don't support their positions.
  Personally, I feel polling can be quite an exact science and huge numbers of people aren't needed to get an reasonably accurate sample. IF questions are objective. I'm a Nielsen household and apparently the voice of 27,000 viewers.

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  Jul 22, 2011 4:33 AM GMT

  Oh, I don't think it's so impossible that the Repubs would nominate Romney, holding their noses as they do it. It's not as if there's any other terribly plausible candidate right now. While many of them may prefer to vote for implausible candidates in the primaries, there may be just enough relatively rational Repubs to allow Romney to win the nomination as the most electable of a mostly pathetic bunch.
  
  Actually, Huntsman might be more electable, but I don't think he has a chance in hell of getting the nomination.
  
  And much as many of them may dislike and distrust Romney, their pathological hatred of Obama is such that most would probably reluctantly go out and vote for Romney in the general.
  
  Meanwhile, Obama is certainly not looking like a strong candidate right now. The Democrats who think he's too far left might well vote for Romney. That's probably a smallish group. The larger group of Democrats who think he's too far right would probably reluctantly vote for him.
  
  It could be quite close.
  
  But a lot can and doubtless will happen in the next 15 months, making strong predictions at the moment rather pointless.
  
  I do think there's a huge amount of ammunition that can be used against Romney. But Obama's no prize either.
  
  Sad, sad, sad. But not surprising.
  

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• GQjock
  
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  Jul 22, 2011 10:57 AM GMT

  You mean the Romney who invented the Obama Healthcare Plan ? That Romney? ...... LOL
  
  Oh I SO look forward to THAT

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• rnch
  
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  Jul 22, 2011 11:07 AM GMT

  President obama's going to kick azze in his second term.
  
  
  
  

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  Jul 22, 2011 6:01 PM GMT

  GQjock saidYou mean the Romney who invented the Obama Healthcare Plan ? That Romney? ...... LOL
  
  Oh I SO look forward to THAT

  
  
  Yes, that same Romney, whose flaws as a candidate I'm well aware of, as you can tell not only from what I wrote above (e.g., "[T]here's a huge amount of ammunition that can be used against Romney") but also from a recent post of mine on the second page of the thread at http://www.realjock.com/gayforums/1682215?forumpage=1 (where it's currently the last post).
  
  While Romney would be a very vulnerable candidate on a number of levels, at the moment it seems possible to me that Obama might nonetheless lose to him. And I am very sorry to say that. I hope that it doesn't happen. I hope that things change by next November. But I can't say that I'm enthusiastic about Obama.
  
  Right now I think that almost anything could happen next November (including Romney winning the presidency while the House goes back to the Democrats).

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