Are We Heading Towards A Depression...?

  • masculumpedes

    Posts: 5549

    Jul 22, 2011 11:40 AM GMT
    UnsustainableEconomy.jpg

    I read this story on the internet this morning and it made me think. Are we heading towards another depression? What do you think?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/return-mass-layoffs-grim-sign-u-workers-190228219.html
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    Jul 22, 2011 11:48 AM GMT

    I am not an expert in this area...but I've been saying this for the last two years.
    I had some hopes that the decline would lessen or perhaps even stop, but there are NO signs that it has or will in the near future.
    And with the current drought situation in our farm lands...this is all sounding like a repeat of the Grapes of Wrath
    IN MY OPINION, this country is LONG overdue for an earth-shaking ass kicking. People should open their eyes and put a stop to the petty bitching in Washington and take matters into their own hands...before it's too late.
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    Jul 22, 2011 11:57 AM GMT
    I tried some of that CareFree gum, but it didn't work. As soon as it lost it's flavor, I was back to worrying about the economy.icon_lol.gif
  • masculumpedes

    Posts: 5549

    Jul 22, 2011 12:44 PM GMT
    Friendsrbetter said
    I am not an expert in this area...but I've been saying this for the last two years.
    I had some hopes that the decline would lessen or perhaps even stop, but there are NO signs that it has or will in the near future.
    And with the current drought situation in our farm lands...this is all sounding like a repeat of the Grapes of Wrath
    IN MY OPINION, this country is LONG overdue for an earth-shaking ass kicking. People should open their eyes and put a stop to the petty bitching in Washington and take matters into their own hands...before it's too late.


    I think that this will only happen when enough people are affected personally. It's like the community that I live in. No one seems interested or concerned about vandalism until it affects something that they personally own. icon_confused.gif
  • slimnmuscly

    Posts: 541

    Jul 22, 2011 2:20 PM GMT
    Yes. Here's why, from Paul Krugman, whose predictions have been spot on all throughout what he's calling the Lesser Depression:

    Right now we’re looking at not one but two looming crises, either of which could produce a global disaster. In the United States, right-wing fanatics in Congress may block a necessary rise in the debt ceiling, potentially wreaking havoc in world financial markets. Meanwhile, if the plan just agreed to by European heads of state fails to calm markets, we could see falling dominoes all across southern Europe — which would also wreak havoc in world financial markets.

    We can only hope that the politicians huddled in Washington and Brussels succeed in averting these threats. But here’s the thing: Even if we manage to avoid immediate catastrophe, the deals being struck on both sides of the Atlantic are almost guaranteed to make the broader economic slump worse. ...

    For those who know their 1930s history, this is all too familiar. If either of the current debt negotiations fails, we could be about to replay 1931, the global banking collapse that made the Great Depression great. But, if the negotiations succeed, we will be set to replay the great mistake of 1937: the premature turn to fiscal contraction that derailed economic recovery and ensured that the Depression would last until World War II finally provided the boost the economy needed.

    As for why we're still in this mess:

    The great housing bubble of the last decade, which was both an American and a European phenomenon, was accompanied by a huge rise in household debt. When the bubble burst, home construction plunged, and so did consumer spending as debt-burdened families cut back.

    Everything might still have been O.K. if other major economic players had stepped up their spending, filling the gap left by the housing plunge and the consumer pullback. But nobody did. In particular, cash-rich corporations see no reason to invest that cash in the face of weak consumer demand.

    Nor did governments do much to help. Some governments — those of weaker nations in Europe, and state and local governments here — were actually forced to slash spending in the face of falling revenues. And the modest efforts of stronger governments — including, yes, the Obama stimulus plan — were, at best, barely enough to offset this forced austerity.
  • dannyboy1101

    Posts: 977

    Jul 22, 2011 2:24 PM GMT
    Ironic since cisco and Lockheed Martin were both recently listed in a "ten companies that will save the USA economy".

    I don't know if there's an answer to the situation we are stuck in, but believe you me, eventually a crazy will go postal after being unemployed for years and that may be the only wakeup call Washington will hear. That or some "vote them all out" elections
  • dannyboy1101

    Posts: 977

    Jul 22, 2011 2:28 PM GMT
    So what year are we mirroring right now? How close are we to doom? icon_sad.gif


    slimnmuscly saidYes. Here's why, from Paul Krugman, whose predictions have been spot on all throughout what he's calling the Lesser Depression:

    Right now we’re looking at not one but two looming crises, either of which could produce a global disaster. In the United States, right-wing fanatics in Congress may block a necessary rise in the debt ceiling, potentially wreaking havoc in world financial markets. Meanwhile, if the plan just agreed to by European heads of state fails to calm markets, we could see falling dominoes all across southern Europe — which would also wreak havoc in world financial markets.

    We can only hope that the politicians huddled in Washington and Brussels succeed in averting these threats. But here’s the thing: Even if we manage to avoid immediate catastrophe, the deals being struck on both sides of the Atlantic are almost guaranteed to make the broader economic slump worse. ...

    For those who know their 1930s history, this is all too familiar. If either of the current debt negotiations fails, we could be about to replay 1931, the global banking collapse that made the Great Depression great. But, if the negotiations succeed, we will be set to replay the great mistake of 1937: the premature turn to fiscal contraction that derailed economic recovery and ensured that the Depression would last until World War II finally provided the boost the economy needed.

    As for why we're still in this mess:

    The great housing bubble of the last decade, which was both an American and a European phenomenon, was accompanied by a huge rise in household debt. When the bubble burst, home construction plunged, and so did consumer spending as debt-burdened families cut back.

    Everything might still have been O.K. if other major economic players had stepped up their spending, filling the gap left by the housing plunge and the consumer pullback. But nobody did. In particular, cash-rich corporations see no reason to invest that cash in the face of weak consumer demand.

    Nor did governments do much to help. Some governments — those of weaker nations in Europe, and state and local governments here — were actually forced to slash spending in the face of falling revenues. And the modest efforts of stronger governments — including, yes, the Obama stimulus plan — were, at best, barely enough to offset this forced austerity.
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    Jul 22, 2011 2:30 PM GMT
    slimnmuscly saidYes. Here's why, from Paul Krugman, whose predictions have been spot on all throughout what he's calling the Lesser Depression:


    While a stopped clock is right twice a day, for the record, Paul Krugman's predictions have rarely been right when it has come to his public opinion pieces - but that's probably because he writes as a polemic. Look at his changing views on the stimulus for example. Let's also not forget he used to be on the board of Enron and heap praise on its innovation.
  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Jul 22, 2011 3:22 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    slimnmuscly saidYes. Here's why, from Paul Krugman, whose predictions have been spot on all throughout what he's calling the Lesser Depression:


    While a stopped clock is right twice a day, for the record, Paul Krugman's predictions have rarely been right when it has come to his public opinion pieces - but that's probably because he writes as a polemic. Look at his changing views on the stimulus for example. Let's also not forget he used to be on the board of Enron and heap praise on its innovation.





    riddler, let's also not forget that Krugman is a nobel prize winner in economics and has taught at yale, MIT and stanford universities; and is the author or editor of 20 books and more than 200 papers and journals in professional journals...as well as a twice weekly, long term contributor at one of the most respected newspapers in the world.

    riddler, what are YOUR qualifications in the economics field? (your own inflated self-worth and smug sense of self-entitlement don't count)


    icon_question.gif

  • MikemikeMike

    Posts: 6932

    Jul 22, 2011 3:25 PM GMT
    with Obama and his trillions of dollars in debt which he keeps adding to like water...the answer is YES.
  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Jul 22, 2011 3:44 PM GMT
    southbeach1500 said
    rnch said
    riddler, let's also not forget that Krugman is a nobel prize winner in economics and has taught at yale, MIT and stanford universities; and is the author or editor of 20 books and more than 200 papers and journals in professional journals...as well as a twice weekly, long term contributor at one of the most respected newspapers in the world.



    And our good President is also a nobel prize winner too, and a Harvard professor.... and he's been completely disastrous on the economy and promoting "peace" around the world.





    and about YOUR qualifications to be a Political Pundit, jane......




    icon_lol.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jul 22, 2011 4:02 PM GMT
    Yes! Unemployment (U-6 NOT U-3) is above 11%, home prices have fallen more than in the Great Depression, and when the budget is cut one of the final pillars of strength will go.
  • TheIStrat

    Posts: 777

    Jul 22, 2011 4:02 PM GMT
    We're already in one
  • HndsmKansan

    Posts: 16311

    Jul 22, 2011 4:04 PM GMT
    Nope, I don't, but we have one, things will be a lot worse than they are now.
  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Jul 22, 2011 4:17 PM GMT
    southbeach1500 said....
    But back to the OP... we ARE in the Obama Depression, despite the funny math the government is using to under-report unemployment and overstate economic activity.




    Incorrect.



    shouldn't it be called "The Bush Depression"...since his Presidency brought it on?




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  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jul 22, 2011 4:21 PM GMT
    oh sure it's Bushs fault, those darn republicans, if it wasn't for them there would be no depression and unicorns would fart rainbows!!
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jul 22, 2011 4:27 PM GMT
    southbeach1500 said
    But back to the OP... we ARE in the Obama Depression, despite the funny math the government is using to under-report unemployment and overstate economic activity.


    How interesting. First, the problems in Greece, Portugal, Italy and Iceland, to name a few, are part of the "Obama Depression". I had not idea our President's economic policies, gradually enacted since 2008, could have such far-reaching implications.

    Second, the chief culprits in the United States were the ludicrous overspending on two wars in the 2001-2008 period....essentially driving the U.S. economy PARTIALLY in the direction (but unlike southbeach, I won't overstate) taken by the Soviet economy in the 1980s....the military tail wagging the Soviet Union dog. The other chief culprit was the disgraceful policies of the banks in fueling the housing bubble that eventually collapsed.

    Third, we are not in a depression. We certainly were in a recession or a mini depression. The stock market dove from 14,043 to 6594.44 in March 2009. The dive occurred the last year of the Bush Administration and the first half year of Obama's...so to claim President Obama's policies were responsible is so ludicrous it borders on insane. The tea party fanatics keep mouthing such insane mischaracterizations.... The stock market is now around 12000.....that's quite a recovery.

    I'm not saying that the stock market is a sole indicator of the economy by any means. I'm saying that what I see here on this thread is a lot of comments about how bad things are....and a lot of it sounds like the Dursley kid in the first Harry Potter movie whining that he ONLY got 36 birthday presents. Please.....
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    Jul 22, 2011 7:07 PM GMT
    rnch said
    riddler78 said
    slimnmuscly saidYes. Here's why, from Paul Krugman, whose predictions have been spot on all throughout what he's calling the Lesser Depression:


    While a stopped clock is right twice a day, for the record, Paul Krugman's predictions have rarely been right when it has come to his public opinion pieces - but that's probably because he writes as a polemic. Look at his changing views on the stimulus for example. Let's also not forget he used to be on the board of Enron and heap praise on its innovation.


    riddler, let's also not forget that Krugman is a nobel prize winner in economics and has taught at yale, MIT and stanford universities; and is the author or editor of 20 books and more than 200 papers and journals in professional journals...as well as a twice weekly, long term contributor at one of the most respected newspapers in the world.

    riddler, what are YOUR qualifications in the economics field? (your own inflated self-worth and smug sense of self-entitlement don't count)
    icon_question.gif



    I differentiate between his polemicism and his scholarly work - which many other scholarly academics point to (while they might cringe at his columns). I didn't realize that qualifications were necessary to hold someone accountable to *predictions* which is what was being argued.

    Did you perhaps miss that while fawning over his qualifications?
  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Jul 22, 2011 7:14 PM GMT
    [quote][cite]riddler78 said....
    I differentiate between his polemicism and his scholarly work - which many other scholarly academics point to (while they might cringe at his columns). I didn't realize that qualifications were necessary to hold someone accountable to *predictions* which is what was being argued or did you miss that while fawning over his qualifications? [/quote]




    translation: riddler has no formal education/training in economics; having "stayed at a holiday inn express last night" is the extent of his "training".


    icon_lol.gif
  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Jul 22, 2011 7:22 PM GMT
    [quote][cite]riddler78 said....while fawning over his qualifications? [/quote]



    "fawning" icon_question.gif




    icon_lol.gif



    i merely re-printed part of his bio from the new york times website...their words, not mine.



    icon_lol.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jul 22, 2011 7:23 PM GMT
    Comparison of current recession to the great depression:
    http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/recession_depression/
    Data is two years old, but still good comparison.
  • BIG_N_TALL

    Posts: 2190

    Jul 22, 2011 7:27 PM GMT
    My grandmother, who lived through the "Great Depression," said that we are already in a depression now. She told me a few days ago while watching the evening news at her house that anyone who thinks this is a "recession" is a "fool." She also went on to say that her life now and the lives of people she knows today reminds her of how her life was in the 1930s before WW2. The news tends to remind her more of propaganda than actual factual news with regard to the economics of the USA. That should speak volumes.
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    Jul 22, 2011 7:31 PM GMT
    rnch said[quote][cite]riddler78 said....
    I differentiate between his polemicism and his scholarly work - which many other scholarly academics point to (while they might cringe at his columns). I didn't realize that qualifications were necessary to hold someone accountable to *predictions* which is what was being argued or did you miss that while fawning over his qualifications?





    translation: riddler has no formal education/training in economics; having "stayed at a holiday inn express last night" is the extent of his "training".


    icon_lol.gif[/quote]


    Once again you ignore the basic issue - despite his qualifications, his predictions are all over the map and on most of the big issues he has been consistently wrong.

    I chose not to answer your question because it is irrelevant and which makes at least one false assumption. Again my question to you: what qualifications are required to hold someone accountable for predictions?
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jul 22, 2011 7:43 PM GMT
    Do I think there will be another depression?
    I won't call it a depression, it'll be way worse. The U.S. has no other choice but to borrow more money each year and struggle just to make interest payments.
    When the U.S. and Europe financially fail...and they will. The fine folks at the "World Bank" will step in to save us.
    They wont come to save us...they will come to enslave us.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jul 22, 2011 7:48 PM GMT
    Alpha1 saidMy grandmother, who lived through the "Great Depression," said that we are already in a depression now. She told me a few days ago while watching the evening news at her house that anyone who thinks this is a "recession" is a "fool."


    My mother lived through the Depression and is alive now. There is no comparison to the impact of the Depression then, with its attendant Great Stockmarket Crash. The unemployment rate topped 21% nationally (not just locally). Whatever you call what we are coming out of now, it never was (and is not) equivalent to what happened then, arguably starting on October 29, 1929.

    So with all due respect to your grandmother, the fact that she calls people fools who observe that we don't have soup kitchen lines stretching for blocks, that people are not jumping out of buildings because their savings are gone due to bank collapses (and the Federal government not stepping in), I am afraid her recollection is faulty.

    But I am sure she is a very nice lady.icon_biggrin.gif