See link for entire article. Roll Call says this one is a toss up. The district has been Democrat since 1923.

Poll: Republican Bob Turner Takes Lead in New York Special
By Joshua Miller
Roll Call Staff
Sept. 9, 2011, 9:30 a.m.

Republican Bob Turner led the special election race for New York's 9th district in a Siena College poll released today.

For Democrats who hadn't already started to panic over Tuesday's special election in New York's Brooklyn- and Queens-based 9th Congressional district, now would be a good time to start.

Republican Bob Turner led Democrat David Weprin by 6 points in the nonpartisan Siena College poll released this morning.

The nonpartisan survey conducted Tuesday through late Thursday found 50 percent of those polled would vote for Turner if the election were held "today" while 44 percent would vote for Weprin. Six percent of the 886 likely voters polled said they were undecided.

The numbers have flipped from a Siena poll a month ago, when Weprin had a 6-point lead.