Greece Has 98% Chance of Default on Euro-Region Sovereign Woes (2-year government bonds currently yielding 76.7%)

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    Sep 13, 2011 10:14 PM GMT
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-12/greece-s-risk-of-default-increases-to-98-as-european-debt-crisis-deepens.html

    Greece has a 98 percent chance of defaulting on its debt in the next five years as Prime Minister George Papandreou fails to reassure investors his country can survive the euro-region crisis.

    “Everyone’s pricing in a pretty near-term default and I think it’ll be a hard event,” said Peter Tchir, founder of hedge fund TF Market Advisors in New York. “Clearly this austerity plan is not working.”

    It costs a record $5.8 million upfront and $100,000 annually to insure $10 million of Greece’s debt for five years using credit-default swaps, up from $5.5 million in advance on Sept. 9, according to CMA. Greek bonds plunged, sending the 10- year yield to 25 percent for the first time.

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she won’t let Greece go into “uncontrolled insolvency” as politicians try to limit contagion to other euro members. Papandreou’s pledge to adhere to deficit targets that are conditions of the European Union and International Monetary Fund’s bailout were undermined by data showing his country’s budget gap widened 22 percent in the first eight months of the year.

    The default probability for Greece is based on a standard pricing model that assumes investors would recover 40 percent of the bonds’ face value if the nation fails to meet its obligations. CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc. and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated credit- swaps market, lowered its recovery assumption to 38 percent late yesterday, which would give Greece a 95 percent chance of default.


    In other news, if you believe they won't default, the yield on a 2-year Greek Government bond is trading at 76.73%: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB2YR:IND
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    Sep 14, 2011 4:30 AM GMT
    riddler78 saidhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-12/greece-s-risk-of-default-increases-to-98-as-european-debt-crisis-deepens.html

    Greece has a 98 percent chance of defaulting on its debt in the next five years as Prime Minister George Papandreou fails to reassure investors his country can survive the euro-region crisis.

    “Everyone’s pricing in a pretty near-term default and I think it’ll be a hard event,” said Peter Tchir, founder of hedge fund TF Market Advisors in New York. “Clearly this austerity plan is not working.”

    It costs a record $5.8 million upfront and $100,000 annually to insure $10 million of Greece’s debt for five years using credit-default swaps, up from $5.5 million in advance on Sept. 9, according to CMA. Greek bonds plunged, sending the 10- year yield to 25 percent for the first time.

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she won’t let Greece go into “uncontrolled insolvency” as politicians try to limit contagion to other euro members. Papandreou’s pledge to adhere to deficit targets that are conditions of the European Union and International Monetary Fund’s bailout were undermined by data showing his country’s budget gap widened 22 percent in the first eight months of the year.

    The default probability for Greece is based on a standard pricing model that assumes investors would recover 40 percent of the bonds’ face value if the nation fails to meet its obligations. CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc. and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated credit- swaps market, lowered its recovery assumption to 38 percent late yesterday, which would give Greece a 95 percent chance of default.


    In other news, if you believe they won't default, the yield on a 2-year Greek Government bond is trading at 76.73%: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB2YR:IND


    WTF jesus fucking christ, recession 2.0 here we come!
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    Sep 14, 2011 4:33 AM GMT
    Chainers said
    jesus fucking christ
    Who the hell is that?icon_confused.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 14, 2011 4:37 AM GMT
    TropicalMark said
    Chainers said
    jesus fucking christ
    Who the hell is that?icon_confused.gif


    Its some weird ass kink where Jesus is fucking Christ.
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    Sep 14, 2011 4:38 AM GMT
    Trollileo said
    Chainers said
    TropicalMark said
    Chainers said
    jesus fucking christ
    Who the hell is that?icon_confused.gif


    Its some weird ass kink where Jesus is fucking Christ.
    jfc.jpg


    Please tell me you just made that...
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 14, 2011 4:38 AM GMT
    Chainers said
    TropicalMark said
    Chainers said
    jesus fucking christ
    Who the hell is that?icon_confused.gif


    Its some weird ass kink where Jesus is fucking Christ.
    Which one is the hot one?
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 14, 2011 4:38 AM GMT
    TropicalMark said
    Chainers said
    TropicalMark said
    Chainers said
    jesus fucking christ
    Who the hell is that?icon_confused.gif


    Its some weird ass kink where Jesus is fucking Christ.
    Which one is the hot one?


    The top one, duh, he is more manly.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 14, 2011 4:41 AM GMT
    Trollileo said
    Chainers saidPlease tell me you just made that...
    Oh my god I wish. Isn't that awesome, though?
    I LOVE it!
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 14, 2011 4:42 AM GMT
    TropicalMark said
    Trollileo said
    Chainers saidPlease tell me you just made that...
    Oh my god I wish. Isn't that awesome, though?
    I LOVE it!


    It literally made my day Trollileo...
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    Sep 14, 2011 4:44 AM GMT
    Chainers said
    TropicalMark said
    Trollileo said
    Chainers saidPlease tell me you just made that...
    Oh my god I wish. Isn't that awesome, though?
    I LOVE it!


    It literally made my day Trollileo...
    Ditto!
  • Vaughn

    Posts: 1880

    Sep 14, 2011 4:47 AM GMT
    Trollileo said
    Chainers said
    TropicalMark said
    Chainers said
    jesus fucking christ
    Who the hell is that?icon_confused.gif


    Its some weird ass kink where Jesus is fucking Christ.
    jfc.jpg


    And saved
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 14, 2011 5:54 AM GMT
    This thread is about Greece's debt and you two have turned it into a blasphemous joke. How disgusting.
    ----------------------------------------------------

    Greece's only other option is to pull out of the Euro Zone and revert back to their old currency, the Drachma.

    The Single European Currency was a very bad idea from the very start and it is now a sinking ship.

    Greece-ID109-5000.jpg
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    Sep 14, 2011 12:26 PM GMT
    Remarkably the yield has risen to 79.3% - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB2YR:IND

    That's just crazy for a government bond.
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    Sep 14, 2011 12:46 PM GMT
    jprichva said
    riddler78 saidRemarkably the yield has risen to 79.3% - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB2YR:IND

    That's just crazy for a government bond.

    And yet interest rates in the US are at their lowest point ever.
    Could it be that the inflation hawks are wrong----yet again?


    Or it's a flight to safety right now - given that commodity prices have risen dramatically over the last year - especially as we look at traditional hedges to inflation (that I am unconvinced are sustainable) like gold.
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    Jul 25, 2012 4:36 PM GMT
    two year Greek government bonds now yielding... 225.12%.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB2YR:IND

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/24/us-eurozone-greece-idUSBRE86N11D20120724

    Greece is unlikely to be able to pay what it owes and further debt restructuring is likely to be necessary, three EU officials said on Tuesday, a cost that would have to fall on the European Central Bank and euro zone governments.

    The officials said that twice bailed-out Greece would be found to be way off track by EU and International Monetary Fund officials who have been assessing the country.

    Inspectors from the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF -- together known as the troika -- returned to Athens on Tuesday and will complete their debt-sustainability analysis next month, but the sources said the conclusions were already becoming clear.

    It means Greece's official-sector creditors -- the ECB and euro zone governments -- will have to restructure some of the estimated 200 billion euros of Greek government debt they own if Athens is to be put back on a sustainable footing.

    But there is no willingness among member states or the ECB to take such dramatic action at this stage.

    "Greece is hugely off track," one of the officials told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "The debt-sustainability analysis will be pretty terrible."

    Another official pointed to the latest growth estimates from Athens, which show the economy contracting by 7 percent this year rather than the 5 percent previously forecast, meaning that the debt burden is only increasing in relation to GDP.

    "Nothing has been done in Greece for the past three or four months," said the official, referring to the delays caused by the two elections held since May.

    "The situation just goes from bad to worse, and with it the debt ratio," said the official, a policymaker directly involved in trying to find solutions to the crisis.
  • metta

    Posts: 39134

    Jul 25, 2012 4:58 PM GMT
    Chainers said
    riddler78 said



    WTF jesus fucking christ, recession 2.0 here we come!



    http://www.realjock.com/gayforums/2496712