Unemployment rate from 9% to 8.6% results significantly from people giving up looking for jobs

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    Dec 02, 2011 3:11 PM GMT
    Look at the numbers and don't be fooled by the the administration hype.
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    Dec 02, 2011 5:04 PM GMT
    "While part of the decrease was due to people leaving the labor force, the household survey from which the department calculates the unemployment rate also showed solid gains in employment.

    All the increase in nonfarm payrolls in November came from the private sector, where employment rose 140,000 after increasing 117,000 in October.

    Government employment fell by 20,000. Public payrolls have dropped in 10 of the past 11 months as state and local governments have tightened their belts.

    Outside of government, job gains were almost across the board, with retail surging 49,800.

    Elsewhere, construction payrolls fell 12,000 after losing 15,000 jobs in October. Factory jobs edged up 2,000, with most of the gains coming from automakers.

    Healthcare and social assistance hiring rose 18,700 after adding 30,300 jobs in October. Temporary hiring -- seen as a harbinger for future hiring - increased 22,300 after adding 15,800 jobs last month."

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobless-rate-drops-8-6-133402269.html

    the #s aren't gr8, but it's moving in the rt direction.
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    Dec 02, 2011 7:14 PM GMT
    http://www.npr.org/2011/12/02/143044146/u-s-unemployment-rate-drops-to-8-6-percent?ft=1&f=1006

    NPR: Jobless Dip May Overstate Economic Improvement

    The unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly to 8.6 percent in November, in part because hundreds of thousands of Americans stopped looking for work. But analysts said the modest increase of 120,000 jobs created last month points to an economy that's generally still limping.

    "These modest job gains are still not enough to propel economic growth to a sustainable 2 percent growth path," Kathy Bostjancic, director of macroeconomic analysis at The Conference Board, wrote in a response to Friday's unemployment report. "And while consumer sentiment is not as gloomy as this past summer, it remains quite low this holiday season."

    Ben Herzon, senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers, said the lower unemployment rate, which fell from 9 percent in October, is a "little extra bonus" to a report that shows otherwise expected modest gains.

    "I wouldn't take decline to 8.6 percent as a clear indication of significant improvement in labor market conditions, but part of it is," Herzon said.

    The jobless rate fell in part because roughly 315,000 people had given up looking for work in November and therefore are not counted as unemployed. Still, civilian employment rose by 278,000 and that's "enough of an increase to put downward pressure on the unemployment rate," Herzon said. ....
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    Dec 02, 2011 7:29 PM GMT
    jpBITCHva saidOh, yeah. I wouldn't be measuring for drapes in the White House, GOP.

    Look at the following three numbers. Each one individually is damaging, all three paint a picture showing the election is the Republicans to lose. However, I don't think anyone is overconfident. He will have a lot of money to run a negative campaign, so it will be important not to repeat the mistakes of McCain and run a vigorous campaign against him. There will be efforts by national organizations as well as at the grass roots level, very intense.

    Let's look at Obama versus generic Republican. That is more revealing than individual match-ups prior to the one nominee being selected. Anything for an incumbent below 50% spells problems.
    Gallup: Nov 3-4 Generic Republican 42% Obama 43%
    Rasmussen: Nov 29: Generic Republican 48%, Obama 42%

    1) If my memory serves me right, the highest percent unemployment that any president was reelected since 1922 was Regan with the percent at 7+.

    2) http://www.gallup.com/poll/151106/Obama-November-Approval-Weak-Historical-Perspective.aspx

    Obama's November Approval Weak From Historical Perspective
    Only Carter had lower job approval during November of his third year
    by Jeffrey M. Jones

    PRINCETON, NJ -- President Obama's 43% average job approval rating last month ranks as one of the lowest for an elected president in November of his third year in office. Only Jimmy Carter had a lower rating, at 40%. But Carter's rating surged in late November 1979 because of a rally in support after the onset of the Iranian Hostage Crisis, and he averaged above 50% in December. All recently elected presidents were at or above 50% in December of their third year in office.

    3) Country on wrong track 73.5%
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html