The IOWA CAUCUS and NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY Prediction Thread

  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19136

    Dec 30, 2011 10:57 PM GMT
    Okay guys, we have had, and will continue to have, much debate about these upcoming races, so let's have some fun and make some predictions. Pick you TOP 3 to finish in the first two major results by voters. I'll Start...


    IOWA CAUCUS

    1st - Romney

    2nd - Paul

    3rd - Gingrich



    NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY

    1st - Romney

    2nd- Huntsman (Wishful thinking I know, but I guy can dream)

    3rd - Paul


    Of course, there usually is a surprise in these first two, and I suspect this year will be no difference. Regardless, I suspect after New Hampshire we will see Santorum and Bachmann drop out of the race, and possibly Huntsman if he doesn't place in the top 3 in NH
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    Dec 30, 2011 11:02 PM GMT
    IOWA CAUCUS

    1st - Romney

    2nd - Paul

    3rd - Santorum (sorry)



    NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY

    1st - Romney

    2nd- Paul

    3rd - Gingrich

    (Don't know if this was cheating, but looked at RealClearPolitics polls, but consistent with what I was thinking.)
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    Dec 30, 2011 11:08 PM GMT
    IOWA CAUCUS

    1st - Paul ( I think he is going to sneak by as the winner)

    2nd - Romney

    3rd - Santorum (Gingrich is on a slide)


    NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY


    1st - Romney

    2nd- Paul

    3rd - Huntsman (same as above; the negative ads are crumbling Gingrich's support)
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    Dec 31, 2011 12:41 PM GMT
    Yes - I will predict Iowa and reserve NH - a LOT can happen in a week. Romney, Paul and WOW - the biggest surprise - Santorum, who rose from the coffin in the last month. Taking his place is Bachmann - what an implosion since late summer. Actually her Iowa straw poll first place finish was her apex. Perry got in the race and diverted oxygen and cash and interest from her. She really has no viable narrative going forward and particularly since she invested so much in Iowa and from a neighboring state where she won the straw poll. She currently is reduced to cringe-inducing video where she greets and sits with a sole voter at an event - telling the woman "well you got a presidential candidate and congressmember all to yourself" OUCH!!
  • HndsmKansan

    Posts: 16311

    Dec 31, 2011 1:46 PM GMT
    Of course it would be nice if they all fell flat on their faces, but we'll save that for a later date. Of this question:

    IOWA:

    1. Romney (only because the right wing support is splintered)

    2. Santorum (maybe he will have enough momentum)

    3. Paul (he might finish higher than this due to his ground support, but
    he has had some bad press this week).



    NH:

    1. Romney (I think it's a given)

    2. Huntsman (maybe, just maybe).....

    3. Gingrich (I think the Grinch is a fade out, but maybe he'll hang on a little longer).
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    Dec 31, 2011 1:48 PM GMT
    I still don't understand how a backwater like Iowa has the power to pick a president. New Hampshire too. I get that there is a history here, but seriously, neither has much of a population, or even much to do with the countries economy or intellectual/creative structure. How does this continue to happen? The right wing crazies in Iowa are going to whittle down the Republican choices? Really? The GOP is OK with that? This just seems insane to me.

    My choices from Iowa, because the Caucus's are run like a picnic for crazy white people: 1-Santorum, 2-Bachmann, 3-Paul.

    Hopefully Romney will drop out in disgrace.
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    Dec 31, 2011 3:10 PM GMT
    I'm hopin and praying for a santorum landslide!



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    Dec 31, 2011 3:12 PM GMT
    Its simple its based on STATE law that automatically jumps the primary/caucus to the front if any other state schedules its caucus/primary at a date earler than Iowa (caucus) or NH (primary)..
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    Dec 31, 2011 3:15 PM GMT
    TropicalMark saidI'm hopin and praying for a santorum landslide!





    wont happen Mark but he will finish a strong and surprising third...Unthinkable even a couple of weeks ago! Seems some of the evangelical vote is coalescing around him as they desert Newt and Bachman and even Perry (falling fast - she's essentially finished as it stands now after Iowa)..Another surprise: Santorum finishing ahead of Perry!!! With his position as current governor and his money vs an out of office former Senator who lost his last election by more than 15 points!
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    Dec 31, 2011 3:26 PM GMT
    TropicalMark saidI'm hopin and praying for a santorum landslide!

    To paraphrase a US Air Force General, when a reporter asked him which team he wanted to win in the annual Army-Navy football game:

    "I hope they all lose."

    [Original quote: "I hope they both lose."]
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19136

    Jan 01, 2012 4:20 PM GMT
    TropicalMark saidI'm hopin and praying for a santorum landslide!


    Never gonna happen. Even if by some wild out of left (okay right) field, Rick Santorum either wins or places 2nd or 3rd in Iowa, this will be a short-lived victory dance that will fizzle out rather quickly. More importantly, if something like that were to happen, it would prove to the entire country that Iowans don't have the brains to pick a candidate who can actually WIN a national election --- which means we should start rethinking giving them the power that these Iowa caucuses seem to think they have.
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    Jan 01, 2012 4:41 PM GMT
    Right now in Iowa Romney and Paul are only two points apart, the media is apparently of the same mindset as the Republican Party and doing their level best to ignore Paul. The Voting public recognizes these efforts to shut out Paul and if anything that fact may bring more out for Paul.


    Don't be surprised to see these results:

    1. Ron Paul


    2. Romney


    3. Santorum




    We may see a switch between Romney and Paul in NH because of Romney's popularity in the North East.

    I think Santorum is too far right to repeat his Iowa headway in NH

    As for Gingrich, I'm hoping that in spite of Large NEO CON support from the Israeli Lobby crowds money that the public will continue to put him further and further on the back burner. HE IS A NEO CON WAR SHILL
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19136

    Jan 01, 2012 6:13 PM GMT
    realifedad said
    As for Gingrich, I'm hoping that in spite of Large NEO CON support from the Israeli Lobby crowds money that the public will continue to put him further and further on the back burner. HE IS A NEO CON WAR SHILL



    But RLD, in your world anything short of the BAMBI is "NEO CON WAR SHILL" icon_wink.gif
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    Jan 01, 2012 6:59 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ said
    realifedad said
    As for Gingrich, I'm hoping that in spite of Large NEO CON support from the Israeli Lobby crowds money that the public will continue to put him further and further on the back burner. HE IS A NEO CON WAR SHILL



    But RLD, in your world anything short of the BAMBI is "NEO CON WAR SHILL" icon_wink.gif


    Yeah, GOD DAMN FAR RIGHT CHRISTIAN TALIBAN FUNDI NEO CONS (just like me)

    Go Gingrich

    Yeah Israel

    Go Bibi

    Yeah, bomb Iran

    There, my contribution for the day.
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    Jan 01, 2012 7:09 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ said
    realifedad said
    As for Gingrich, I'm hoping that in spite of Large NEO CON support from the Israeli Lobby crowds money that the public will continue to put him further and further on the back burner. HE IS A NEO CON WAR SHILL



    But RLD, in your world anything short of the BAMBI is "NEO CON WAR SHILL" icon_wink.gif




    Read my friend READ !!! Especially the opinions of Jewish writers on Israel's Haaretz News Site many of whom wish he'd go away and quit 'trying to help'.


    When your ready to show proof that my exposing the NEO CON's / the Israeli Lobby as those who were the primary backers and instigaters for war with Afghanistan, Iraq and now Iran, please let me know.


    PLEASE GIVE US DOCUMENTATION THAT I AM WRONG ABOUT THE REALITY OF WHO WAS BEHIND THESE WARS. I am WAITING.





    Still WAITING !!

    This is important stuff, an inoportune truth many of you repubs don't want to face because all but one of your Repub Candidates have come out in support of more war to finish up the NEO CON Israeli Lobby wish list of war with Afghanistan, Iraq and now Iran. The Repub candidates rhetoric can and has killed many a soldier and many an innocent victim in Afghanistan and Iraq.

    You repubs cannot ignore this very very dangerous issue, after all, so far its contributed about 3 trillion to Bushes War Debt when all aspects are taken into consideration. NOW YOUR REPUB CANDIDATES WANT ANOTHER WAR.

    This cannot nor should not be just glossed over for more convenient and congenial political discussions. War is not nice, not pleasant, not convenient, nor congenial, and it is on the republican candidates agenda. FACE IT


    PROVE ME WRONG.

    Lets hope more republicans wake up to what's happening in the Republican Party and that as a result Ron Paul wins in Iowa and in New Hampshire.
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    Jan 01, 2012 8:41 PM GMT
    Edit: I left out something so importatnt to RLD

    Yeah, GOD DAMN FAR RIGHT CHRISTIAN TALIBAN FUNDI TEA BAGGER NEO CONS (just like me)

    Go Gingrich

    Yeah Israel

    Go Bibi

    Yeah, bomb Iran

    Go Tea Party

    There, my contribution for the day.
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    Jan 01, 2012 9:47 PM GMT
    realifedad said
    CuriousJockAZ said
    realifedad said
    As for Gingrich, I'm hoping that in spite of Large NEO CON support from the Israeli Lobby crowds money that the public will continue to put him further and further on the back burner. HE IS A NEO CON WAR SHILL



    But RLD, in your world anything short of the BAMBI is "NEO CON WAR SHILL" icon_wink.gif




    Read my friend READ !!! Especially the opinions of Jewish writers on Israel's Haaretz News Site many of whom wish he'd go away and quit 'trying to help'.


    When your ready to show proof that my exposing the NEO CON's / the Israeli Lobby as those who were the primary backers and instigaters for war with Afghanistan, Iraq and now Iran, please let me know.


    PLEASE GIVE US DOCUMENTATION THAT I AM WRONG ABOUT THE REALITY OF WHO WAS BEHIND THESE WARS. I am WAITING.





    Still WAITING !!

    This is important stuff, an inoportune truth many of you repubs don't want to face because all but one of your Repub Candidates have come out in support of more war to finish up the NEO CON Israeli Lobby wish list of war with Afghanistan, Iraq and now Iran. The Repub candidates rhetoric can and has killed many a soldier and many an innocent victim in Afghanistan and Iraq.

    You repubs cannot ignore this very very dangerous issue, after all, so far its contributed about 3 trillion to Bushes War Debt when all aspects are taken into consideration. NOW YOUR REPUB CANDIDATES WANT ANOTHER WAR.

    This cannot nor should not be just glossed over for more convenient and congenial political discussions. War is not nice, not pleasant, not convenient, nor congenial, and it is on the republican candidates agenda. FACE IT


    PROVE ME WRONG.

    Lets hope more republicans wake up to what's happening in the Republican Party and that as a result Ron Paul wins in Iowa and in New Hampshire.








    How about an INTELIGENT RESPONSE with facts
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    Jan 01, 2012 10:01 PM GMT
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    Jan 01, 2012 10:12 PM GMT
    freedomisntfree said






    Well as they say GEEZER, if you don't have an inteligent response, "Baffle with Bullshit"
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    Jan 01, 2012 10:15 PM GMT
  • metta

    Posts: 39144

    Jan 10, 2012 9:19 PM GMT


    Bishop Gene Robinson on the New Hampshire Race

    http://www.advocate.com/Politics/Election/Gene_Robinson_on_the_NH_Race/
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    Jan 11, 2012 1:46 AM GMT
    HndsmKansan got Iowa right. Congrats! This seemed like the harder one to predict.

    This might be premature, but looks like I called New Hampshire.

    At this point, looks like Romney will be the Republican candidate.
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    Jan 11, 2012 1:50 AM GMT
    Jasonfest saidHndsmKansan got Iowa right. Congrats! This seemed like the harder one to predict.

    This might be premature, but looks like I called New Hampshire.

    At this point, looks like Romney will be the Republican candidate.


    If he does well in SC - 1st or 2nd and wins FL, yeah, I think he's got it.

    Huntsman, although 3rd, wasn't a strong enough 3rd to get through SC where he won't do well and into FL where he could do well.
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    Jan 11, 2012 1:58 AM GMT
    freedomisntfree said
    Jasonfest saidHndsmKansan got Iowa right. Congrats! This seemed like the harder one to predict.

    This might be premature, but looks like I called New Hampshire.

    At this point, looks like Romney will be the Republican candidate.


    If he does well in SC - 1st or 2nd and wins FL, yeah, I think he's got it.

    Huntsman, although 3rd, wasn't a strong enough 3rd to get through SC where he won't do well and into FL where he could do well.

    Who do you think can upset Romney in the most likely situation?

    I think Newt is the only one that could gain a foot hole in South Carolina and swing his presence toward other states at this point.

    Ron Paul does not have strong enough support in S. Carolina and is not heavily competing in Florida.
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    Jan 11, 2012 2:07 AM GMT
    Jasonfest said
    freedomisntfree said
    Jasonfest saidHndsmKansan got Iowa right. Congrats! This seemed like the harder one to predict.

    This might be premature, but looks like I called New Hampshire.

    At this point, looks like Romney will be the Republican candidate.


    If he does well in SC - 1st or 2nd and wins FL, yeah, I think he's got it.

    Huntsman, although 3rd, wasn't a strong enough 3rd to get through SC where he won't do well and into FL where he could do well.

    Who do you think can upset Romney in the most likely situation?

    I think Newt is the only one that could gain a foot hole in South Carolina and swing his presence toward other states at this point.

    Ron Paul does not have strong enough support in S. Carolina and is not heavily competing in Florida.


    Only about 1% of the total votes have been cast so if Newt were to win in both SC and FL then we might have to revisit the thought of Romney as the presumptive winner. I’m mostly fine with Newt too, although it’s a stretch sometimes to call him a conservative.