Greek PM: Greece faces “the spectre of bankruptcy and all the dire consequences that entails”

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    Jan 31, 2012 9:37 AM GMT
    Liberal delusions meet reality.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9048157/Were-on-the-brink-warns-Greece-ahead-of-summit.html

    Lucas Papademos said that unless the country’s international backers agreed to a new bail-out, Greece would be unable to pay off its loans and be forced out of the eurozone.

    EU leaders will meet in Brussels tonight amid growing concern that Greece will fail to implement the austerity measures its international backers are demanding as a condition of the latest package of financial support. Without that bail-out, Greece will be unable to repay €15 billion of loans due in March.

    Amid doubts about Greek willingness to cut spending and raise taxes, Germany has suggested that a European commissioner should take effective control of Greek fiscal policy to ensure the country accepts austerity. Evangelos Venizelos, the Greek finance minister, rejected that plan, saying it would undermine Greece’s “national identity and dignity”.
  • Suetonius

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    Jan 31, 2012 9:40 AM GMT
    Who knows - the Greek "crisis" could go on for a while. Someone said, "The Greeks continue to promise to reform, and we continue to pretend to believe the promises."
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    Jan 31, 2012 9:58 AM GMT
    Suetonius saidWho knows - the Greek "crisis" could go on for a while. Someone said, "The Greeks continue to promise to reform, and we continue to pretend to believe the promises."


    Until it doesn't. Watch for how difficult it is for them to raise new debt financing. With yields skyrocketing, it is impossible that they will be able to continue in their current state for much longer. Anyone who is familiar with government bonds would do a double take - that's a yield of 189% on their 2 year bonds - which is to say that if you believed they aren't going to go bankrupt and repay their bonds in 2 years, you would make a return of 189%/year.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB2YR:IND

    chart?h=200&w=280&range=1y&type=gp_line&
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    Mar 05, 2012 4:27 AM GMT
    The sad thing is that the best the EU and the Greeks will do with this bailout - if it even succeeds is kick the can out a few months until the next large maturity. It now however looks increasingly likely the private bond holders aren't biting and as a result there will be a default and the credit default insurance will need to be paid out.

    Unsustainable social spending being crushed by reality.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9121151/Greek-default-looms-as-voluntary-debt-deal-looks-set-to-fail.html

    European leaders are braced for the eurozone’s first ever sovereign default this week as Greece’s efforts to secure a €206bn (£172bn) “voluntary” bond swap looks increasingly unlikely.

    Authorities in Athens are ready to enforce the controversial collective action clauses, or CACs, to impose the restructuring deal on all bondholders as the number of voluntary agreements look set to fall short of the required amount.

    Credit rating agencies have warned they will declare Athens to be in default if the CACs are triggered which would be a dramatic culmination to a three-year rollercoaster ride for Athens, the eurozone and global markets.
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    Mar 05, 2012 4:38 AM GMT
    How's Canada looking?
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    Mar 05, 2012 4:39 AM GMT
    Christian73 saidHow's Canada looking?


    Much better than Greece it would appear.
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    Mar 05, 2012 4:42 AM GMT
    riddler78 said
    Christian73 saidHow's Canada looking?


    Much better than Greece it would appear.


    Great. Maybe Canada will loan them some money. That would be sweet!
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    Mar 05, 2012 4:45 AM GMT
    Christian73 said
    riddler78 said
    Christian73 saidHow's Canada looking?


    Much better than Greece it would appear.


    Great. Maybe Canada will loan them some money. That would be sweet!


    Why would it want to throw good money after bad?
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    Mar 06, 2012 5:17 PM GMT
    Of significance, if the CACs are activated, the restructuring deal will be deemed a default.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120306-708993.html

    Greece is optimistic that it will achieve a 75%-80% participation in a bond swap this week that aims to write off more than half of EUR177 billion in debt issued under Greek law, people with direct knowledge of the matter said Tuesday.

    That participation rate falls short of the 90% needed to avoid the activation of collective action clauses that will rope in unwilling investors.


    As the previous article notes, ""What happens next is unknown territory.
    "Greek banks will probably be barred from normal ECB funding and have to turn to the Emergency Liquidity Assistance [provided by the ECB] instead but for how long, we don’t know.”"

    What is known is that if a default is declared the insurance against default of these bonds will pay out and Greece will have considerably greater difficulty borrowing in the future.
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    Mar 06, 2012 7:23 PM GMT
    Greece has now resorted to threats:

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4fc58c98-67b7-11e1-b4a1-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1oMkN7Gwi

    The threat is particularly aimed at 14 per cent of investors who own Greek bonds issued under international law. The remaining 86 per cent, who own €177bn in Greek-law bonds, were also warned that Athens would use new legal provisions, called collective action clauses, to force the deal on holdouts. That would almost certainly trigger credit default swaps, a form of insurance that could prove more lucrative for some holdouts but could lead to renewed market uncertainty.

    A Greek debt restructuring would mark the first time in more than 60 years an advanced economy has defaulted on its obligations and would be a new nadir in the two-year long eurozone crisis.
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    Mar 06, 2012 7:32 PM GMT
    "Liberal delusions meet reality."


    You should have paid attention to musclmed.

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    Mar 06, 2012 8:16 PM GMT
    meninlove said "Liberal delusions meet reality."


    You should have paid attention to musclmed.



    Link? You seem to have this belief that I pay attention to all threads and read all posts. I don't. But as for the specific comment, I stand by it - if you have paid attention to what's happened in Greece and the underlying fact that they spend 250% of what they bring in, in tax revenues.
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    Mar 06, 2012 9:23 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    meninlove said "Liberal delusions meet reality."


    You should have paid attention to musclmed.



    Link? You seem to have this belief that I pay attention to all threads and read all posts. I don't. But as for the specific comment, I stand by it - if you have paid attention to what's happened in Greece and the underlying fact that they spend 250% of what they bring in, in tax revenues.



    Here's the link. I would have thought you paid attention to your own topics.

    http://www.realjock.com/gayforums/2203849/
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    Mar 06, 2012 10:00 PM GMT
    meninlove said
    riddler78 said
    meninlove said "Liberal delusions meet reality."


    You should have paid attention to musclmed.



    Link? You seem to have this belief that I pay attention to all threads and read all posts. I don't. But as for the specific comment, I stand by it - if you have paid attention to what's happened in Greece and the underlying fact that they spend 250% of what they bring in, in tax revenues.



    Here's the link. I would have thought you paid attention to your own topics.

    http://www.realjock.com/gayforums/2203849/


    I do - however to vaguely suggest that I pay attention to xyz's post or comment without reference is a bit of a stretch.

    To address musclmed's point - I'd agree that it has little to do with fascism. It does however have very much to do with liberalism, entitlements and the state.

    What is patronage if not homage/deference to the state? In Greece's case, 1/5 workers work for the Greek government. With severance pay of 45 days of severance for each year of service is ridiculous. Little wonder anyone really wanted to hire before. And yet these are the same kinds of regulations that liberals push for - more difficulty in firing, more compensation, higher minimum wages, greater unemployment benefits - all under the guise of compassion when the inverse of high unemployment has been the result.

    The dirty secret of regulation that anyone who works in the developing world will tell you is that the more regulation that exists the greater the opportunity for graft/corruption - and yet here again, it is liberals who generally advocate for greater rules and compliance as if this friction to commerce creates sustainable jobs.

    Again by way of reference:
    http://www.realjock.com/gayforums/2201191/

    But here's the thing - your view might make more sense if it weren't for the fact that this is a pattern that is repeated elsewhere in Europe - the gross overspending on entitlements and bureaucracies relative to tax revenues.
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    Mar 06, 2012 10:36 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    meninlove said "Liberal delusions meet reality."


    You should have paid attention to musclmed.



    Link? You seem to have this belief that I pay attention to all threads and read all posts. I don't.
    THAT we all knew! Hence your idiocy.
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    Mar 06, 2012 10:38 PM GMT
    TropicalMark said
    riddler78 said
    meninlove said "Liberal delusions meet reality."


    You should have paid attention to musclmed.



    Link? You seem to have this belief that I pay attention to all threads and read all posts. I don't.
    THAT we all knew! Hence your idiocy.


    So says the bigot icon_rolleyes.gif
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    Mar 06, 2012 10:50 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    TropicalMark said
    riddler78 said
    meninlove said "Liberal delusions meet reality."


    You should have paid attention to musclmed.



    Link? You seem to have this belief that I pay attention to all threads and read all posts. I don't.
    THAT we all knew! Hence your idiocy.


    So says the bigot icon_rolleyes.gif
    LMAO.. weak.. really weak!
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    Mar 08, 2012 3:54 AM GMT
    So no one really knows what will happen by Friday but it looks like it is almost certain that the Greek government will invoke clauses they put into the bonds retroactively and cause international markets to recognize a default thus triggering payouts on the credit insurance.

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/03/greece-and-euro-crisis

    CONCERN about last-minute hitches to the Greek debt restructuring took the wind out of financial markets on Tuesday. Traders will remain nervy until the deal is concluded late on March 8th. Despite the jitters, the general expectation is that enough investors will sign up for the Greek government to impose the deal on the rest by invoking the collective-action clauses (CACs) imposed by legislation passed last month. That in turn is likely to trigger a credit event as early as March 9th, which will lead to payouts on credit-default swaps. That will come as a blow to European leaders who loathe the sovereign CDS market, but they are hoping that a successful debt deal together with the second bail-out, of €130 billion ($170 billion), will dampen down the Greek fire.

    That hope may itself be swiftly extinguished. With an economy in freefall and an election looming in late April or early May, trouble could flare up again in Greece soon. And attempts by European leaders to portray the Greek “private-sector involvement” (PSI) as a special case with no implications for debt held in other shaky euro-area economies may also prove overoptimistic. High Portuguese bond yields indicate investor suspicion that Portugal, forced into a bail-out about a year after Greece, will again follow the Greeks’ lead.
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    Mar 08, 2012 6:00 AM GMT
    JPtheBITCH saidBut as usual the Ridiot has it backwards.

    Greece's problems do not stem from liberal ideology. They stem from conservative ideology. But he's too fucking dumb to understand it. Or anything else.


    The lady doth protest too much. This isn't the first time you've attempted historical revisionism but for as much as you attempt to proclaim I'm too stupid or dumb or whatever other ridiculous personal attacks of the day you're using, the facts do speak for themselves. Why do you continue to beclown yourself with your ignorance of finance?

    Dramatic overspending outside of their means and bureaucratic quagmires are why Greece is in this situation today. The only fucking stupid one here is you icon_rolleyes.gif - your senility however becomes you icon_wink.gif
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    Mar 08, 2012 9:32 AM GMT
    JPtheBITCH saidYou are The Ridiot.
    Says the moron whose knowledge of finance can charitably only be described as prehistoric and underdeveloped. icon_rolleyes.gif