USA Today Poll: Both Romney and Santorum Lead Fading Obama

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    Feb 27, 2012 3:34 PM GMT
    Interesting datapoint. Intrade which I trust more than conventional pollsters still gives a significant edge to Romney to win the nomination.

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-02-23/swing-states-health-care-obama/53260222/1

    •Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum tops Obama 50%-45% in the swing states. Nationwide, Santorum's lead narrows to 49%-46%.

    •Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney edges Obama 48%-46% in the swing states. Nationwide, they are tied at 47% each.
  • CuriousJockAZ

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    Feb 27, 2012 3:44 PM GMT
    These polls are meaningless.
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    Feb 27, 2012 3:49 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ saidThese polls are meaningless.


    I wouldn't say meaningless - for two reasons:

    1. the way they've been trending, it continues to point to a close race in November for the White House no matter who gets the nomination.

    2. for as much as the liberals and Democrats have been rubbing their hands with glee - what with all the silly pronouncements, gaffes during the Republican primaries, it appears people dislike Obama even more.
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    Feb 27, 2012 3:54 PM GMT
    Gallup poll is an outlier. It can be thrown out.
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    Feb 27, 2012 3:59 PM GMT
    catfish5 saidGallup poll is an outlier. It can be thrown out.


    Except that it is consistent with the Quinnipiac poll done a few days earlier.
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    Feb 27, 2012 4:11 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    catfish5 saidGallup poll is an outlier. It can be thrown out.


    Except that it is consistent with the Quinnipiac poll done a few days earlier.


    It doesnt match any if the major national polls. Most show Obama leading Romney and Santorum at 53% to 43/42% respectively. Be honest, you seized the outlier to support your campaign of skewed misinformation supporting the GOP.
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    Feb 27, 2012 4:19 PM GMT
    catfish5 said
    riddler78 said
    catfish5 saidGallup poll is an outlier. It can be thrown out.


    Except that it is consistent with the Quinnipiac poll done a few days earlier.


    It doesnt match any if the major national polls. Most show Obama leading Romney and Santorum at 53% to 43/42% respectively. Be honest, you seized the outlier to support your campaign of skewed misinformation supporting the GOP.


    Again, these are two of the most recent polls. I could therefore more justifiably say that you want to reject both of them "to support your campaign of skewed misinformation supporting the Democrats". For the record, I really don't like Santorum - but it would appear that many people dislike Obama even more.
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    Feb 27, 2012 4:23 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    catfish5 said
    riddler78 said
    catfish5 saidGallup poll is an outlier. It can be thrown out.


    Except that it is consistent with the Quinnipiac poll done a few days earlier.


    It doesnt match any if the major national polls. Most show Obama leading Romney and Santorum at 53% to 43/42% respectively. Be honest, you seized the outlier to support your campaign of skewed misinformation supporting the GOP.


    Again, these are two of the most recent polls. I could therefore more justifiably say that you want to reject both of them "to support your campaign of skewed misinformation supporting the Democrats".


    I reject all national polls comparing Obama to any potential GOP coming out right now. Surely we can agree that the results in MI can change everything (especially if Romney loses). We will just have to wait and see what happens Tues as the GOP race is neck/neck and both Romney/Santorum have made hideous blunders in the last few days.
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    Feb 27, 2012 5:33 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    CuriousJockAZ saidThese polls are meaningless.


    I wouldn't say meaningless - for two reasons:

    1. the way they've been trending, it continues to point to a close race in November for the White House no matter who gets the nomination.

    2. for as much as the liberals and Democrats have been rubbing their hands with glee - what with all the silly pronouncements, gaffes during the Republican primaries, it appears people dislike Obama even more.

    Agree that the polls are not meaningless, they just need to be properly interpreted. They are generally statistically sound points in time estimates. Often differences outside the margin of error result from different sample types, e.g. registered voters versus likely voters. The use in prediction obviously doesn't take into account future events or situations, such as $5 per gal gas prices. Probably also true that the current time is most favorable to Obama because of the Republican primaries. After that completes, I think with more focused attacks on Obama, his numbers will decline.
  • CuriousJockAZ

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    Feb 27, 2012 5:43 PM GMT
    catfish5 saidSurely we can agree that the results in MI can change everything (especially if Romney loses).



    I agree. If Romney loses Michigan, it won't be a campaign killer, but it will definitely be a game changer that will have him in the fight of his life come Super Tuesday. If Romney cannot pull this out, I think the likelihood that we have a brokered convention is far greater than Santorum actually getting the nomination. Also, a brokered convention could actually prove problematic to the Democrats because, in the event that someone out of left field ends up with the nomination like say a Chris Christy or Jeb Bush, it could energize the GOP in a way that perhaps a Romney was simply not able to do. I think the only real fact we can depend on is that there will still be a few twists and turns before this is all over. Fasten your seat belts!
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    Feb 27, 2012 5:52 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ said...If Romney loses Michigan, it won't be a campaign killer, but it will definitely be a game changer that will have him in the fight of his life come Super Tuesday....

    It would obviously be better for Romney if he won Michigan, but the primary is open and the Democrats and UAW have been actively encouraging Democrats to get a Republican ballot, which is legal, and vote for Santorum. If it is clear, e.g. via exit polls, that this leads to a Santorum win, then that will have a major impact on the interpretation of the results.
  • CuriousJockAZ

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    Feb 27, 2012 6:17 PM GMT
    socalfitness said
    CuriousJockAZ said...If Romney loses Michigan, it won't be a campaign killer, but it will definitely be a game changer that will have him in the fight of his life come Super Tuesday....

    It would obviously be better for Romney if he won Michigan, but the primary is open and the Democrats and UAW have been actively encouraging Democrats to get a Republican ballot, which is legal, and vote for Santorum. If it is clear, e.g. via exit polls, that this leads to a Santorum win, then that will have a major impact on the interpretation of the results.



    I'm also not convinced that a lose in Michigan may not in some strange way actually help Romney by, in essence, making him an underdog all of a sudden. Perhaps his "inevitability" status thus far has worked against him rather than for him, and a sudden underdog status kind of elevates him and humanizes him.
  • HndsmKansan

    Posts: 16311

    Feb 27, 2012 7:09 PM GMT
    Too bad they can't all lose tomorrow... perhaps there will be enough chaos that many won't know what to do!

    icon_lol.gif

    Regarding the Riddler's original post... I've never heard such a thing, every
    poll I've seen shows Obama in great shape and the Repugnicans fading.
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    Feb 27, 2012 7:46 PM GMT
    HndsmKansan saidToo bad they can't all lose tomorrow... perhaps there will be enough chaos that many won't know what to do!

    icon_lol.gif

    Regarding the Riddler's original post... I've never heard such a thing, every
    poll I've seen shows Obama in great shape and the Repugnicans fading.

    If you read my first message here, I predict what will really fade is your smirk, while the "Repuglicans", as you have become fond of calling them rise. Guess that is the view if you are a Dumbocrat. icon_lol.gif
    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Dumbocrat

    Hey guys, because even nice guy from Kansas uses his pet term for the GOP, propose we all start using the more descriptive term Dumbocrat. Many of the dictionary definitions really fit well. (Watch all the hurt feelings. Hehe.)
  • MikemikeMike

    Posts: 6932

    Feb 27, 2012 8:39 PM GMT
    Dems are sweatingicon_cool.gif
  • musclmed

    Posts: 3284

    Feb 27, 2012 8:59 PM GMT
    Unless there is some other compelling crisis it boils down to the price of gas.

    These polls are generally not useful, however what is always amusing is the weeks worth of spin they stir in the media. And the subsequent "crisis" or distraction the White House will create.

    I predict the conversation change will happen real soon. Even a slow news week will give birth to the next "non issue" to change the conversation.

    Hopefully the Republicans do not take the bait as in the silly contraception issue.

    Lets see if even one Journalist gets ONE question to the White House about this poll. I would be surprised to see it get past the filter.
  • conservativej...

    Posts: 2465

    Feb 27, 2012 10:20 PM GMT
    The numbers are likely a pretty good estimate the current "state" of November's electiion.

    Tomorrow however is going to be very interesting.
  • HndsmKansan

    Posts: 16311

    Feb 27, 2012 11:21 PM GMT
    socalfitness said
    HndsmKansan saidToo bad they can't all lose tomorrow... perhaps there will be enough chaos that many won't know what to do!

    icon_lol.gif

    Regarding the Riddler's original post... I've never heard such a thing, every
    poll I've seen shows Obama in great shape and the Repugnicans fading.

    If you read my first message here, I predict what will really fade is your smirk, while the "Repuglicans", as you have become fond of calling them rise. Guess that is the view if you are a Dumbocrat. icon_lol.gif
    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Dumbocrat

    Hey guys, because even nice guy from Kansas uses his pet term for the GOP, propose we all start using the more descriptive term Dumbocrat. Many of the dictionary definitions really fit well. (Watch all the hurt feelings. Hehe.)


    Cute John... perhaps we shouldn't use either... and I don't have a "smirk" thats reserved for republicans.... I just have confidence.
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    Feb 27, 2012 11:53 PM GMT
    HndsmKansan said
    socalfitness said
    HndsmKansan saidToo bad they can't all lose tomorrow... perhaps there will be enough chaos that many won't know what to do!

    icon_lol.gif

    Regarding the Riddler's original post... I've never heard such a thing, every
    poll I've seen shows Obama in great shape and the Repugnicans fading.

    If you read my first message here, I predict what will really fade is your smirk, while the "Repuglicans", as you have become fond of calling them rise. Guess that is the view if you are a Dumbocrat. icon_lol.gif
    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Dumbocrat

    Hey guys, because even nice guy from Kansas uses his pet term for the GOP, propose we all start using the more descriptive term Dumbocrat. Many of the dictionary definitions really fit well. (Watch all the hurt feelings. Hehe.)


    Cute John... perhaps we shouldn't use either... and I don't have a "smirk" thats reserved for republicans.... I just have confidence.

    Was hoping you'd want to persist with the term because the definitions for Dumbocrat are so endearing.