CNN Jeffrey Toobin: [based on comments today] health care reform law could be in "grave danger."

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    Mar 27, 2012 6:12 PM GMT


    http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/27/justice/scotus-health-care/index.html?hpt=hp_c1

    Excerpts:

    The fate of the individual mandate -- requiring most Americans to purchase health insurance by 2014 or face a financial penalty -- may be in jeopardy, and perhaps with it the entire law's other 450 or so sections, based on tough questions of the government by the court's conservative majority.

    Jeffrey Toobin, CNN's senior legal analyst, said questions asked at oral arguments often show how justices are thinking, and based on what he heard Tuesday, the health care reform law could be in "grave danger."
    ...
    To Toobin, the court's four liberal justices -- Ginsburg, Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor and Stephen Breyer -- were clearly supportive of the law's constitutionality, while conservative justices Samuel Alito and Antonin Scalia appeared certain to rule against the law.

    With Justice Clarence Thomas also considered certain to vote on the conservative side, the issue would be decided by the remaining votes of Kennedy and Roberts, Toobin said.
    ...
    However, Justice Anthony Kennedy said that the federal government "is telling an individual he has the obligation he must act" and purchase insurance.

    "That threatens to change the relationship between the government and the individual in a profound way," Kennedy said.

    If Congress could regulate health care in the name of commerce, added Chief Justice John Roberts, "all bets are off" on a range of areas subject to federal oversight.
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    Mar 27, 2012 7:33 PM GMT
    I don't see how it will be able to stand!
  • CuriousJockAZ

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    Mar 27, 2012 7:38 PM GMT
    This will be H-U-G-E if this goes down
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    Mar 27, 2012 7:40 PM GMT


    "The fate of the individual mandate -- requiring most Americans to purchase health insurance by 2014 or face a financial penalty -- may be in jeopardy, and perhaps with it the entire law's other 450 or so sections, based on tough questions of the government by the court's conservative majority."

    It seems to me getting fined would pump money back into medicare/medicaid, as that is what people without healthcare insurance would be using.

    However, let's play it your way.

    So if Americans don't buy healthcare insurance they will be able to get it for free via medicaid/medicare et al.

    Of course if the general social safety net is yanked then they will die or buy healthcare insurance.

    That sounds far more civilized, doesn't it?

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    Mar 27, 2012 7:43 PM GMT
    Given the deep unpopularity of the law, I think it's a lose-lose situation for the Administration. If any part is declared unconstitutional, it will be a significant blow to Obama's prestige, whatever bit he has left, that is. It it is declared constitutional, it will fire up the electorate even more to defeat Obama to get rid of it.