jock_1 saidThe next global war will happen in the middle east probably over oil or the fact Iran wants to nuke Isreal. If that happens God help us all !! I hope i am dead because i dont want to live through a nuclear war.
I agree that it will probably start in the middle east, sadly probably with something really horrific happening in Israel that may cause them to retaliate in such a way that it sparks WW3. The U.S. will have no choice but to become involved. It's a really scary thought, and I truly believe this is something that could happen in our life time. Tensions have become so severe in various parts of the world, and the world economy so fragile, that something is bound to snap --- probably sooner rather than later.
Nah - being an optimist, I hope you're wrong. First, the history: violence and wars have been decreasing drastically over time. What is lacking is context - http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/pinker07/pinker07_index.html
In sixteenth-century Paris, a popular form of entertainment was cat-burning, in which a cat was hoisted in a sling on a stage and slowly lowered into a fire. According to historian Norman Davies, "[T]he spectators, including kings and queens, shrieked with laughter as the animals, howling with pain, were singed, roasted, and finally carbonized." Today, such sadism would be unthinkable in most of the world. This change in sensibilities is just one example of perhaps the most important and most underappreciated trend in the human saga: Violence has been in decline over long stretches of history, and today we are probably living in the most peaceful moment of our species' time on earth.
We are increasingly integrated with respect to trade which increases dependence. It is not by accident that there hadn't been two countries with a Mcdonald's that had ever gone to war until the Balkans.
I think history will also show that the peak of our dependence of oil in despotic countries has since passed. Technology improvements in extraction have meant the rise in production within the US and Canada, but also the extraction of alternatives like natural gas (look to see the rise of LNG/CNG fueled logistics in the coming years) with natural gas a fraction of the cost of oil. But I think we will find that natural gas is just a bridge technology to improvements in solar and nuclear - where we are already seeing massive transformative technologies only beginning to be implemented.
It is stunning in a sense that there exists solar that can be sustainable without subsidies now and costs seem to continue to fall following an innovation curve not dissimilar to Moore's law.
Despite my optimism, it would be unwise not to prepare for the worst... "Si vis pacem, para bellum"