The economy is not recovering, but instead slowly slipping away

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    Jun 01, 2012 10:55 PM GMT
    http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/06/01/economy-is-not-recovering-but-instead-slowly-slipping-away/

    By Douglas E. Schoen

    President Obama’s only claim to reelection is that he and his team steadied America during its time of economic uncertainty and are, albeit slowly, growing the economy. Friday’s anemic jobs numbers show that in fact the economy is not recovering, but rather, unfortunately slipping away, and with the state of the race as it is, the election possibly, irrevocably, too.

    In February of 2012, we added 227,000 new jobs, revised upward from 210,000. Things looked good for the economy and Obama’s reelection prospects.

    But since then things have gone downhill.

    Friday we discovered that in March we created 143,000 new jobs, 10,000 less than we originally thought. Not robust growth, but certainly no cause for panic. In April, however, we added just 77,000 new jobs, a figure that has been revised downward from 115,000.

    In May we netted just 69,000 jobs, revised downward from a projected 150,000. Further bad news, the unemployment rate has climbed up to 8.2%. I think both my fellow Americans, and especially the Obama administration, have cause to worry.

    Today’s lackluster jobs figures are symptomatic of a weak economy, and that’s disquieting for all Americans. But with several new polls being released recently which show the president virtually tied with Romney in three crucial swing states (Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada), this is especially troubling for the Obama reelection team.

    An obvious observation: a best-fit line showing the amount of jobs created would be going downward, steeply. Another observation: if one were to draw a best-fit line through Obama’s poll numbers in the three states mentioned above, it too would be going downward. Romney’s go up.

    The three are most definitely intertwined.

    The president and his team have been campaigning as our economic saviors, throwing around counterfactuals and speculations about how bad things could have been. The problem with that, highlighted by the recent economic data, is that things are already pretty bad.

    You cannot campaign that you are saving the economy if the unemployment rate goes up, and, when it goes down, only offer a weak explanation that it's because Americans are losing hope and dropping out of the labor force.

    The latest poll numbers signal a shift in the race: the American people see that Obama and his team are no longer presiding over a recovery, and are in fact incapable of doing so. This spells disaster for the president.

    The economy is weak. Americans no longer see him as the man capable of fixing this. All this is reflected in the polls. If Romney can take advantage of this shifting momentum, he may begin to dramatically pull ahead in the race for the White House.


    Douglas E. Schoen is a political strategist, Fox News contributor, author of the new book, “Hopelessly Divided: The New Crisis in American Politics and What it Means for 2012 and Beyond” (Rowman and Littlefield). Follow Doug on Twitter @DouglasESchoen.
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    Jun 01, 2012 11:07 PM GMT
    Well we only have a hostile uncompromising GOP lead congress to blame (and less than favorable european storm clouds)
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    Jun 02, 2012 12:08 AM GMT
    http://go.bloomberg.com/political-economy/2012-06-01/jobs-report-bad-news-for-obama/

    Jobs Report: Bad News for Obama

    Excerpts:

    It makes it difficult for President Barack Obama, campaigning for re-election, to press his case that things are getting better. It makes it easier for Mitt Romney, the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee, to argue that Obama isn’t up to the job.

    (Update: ”Every recession ends and there’s a recovery,” Romney told supporters at a campaign fundraiser last night at the Beverly Hills Hotel. “We’ve never had a recession that went on forever. This one just happens to have gone on longer than any before, and the recovery is more tepid than any others before, for he which he takes the blame in my view.”

    This morning, after the jobs report release, Romney issued a statement:

    “Today’s weak jobs report is devastating news for American workers and American families,” he said in part. ”Slowing GDP growth, plunging consumer confidence and now another dismal jobs report all stand as a harsh indictment of the president’s handling of the economy.’
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    Jun 02, 2012 12:21 AM GMT
    It looks like Keynes was right—cutting government in a recession leads to... a bigger recession.

    Time to oust the do nothing congress, I think.
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    Jun 02, 2012 12:36 AM GMT
    TigerTim saidIt looks like Keynes was right—cutting government in a recession leads to... a bigger recession.

    Time to oust the do nothing congress, I think.


    Yup.
  • jock_1

    Posts: 1491

    Jun 02, 2012 1:25 AM GMT
    TigerTim saidIt looks like Keynes was right—cutting government in a recession leads to... a bigger recession.

    Time to oust the do nothing congress, I think.


    Yup. Time for the republicans to gain more seats. Retiring, some say half dead Senator Kohl (D) is a solid republican victory in November. Book it !!
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    Jun 02, 2012 1:31 AM GMT
    jock_1 said
    TigerTim saidIt looks like Keynes was right—cutting government in a recession leads to... a bigger recession.

    Time to oust the do nothing congress, I think.


    Tup. Time for the republicans to gain more seats. Retiring, some say half dead Senator Kohl (D) is a solid republican victory in November. Book it !!


    Did I ever tell you about my "no lube" policy for Republicans? My experience is that they like getting fucked to hurt.
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    Jun 02, 2012 1:49 AM GMT
    jock_1 said
    TigerTim saidIt looks like Keynes was right—cutting government in a recession leads to... a bigger recession.

    Time to oust the do nothing congress, I think.


    Tup. Time for the republicans to gain more seats. Retiring, some say half dead Senator Kohl (D) is a solid republican victory in November. Book it !!


    A direct result of the failure of stimulus. What's astounding is that there are still those who believe that somehow the US is better off to have spent over a trillion dollars for what? Here's the CBO - it's nothing more than short term gain for long term pain:

    SESSIONS: And in the next 10 years, since you’re carrying that debt and paying interest on it and the stimulus value is long since gone, it would be a continual negative of some effect?

    ELMENDORF: Yes, it would represent a drag on the level of GDP beyond that, if no other actions were taken.


    It's astounding that there remain some who believe that we need more unsustainable spending - and what's their solution to contain runaway deficits? Taxes - even though it's a spending problem and not a tax problem.

    Screen%20Shot%202011-12-19%20at%207.10.5

    Meanwhile the rich pay nearly all of federal income taxes:

    Screen%20Shot%202011-12-19%20at%207.14.3
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    Jun 02, 2012 2:00 AM GMT
    riddler78 said...A direct result of the failure of stimulus. What's astounding is that there are still those who believe that somehow the US is better off to have spent over a trillion dollars for what? ...

    Incredible how a combination of ideology, ignorance, and stupidity lead some to want to double down on clearly failed policies. There were cost per job calculations from the stimulus at approx. $250K per job. Democrats complained that these numbers were misleading. Perhaps, but on the low side.

    http://www.unitedliberty.org/articles/10134-cbo-report-shows-high-cost-per-stimulus-job
    On that basis CBO estimates that ARRA’s policies had the following effects in the first quarter of calendar year 2012 compared with what would have occurred otherwise:

    – They raised real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by between 0.1 percent and 1.0 percent,

    – They lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.1 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points,

    – They increased the number of people employed by between 0.2 million and 1.5 million,

    – They increased the number of full-time-equivalent jobs by 0.3 million to 1.9 million. (Increases in FTE jobs include shifts from part-time to full-time work or overtime and are thus generally larger than increases in the number of employed workers.)

    Pethokoukis did the math and found that the “current cost-per-job created is somewhere between $4.1 million and $540,000” (the former being the worst number, the latter being the best case for the White House). Pethokoukis also points to the other economic impacts of the stimulus bill from the CBO report, which shows:

    In contrast to its positive near-term macroeconomic effects, ARRA will reduce output slightly in the long run, CBO estimates—by between zero and 0.2 percent after 2016. But CBO expects that the legislation will have no long-term effects on employment because the U.S. economy will have a high rate of use of its labor resources in the long run. ARRA’s long-run impact on the economy will stem primarily from the resulting increase in government debt.
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    Jun 02, 2012 2:18 AM GMT
    And it gets worse -

    http://news.investors.com/article/613346/201206010854/working-age-employment-rates-near-historic-lows.htm

    WEBempl060412_345_01.gif.cms

    The unemployment rate rose slightly to 8.2% in May, holding above 8% for the 40th straight month, the Labor Department reported Friday. But actual employment rates of core working age Americans suggests the true jobs situation is even worse.

    From mid-1987 until the Great Recession, the employment-to-population ratio of 25-54-year-olds usually ranged from 78.5% to 80%. It never fell below 78.2% even during the 1990-1991 and 2001 slumps.

    But now, nearly three years after the recession ended in June 2009, that ratio stands at just 75.7%.

    "Right now this is probably a better measure than the unemployment rate," said James Sherk, senior policy analyst in labor economics at the conservative Heritage Foundation. "There are so many people dropping out of the job market and the unemployment rate, bad as it is, doesn't pick that up. The ratio gives a better idea of employment opportunities."
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    Jun 02, 2012 2:24 AM GMT
    The economy is not recovering, but instead slowly slipping away
    The economy is not recovering, but instead slowly slipping away
    The economy is not recovering, but instead slowly slipping away


    THE END IS NEAR.
    EMBRACE THE DOOM.
    WE ARE SCREWED.

    SoCal, You are ever the source of good cheer.

    How many of your friends are on antidepressants?
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    Jun 02, 2012 2:28 AM GMT
    The sad thing is that it doesn't have to be this way - what some people don't get is that while there are those like those in the Occupy protests who have been in perpetual protest since the 60s, there are others like tea partiers who have been working at proactive solutions. From throwing out RINOs to electing true small government conservatives. Here's one proactive solution:
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303674004577434774238817962.html?mod=hp_opinion

    America's economic future is increasingly uncertain. In my view, unpredictable economic policy—massive fiscal "stimulus" and ballooning debt, the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing with multiyear near-zero interest rates, and regulatory uncertainty due to ObamaCare and the Dodd-Frank financial reforms—is the main cause of persistent high unemployment and our feeble recovery from the recession.

    A reform strategy built on more predictable, rules-based fiscal, monetary and regulatory policies will help restore economic prosperity. That will be a daunting task, of course, but as they undertake the necessary changes, reformers should pay close attention to what the great economist and philosopher Friedrich A. Hayek wrote in the middle years of the last century.

    Hayek argued that the case for rules-based policy goes beyond economics and should appeal to all those concerned about assaults on freedom. He wrote in his classic 1944 book, "The Road to Serfdom," that "nothing distinguishes more clearly conditions in a free country from those in a country under arbitrary government than the observance in the former of the great principles known as the Rule of Law."

    Hayek added, "Stripped of all technicalities, this means that government in all its actions is bound by rules fixed and announced beforehand—rules which make it possible to foresee with fair certainty how the authority will use its coercive powers in given circumstances and to plan one's individual affairs on the basis of this knowledge."

    Rules-based policies make the economy work better by providing a predictable policy framework within which consumers and businesses make decisions. But they also protect freedom, a concept Hayek developed in his 1960 book, "The Constitution of Liberty."
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    Jun 02, 2012 3:42 AM GMT
    Another damning reminder of the what they promised with respect to stimulus and what actually happened:

    obama-unemployment.jpg
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    Jun 02, 2012 4:07 AM GMT
    riddler78 said
    jock_1 said
    TigerTim saidIt looks like Keynes was right—cutting government in a recession leads to... a bigger recession.

    Time to oust the do nothing congress, I think.


    Tup. Time for the republicans to gain more seats. Retiring, some say half dead Senator Kohl (D) is a solid republican victory in November. Book it !!


    A direct result of the failure of stimulus. What's astounding is that there are still those who believe that somehow the US is better off to have spent over a trillion dollars for what? Here's the CBO - it's nothing more than short term gain for long term pain:

    SESSIONS: And in the next 10 years, since you’re carrying that debt and paying interest on it and the stimulus value is long since gone, it would be a continual negative of some effect?

    ELMENDORF: Yes, it would represent a drag on the level of GDP beyond that, if no other actions were taken.


    It's astounding that there remain some who believe that we need more unsustainable spending - and what's their solution to contain runaway deficits? Taxes - even though it's a spending problem and not a tax problem.


    What do you mean "we", kemosabe? icon_rolleyes.gif

    You're a Canadian socialist who does business with a state-run communist economy. There is not "we." icon_rolleyes.gif
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    Jun 02, 2012 2:34 PM GMT

    Meanwhile in that failed wasteland of a social democracy up North whose policies are further left ...

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/06/01/canada-gdp-economy.html
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    Jun 02, 2012 3:18 PM GMT
    Addendums:

    http://www.realjock.com/gayforums/2408806/
    http://business.financialpost.com/2011/09/20/canada-tops-america-in-economic-freedom/
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/30/us-corporate-tax-rate_n_1392310.html
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    Jun 02, 2012 6:02 PM GMT
    riddler78 says

    "The sad thing is that it doesn't have to be this way - ........

    there are others like tea partiers who have been working at proactive solutions"

    THE TEA PARTIERS????

    So THIS is the alternative leadership you have in mind for our rescue?
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    Jun 02, 2012 6:50 PM GMT
    southbeach1500 said
    riddler78 saidAnother damning reminder of the what they promised with respect to stimulus and what actually happened:

    obama-unemployment.jpg



    Obama%2Bshh%2B1.jpg


    Quite.
  • musclmed

    Posts: 3284

    Jun 02, 2012 6:51 PM GMT
    Christian73 said
    TigerTim saidIt looks like Keynes was right—cutting government in a recession leads to... a bigger recession.

    Time to oust the do nothing congress, I think.


    Yup.


    More like propose tax hikes and class warfare. The job-makers site on there money.


    Obama at this point has 3 + years of division politics on his record.

    He needlessly injects uncertainty in a market that was recovering.

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    Jun 02, 2012 7:01 PM GMT
    musclmed said
    Christian73 said
    TigerTim saidIt looks like Keynes was right—cutting government in a recession leads to... a bigger recession.

    Time to oust the do nothing congress, I think.


    Yup.


    More like propose tax hikes and class warfare. The job-makers site on there money.


    Obama at this point has 3 + years of division politics on his record.

    He needlessly injects uncertainty in a market that was recovering.



    Tax increases are necessary across the board as is stopping the tax dodging of multinationals and the uber-wealthy.

    And the class warfare was started by the 1% and has been going on for more than 30 years. That the battle has finally been joined by the 99% is indicative that the lies you're pushing don't work anymore.

    Finally, Obama was not divisive. Rather it was Mitch McConnell and the Republicans who decided that beating Obama was more important that helping the American people.
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    Jun 02, 2012 7:03 PM GMT
    riddler78 saidAddendums:

    http://www.realjock.com/gayforums/2408806/


    OK, that one cracks me up.
  • musclmed

    Posts: 3284

    Jun 02, 2012 7:08 PM GMT
    Christian73 said
    musclmed said
    Christian73 said
    TigerTim saidIt looks like Keynes was right—cutting government in a recession leads to... a bigger recession.

    Time to oust the do nothing congress, I think.


    Yup.


    More like propose tax hikes and class warfare. The job-makers site on there money.


    Obama at this point has 3 + years of division politics on his record.

    He needlessly injects uncertainty in a market that was recovering.



    Tax increases are necessary across the board as is stopping the tax dodging of multinationals and the uber-wealthy.

    And the class warfare was started by the 1% and has been going on for more than 30 years. That the battle has finally been joined by the 99% is indicative that the lies you're pushing don't work anymore.

    Finally, Obama was not divisive. Rather it was Mitch McConnell and the Republicans who decided that beating Obama was more important that helping the American people.


    well November's election will show who is right and wrong about it.
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    Jun 02, 2012 8:16 PM GMT
    Lets try to frame this as an American problem. I recall so well in spring 1983 seeing the headline one month that XXX jobs were created (a very good month) as the US economy was struggling to emerge from the early 80s recession. Reagan was President (I voted for John Anderson) but I didnt care - WE had a very good month.
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    Jun 02, 2012 8:34 PM GMT
    southbeach1500 said
    musclmed said
    Christian73 said
    TigerTim saidIt looks like Keynes was right—cutting government in a recession leads to... a bigger recession.

    Time to oust the do nothing congress, I think.


    Yup.


    More like propose tax hikes and class warfare. The job-makers site on there money.


    Obama at this point has 3 + years of division politics on his record.

    He needlessly injects uncertainty in a market that was recovering.



    He also has kept government spending at "post stimulus" levels his entire presidency. Remember the "stimulus" was supposed to only be a "one time increase" in Federal spending.

    But the Democrats craftily have kept it at that elevated level by refusing to pass a budget during the entire time Obama has been in the White House.



    Republicans are going to raise taxes!

    See it all here: http://www.realjock.com/gayforums/2416164
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    Jun 02, 2012 10:08 PM GMT
    musclmed said
    Christian73 said
    musclmed said
    Christian73 said
    TigerTim saidIt looks like Keynes was right—cutting government in a recession leads to... a bigger recession.

    Time to oust the do nothing congress, I think.


    Yup.


    More like propose tax hikes and class warfare. The job-makers site on there money.


    Obama at this point has 3 + years of division politics on his record.

    He needlessly injects uncertainty in a market that was recovering.



    Tax increases are necessary across the board as is stopping the tax dodging of multinationals and the uber-wealthy.

    And the class warfare was started by the 1% and has been going on for more than 30 years. That the battle has finally been joined by the 99% is indicative that the lies you're pushing don't work anymore.

    Finally, Obama was not divisive. Rather it was Mitch McConnell and the Republicans who decided that beating Obama was more important that helping the American people.


    well November's election will show who is right and wrong about it.


    Don't mind some of the extreme leftists here - in their rage at watching power slip away, they're becoming increasingly delusional. icon_wink.gif