The Unprecedented Upsurge of Oil Production Capacity and What it Means for the World

  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jun 26, 2012 9:37 PM GMT
    A pretty remarkable report of the upsurge in oil production capacity as a result of new drilling technologies being developed primarily in the US that is reshaping global geopolitics.

    /belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf

    Contrary to what most people believe, oil supply capacity is growing worldwide at such an unprecedented level that it might outpace consumption. This could lead to a glut of overproduction and a steep dip in oil prices.

    The most surprising factor of the global picture, however, is the explosion of the U.S. oil output.Thanks to the technological revolution brought about by the combined use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, the U.S. is now exploiting its huge and virtually untouched shale and tight oil fields, whose production – although still in its infancy – is already skyrocketing in North Dakota and Texas.

    The natural endowment of the initial American shale play, Bakken/Three Forks (a tight oil formation) in North Dakota and Montana, could become a big Persian Gulf producing country within the United States. But the country has more than twenty big shale oil formations, especially the Eagle Ford Shale, where the recent boom is revealing a hydrocarbon endowment comparable to that of the Bakken Shale. Most of U.S. shale and tight oil are profitable at a price of oil (WTI) ranging from $50 to $65 per barrel, thus making them sufficiently resilient to a significant downturn of oil prices.

    The combined additional, unrestricted liquid production from the aggregate shale/tight oil formations examined in this paper could reach 6.6 mbd by 2020, in addition to another 1 mbd of new conventional production. However, there remain obstacles that could significantly reduce the U.S. shale output: among them, the inadequate U.S. oil transportation system, the country’s refining structure, the amount of associated natural gas produced with shale oil, and environmental doubts about hydraulic fracturing, one of the key technologies for extracting oil from shale. After considering risk factors and the depletion of currently producing oilfields, the U.S. could see its production capacity increase by 3.5 mbd. Thus, the U.S. could produce 11.6 mbd of crude oil and NGLs by 2020, making the country the second largest oil producer in the world after Saudi Arabia. Adding biofuels to this figure, the overall U.S. liquid capacity could exceed 13 mbd, representing about 65 percent of its current consumption.
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    Jun 26, 2012 9:41 PM GMT
    riddler78 saidA pretty remarkable report of something that is reshaping global geopolitics.

    /belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf

    Contrary to what most people believe, oil supply capacity is growing worldwide at such an unprecedented level that it might outpace consumption. This could lead to a glut of overproduction and a steep dip in oil prices.

    The most surprising factor of the global picture, however, is the explosion of the U.S. oil output.Thanks to the technological revolution brought about by the combined use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, the U.S. is now exploiting its huge and virtually untouched shale and tight oil fields, whose production – although still in its infancy – is already skyrocketing in North Dakota and Texas.

    The natural endowment of the initial American shale play, Bakken/Three Forks (a tight oil formation) in North Dakota and Montana, could become a big Persian Gulf producing country within the United States. But the country has more than twenty big shale oil formations, especially the Eagle Ford Shale, where the recent boom is revealing a hydrocarbon endowment comparable to that of the Bakken Shale. Most of U.S. shale and tight oil are profitable at a price of oil (WTI) ranging from $50 to $65 per barrel, thus making them sufficiently resilient to a significant downturn of oil prices.

    The combined additional, unrestricted liquid production from the aggregate shale/tight oil formations examined in this paper could reach 6.6 mbd by 2020, in addition to another 1 mbd of new conventional production. However, there remain obstacles that could significantly reduce the U.S. shale output: among them, the inadequate U.S. oil transportation system, the country’s refining structure, the amount of associated natural gas produced with shale oil, and environmental doubts about hydraulic fracturing, one of the key technologies for extracting oil from shale. After considering risk factors and the depletion of currently producing oilfields, the U.S. could see its production capacity increase by 3.5 mbd. Thus, the U.S. could produce 11.6 mbd of crude oil and NGLs by 2020, making the country the second largest oil producer in the world after Saudi Arabia. Adding biofuels to this figure, the overall U.S. liquid capacity could exceed 13 mbd, representing about 65 percent of its current consumption.
    Wrong forum..

    Politics forum is ---------> that way.icon_rolleyes.gificon_rolleyes.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jun 27, 2012 1:07 AM GMT
    Oil is good.
    Fracking is evil. Very evil
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jun 27, 2012 1:52 AM GMT
    mmmmmm cheaper oil
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jun 27, 2012 2:44 AM GMT
    And it's happening under OBAMA. Now tell Mister Obama thanks Riddler! icon_razz.gif
  • jim_sf

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    Jun 27, 2012 2:48 AM GMT
    So supply is up, yet prices are still high? Hmm.
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    Jun 27, 2012 2:50 AM GMT
    Scruffypup saidAnd it's happening under OBAMA. Now tell Mister Obama thanks Riddler! icon_razz.gif


    *in spite of...

    have you seen what he's been doing when it comes to permitting? The technology gained momentum under Bush - so by the same logic a number of people use to blame everything on Bush... icon_wink.gif

    And to the above commenter - yes, prices are still high though oil has been dropping. The big difference though is still with natural gas.
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    Jun 27, 2012 3:33 AM GMT
    riddler78 said
    Scruffypup saidAnd it's happening under OBAMA. Now tell Mister Obama thanks Riddler! icon_razz.gif


    *in spite of...

    have you seen what he's been doing when it comes to permitting? The technology gained momentum under Bush - so by the same logic a number of people use to blame everything on Bush... icon_wink.gif

    And to the above commenter - yes, prices are still high though oil has been dropping. The big difference though is still with natural gas.



    You stupid jackass....if you had ANY sense you'd be thanking Obama for making an effort to protect our environment. But you're naive enough to think it's indestructible. I lived through the BP oil spill and I know plenty of people who are still having severe health problems as a result. Do you have any idea just how close we came to completely destroying the Gulf? And you actually think these bastards need to given even more permits? icon_evil.gif
  • TheBizMan

    Posts: 4091

    Jun 27, 2012 3:49 AM GMT
    Scruffypup said
    riddler78 said
    Scruffypup saidAnd it's happening under OBAMA. Now tell Mister Obama thanks Riddler! icon_razz.gif


    *in spite of...

    have you seen what he's been doing when it comes to permitting? The technology gained momentum under Bush - so by the same logic a number of people use to blame everything on Bush... icon_wink.gif

    And to the above commenter - yes, prices are still high though oil has been dropping. The big difference though is still with natural gas.



    You stupid jackass....if you had ANY sense you'd be thanking Obama for making an effort to protect our environment. But you're naive enough to think it's indestructible. I lived through the BP oil spill and I know plenty of people who are still having severe health problems as a result. Do you have any idea just how close we came to completely destroying the Gulf? And you actually think these bastards need to given even more permits? icon_evil.gif

    It doesn't matter when you only care about personal well being and monetary gain.

    Republicans: As long as my wallet is fat, everything is A-ok.
  • ScottyM

    Posts: 17

    Jun 27, 2012 6:37 AM GMT
    The problem is that Oil and Natural Gas will eventually run dry.

    That is a FACT.
    The resources are finite.

    The current oil commercial on TV that says something like "we've found discoveries of oil right here that will last for 100 years..." makes me laugh. I always think... and what happens in year 101?

    We have taken money, time, and energy that COULD be used to develop renewable energy here in the states and spent it on an indoor ski resort IN THE FUCKING DESERT, the world's largest skyscraper IN DUBAI, a "floating" park on top of two skyscrapers IN MALYASIA - all while we're struggling to pay our over-inflated mortgages on two-bedroom bungalows in the US suburbs.

    Renewable, sustainable, energy could create jobs here in the US if we funded it like we fund the profits of Big Oil.

    But we don't because we are only concerned about NOW and not about 101 years from now.

    It's dangerous to have a critical industry so ripe in profits that it is able to use its profits to thwart the development of competitive processes, especially when those processes are better for the greater good of mankind.

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    Jun 27, 2012 7:08 AM GMT
    good thing we don't have a crushing climate change problem or anything!
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    Jun 27, 2012 7:31 AM GMT
    And there were tons of whales...until humans nearly hunted them extinct for their whale oil. The only difference is, whales can replenish their population, oil is finite...it takes millions of years to form. If oil was just another source of energy, then there wouldn't be a problem. But fossil fuels are causing climate change. The people of Tuvalu, for example, have been dealing with the effects of climate change for years now. The sea is rising there, and recently it has gotten to the point of causing a water crisis, because the undrinkable sea water is contaminating sources of fresh water on the island.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-15147043
  • jim_sf

    Posts: 2094

    Jun 27, 2012 3:53 PM GMT
    riddler78 saidAnd to the above commenter - yes, prices are still high though oil has been dropping. The big difference though is still with natural gas.


    So, if crude oil production increases neither alleviate unemployment nor reduce fuel prices for consumers, then why is the Keystone pipeline such a rallying cry for the Republican Party?
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    Jun 27, 2012 4:54 PM GMT
    riddler78 said.The most surprising factor of the global picture, however, is the explosion of the U.S. oil output.Thanks to the technological revolution brought about by the combined use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, the U.S. is now exploiting its huge and virtually untouched shale and tight oil fields, whose production – although still in its infancy – is already skyrocketing in North Dakota and Texas.


    We really need to be working on solar and wind energy.

    I wonder what a windmill in a hurricane would produce? I bet those electrons would come shooting out of there like a quark particle outta CERN.
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    Jun 27, 2012 5:03 PM GMT
    homastj saidgood thing we don't have a crushing climate change problem or anything!
    I was wondering if anyone would point that out.

    More oil = cheaper prices = increased consumption = increased emissions = faster climate change.
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    Jun 27, 2012 5:14 PM GMT
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    Jun 27, 2012 5:38 PM GMT
    Let's see... there has been no new refining capacity in years. So, the price of gas won't really go down that much. It will still be working with supply and demand economics. I heard a while back that the Saudis are pumping 55% water from their wells. So Russia and the US may be the main exporters of oil. The US hasn't been an exporter of oil since 1974. They would really have to start conserving. That will be a tough act.... unless a Ranger becomes the new Hummer. They are worried about fracting causing more and severe earthquakes. Not sure about that unless it's on a fault line. I do know that all these methods of oil extraction are going to cost more.... it was $30/barrel for easy oil.... and up to $90 for oilsands and deep sea. So, we may have a shift away from that expensive oil to cheaper. About the pollution aspect and climate change... this isn't good. Other than that we'll see how it goes.

    I'd be investing in Natural Gas right now.... it's already at it's low... and if the US is supplying it to India.... it could skyrocket.
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    Jun 27, 2012 5:48 PM GMT
    jim_stl saidSo supply is up, yet prices are still high? Hmm.



    i just paid $2.87/gal to fill up my car last night
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    Jun 27, 2012 11:00 PM GMT
    O yes, dig further and we dig our own graves...
  • jim_sf

    Posts: 2094

    Jun 27, 2012 11:14 PM GMT
    RoadsterRacer87 said
    jim_stl saidSo supply is up, yet prices are still high? Hmm.



    i just paid $2.87/gal to fill up my car last night


    That's almost $1.50/gal higher than what it was just ten years ago.
    http://articles.latimes.com/2002/dec/23/business/fi-gas23
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    Jun 27, 2012 11:21 PM GMT
    GreenHopper saidO yes, dig further and we dig our own graves...
    Meh, we're gonna die anyway. Might as well die in a nice new SUV that's twice the size of our current SUV's but get get twice the fuel economy...so you can drive 10x as far. icon_twisted.gif
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    Jun 27, 2012 11:21 PM GMT
    NakedBudd saidOil is good.
    Fracking is evil. Very evil


    hahahahah....bahahaha

    watch another documentary
  • ScottyM

    Posts: 17

    Jun 29, 2012 4:04 AM GMT
    track_boi said
    NakedBudd saidOil is good.
    Fracking is evil. Very evil


    hahahahah....bahahaha

    watch another documentary


    Just look at the purple squirrel!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/08/purple-squirrel-jersey-shore-pennsylvania-released_n_1263767.html

    BROMIDE, the chemical believed to have caused the little guy to turn purple is a by-product of the fracking process. It's believed to be seeping into the water tables around PA fracking sites...


    Sigh
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    Jun 29, 2012 4:34 AM GMT
    ScottyM saidThe problem is that Oil and Natural Gas will eventually run dry. That is a FACT.
    The resources are finite.


    Oh stop clouding the topic with those silly facts. Don't you know Conservatives are allergic to facts?
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    Jun 29, 2012 1:13 PM GMT
    hey riddler! "You stupid jackass".. you have been spoken to.. answer the questions posed to you!

    icon_eek.gif