Brand new poll out today shows Romney ahead by 3. Larger sample size and Likely Voters. ALSO ABC/Wash Post Poll very bad for Obama

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    Jul 11, 2012 1:49 AM GMT
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

    Rasmussen Romney up by 3. Sample size 1500 Likely Voters

    The poll most favorable to Obama, Reuters/Ipsos has a sample size of only 885 and is of registered voters. Polls of likely voters generally are more predictive and favor Republicans over registered voters. Getting closer to election day, more polls will use likely voters.

    Overall, the polls are close.

    Interesting article:
    Despite Bain Attacks, Obama Still Struggling
    http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/07/despite-bain-attacks-obama-sti.php
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    Jul 11, 2012 3:03 AM GMT
    Just to emphasize that the outlier poll that the liberals are salivating to is just that. An outlier. Small sample size and registered versus likely voters.
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    Jul 11, 2012 3:09 AM GMT
    can you be any more sophomoric?icon_rolleyes.gif
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    Jul 11, 2012 3:28 AM GMT
    More troubling for Obama is a brand new ABC News / Washington Post Poll

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/07/10/National-Politics/Polling/release_102.xml?uuid=nlO1bMpDEeGNIUXuYXpxKg

    Even though the sample includes 9% more Democrats than Republicans, the results are very bad for Obama. Among the key questions:

    Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy?

    Approve 44
    Disapprove 54

    Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling health care?

    Approve 41
    Disapprove 52

    Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling immigration issues?

    Approve 38
    Disapprove 52

    Q: Do you think things in this country (are generally going in the right direction) or do you feel things (have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track)?

    Right Direction 33
    Wrong Track 63
  • hotsale

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    Jul 11, 2012 3:51 AM GMT
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    Jul 11, 2012 4:00 AM GMT
    lol a pool size of 1500 likely voters - all most likely republicunts, lets be real cuz the GOP likes to skew things in their favor - is not an accurate representation of the overall picture of the country as a whole!

    you tried it, and failed as per usual. now plz change you default pic because i'm tired of seeing your saggy old man moobs. thanks!! (`・ω・´)”
  • Webster666

    Posts: 9217

    Jul 11, 2012 4:05 AM GMT
    You're so full of crap.

    Reuters has OBAMA ahead by 6
    CNN has OBAMA ahead by 3
    Newsweek has OBAMA ahead by 3
    Democracy Corp has OBAMA ahead by 3
    FOX NEWS has OBAMA ahead by 5

    But I didn't feel compelled to start a thread about it.
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    Jul 11, 2012 5:31 AM GMT
    getnassty saidlol a pool size of 1500 likely voters - all most likely republicunts, lets be real cuz the GOP likes to skew things in their favor - is not an accurate representation of the overall picture of the country as a whole!

    you tried it, and failed as per usual. now plz change you default pic because i'm tired of seeing your saggy old man moobs. thanks!! (`・ω・´)”






    the Republican MO is to keep slanting and lieing about facts to benefit their chances of 'winning' at whatever the cost and a bigger part of their MO is to keep repeating the lies as often as possible until they have become fact.


    What was that Goebels said ? "A well placed lie repeated often will always be believed over the truth"
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    Jul 11, 2012 8:53 AM GMT
    Webster666 saidYou're so full of crap.

    Reuters has OBAMA ahead by 6
    CNN has OBAMA ahead by 3
    Newsweek has OBAMA ahead by 3
    Democracy Corp has OBAMA ahead by 3
    FOX NEWS has OBAMA ahead by 5

    But I didn't feel compelled to start a thread about it.

    You neglected to point out the 4 other polls that were tie (2) or Romney ahead (2)

    The other thread took the most extreme poll in favor of Obama and did not mention any other poll. And you had no problems with that thread and posted there. So if anyone is full of crap, look in the mirror.
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    Jul 11, 2012 11:16 AM GMT
    Comrade_Cranky saidEvery professional pollster knows that there is a 4-7 point Republican bias to any Rasmussen poll. They're shameless. Until about a month before the election---then they remove the bias filters so their polls will start to look 'normal'. Seems they actually do care somewhat about being taken seriously, but only when they think people are paying attention.

    What a hack outfit. Says much about the gullibility of anyone who believes them.

    BS. I thought I had previously explained to you the differences in using RV versus LV and how LV results generally favored the GOP by a few points. The material I referenced came from Gallup. Not bothering to dig it up again. Just stew in your own juice this time. BTW - no excuses for the ABC / Wash Post poll?
  • CuriousJockAZ

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    Jul 11, 2012 2:18 PM GMT
    All these polls are just silly. Every single one tells a different story. No way whatsoever to know for sure which one is close to the truth, and the truth is probably changing all the time anyway. Only one poll counts, and it is pretty much up for grabs which way that one might go.
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    Jul 11, 2012 2:28 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ saidAll these polls are just silly. Every single one tells a different story. No way whatsoever to know for sure which one is close to the truth, and the truth is probably changing all the time anyway. Only one poll counts, and it is pretty much up for grabs which way that one might go.

    It is time to start discussing how the polls are used and not make sweeping generalizations. Properly constructed polls, including sampling and phrasing of questions, measure opinion today. They are subject to sampling approach and margin of error. The differences among properly constructed polls outside their margins of error generally reflect differences in sampling approach. Properly and intelligently interpreting a poll includes understanding the specific sampling approach of the poll. Taken repeatedly, they indicate trends. Just because polls can be subject to misinterpretation, either inadvertent or deliberate, is not a problem of the polls, themselves. They are extremely useful to campaigns, even if not understand by many.

    Most serious people who understand polls are not claiming they will at this point predict the election. Polls are like thermometers. They tell the temperature today and can indicate trends if measured over a period of time, but they can't predict the impact of a cold front. If the complaint about polls is they cannot predict, that is just like complaining about thermometers because they can't predict the weather next month.
  • CuriousJockAZ

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    Jul 11, 2012 2:42 PM GMT
    Political history is littered with polls that consistently got it ALL wrong. I don't trust any of them, not a single one.
  • conservativej...

    Posts: 2465

    Jul 11, 2012 2:49 PM GMT
    socalfitness saidhttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

    Rasmussen Romney up by 3. Sample size 1500 Likely Voters

    The poll most favorable to Obama, Reuters/Ipsos has a sample size of only 885 and is of registered voters. Polls of likely voters generally are more predictive and favor Republicans over registered voters. Getting closer to election day, more polls will use likely voters.

    Overall, the polls are close.

    Interesting article:
    Despite Bain Attacks, Obama Still Struggling
    http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/07/despite-bain-attacks-obama-sti.php


    Having been involved in quite a few campaign efforts where one sees different forms of internal polling, I tend to ignore polls published by mainstream media. Mainstream media polls based upon a data set (who they choose to poll) totally compliant with their egalitarian principles. Though races tend to tighten as they approach, November 6, 2012 is going to be an event with results that will be historical.

    Liberals do not understand the enfluence at a personal level and effort of those opposed to Barack Obama.

    It will boil down to whether one believes Barack Obama's excuses or the ownership of reality.

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    Jul 11, 2012 2:54 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ saidPolitical history is littered with polls that consistently got it ALL wrong. I don't trust any of them, not a single one.

    I think your complaint is analogous to complaining about thermometers not predicting the weather.
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    Jul 11, 2012 2:57 PM GMT
    conservativejock said
    socalfitness saidhttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

    Rasmussen Romney up by 3. Sample size 1500 Likely Voters

    The poll most favorable to Obama, Reuters/Ipsos has a sample size of only 885 and is of registered voters. Polls of likely voters generally are more predictive and favor Republicans over registered voters. Getting closer to election day, more polls will use likely voters.

    Overall, the polls are close.

    Interesting article:
    Despite Bain Attacks, Obama Still Struggling
    http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012/07/despite-bain-attacks-obama-sti.php


    Having been involved in quite a few campaign efforts where one sees different forms of internal polling, I tend to ignore polls published by mainstream media. Mainstream media polls based upon a data set (who they choose to poll) totally compliant with their egalitarian principles. Though races tend to tighten as they approach, November 6, 2012 is going to be an event with results that will be historical.

    Liberals do not understand the enfluence at a personal level and effort of those opposed to Barack Obama.

    It will boil down to whether one believes Barack Obama's excuses or the ownership of reality.


    I've seen that occur with a CNN poll. Campaigns making decisions using polls from established organizations will look at the detailed report, study the assumptions, the sampling technique, etc., and decide how relevant the particular poll is to the specific decisions they need to make.
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    Jul 11, 2012 2:57 PM GMT
    socalfitness said
    CuriousJockAZ saidPolitical history is littered with polls that consistently got it ALL wrong. I don't trust any of them, not a single one.

    I think your complaint is analogous to complaining about thermometers not predicting the weather.


    icon_rolleyes.gif

    I agree with Curiousjock; Alberta's polls re: Wildrose Party massive win poll predictions is a prime example.

  • CuriousJockAZ

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    Jul 11, 2012 3:25 PM GMT
    socalfitness said
    CuriousJockAZ saidPolitical history is littered with polls that consistently got it ALL wrong. I don't trust any of them, not a single one.

    I think your complaint is analogous to complaining about thermometers not predicting the weather.



    Okay, I'll give you that. Polls can no more accurately predict an election than a thermometer can predict tomorrow's weather patterns.
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    Jul 11, 2012 3:32 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ said
    socalfitness said
    CuriousJockAZ saidPolitical history is littered with polls that consistently got it ALL wrong. I don't trust any of them, not a single one.

    I think your complaint is analogous to complaining about thermometers not predicting the weather.



    Okay, I'll give you that. Polls can no more accurately predict an election than a thermometer can predict tomorrow's weather patterns.


    rofl!

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    Jul 11, 2012 4:00 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ said
    socalfitness said
    CuriousJockAZ saidPolitical history is littered with polls that consistently got it ALL wrong. I don't trust any of them, not a single one.

    I think your complaint is analogous to complaining about thermometers not predicting the weather.



    Okay, I'll give you that. Polls can no more accurately predict an election than a thermometer can predict tomorrow's weather patterns.

    The polls themselves don't predict, but analysts sometimes can by using poll results. In terms of assessing their past record, often a poll will show one ahead of the other, but within the margin of error. If the one behind actually wins, some may fault the poll, which would not be correct. Additionally, people can change their mind on election day. Polls try and guage the degree of likelihood by asking specific questions. In the end, as helping analysts predict, they are not perfect, but they are in general far from useless.