LGBT Rights Take Center Stage at the Supreme Court: What to Expect Next Week

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    Sep 22, 2012 11:02 AM GMT
    "If the Court decides on Monday to take any of the three LGBT rights cases on the calendar that day, it could announce as early as Tuesday morning that they have been accepted, and those cases will then be on their way to a Supreme Court decision by June 2013.
    Most observers (including me) think it's very likely that the Supreme Court will take at least one of the DOMA cases that are up for consideration over the next few weeks. With the Prop 8 and Arizona cases, it's more likely that the justices will let the lower court rulings stand."
  • Whipmagic

    Posts: 1481

    Sep 22, 2012 5:29 PM GMT
    Agreed. My best guess is that they'll take DOMA, the portion that prohibits the federal government from recognizing gay marriages in states where it is already legal. There have been several decisions from inferior courts on this matter, mostly positive for us, and the legal framework is fairly clear-cut so that the supremes don't have to break too much new ground here. I don't think the other portion of DOMA that allows states to deny recognition to legal gay marriages in other states is quite as far along. As to the Prop 8 case, I'm not sure what to think, but if I had to venture a guess it would be that cert will be denied, meaning the narrow, albeit somewhat harebrainedly reasoned decision by the 9th circuit will stand and gay marriages can resume in CA, and CA only, without any impact anywhere else.