Reasons to be very happy: with poll bias removed by rigorous statistics, Obama is 90% likely to win

  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 25, 2012 12:17 AM GMT
    To counter the bullshit intellectually bankrupt nonsense posted by other posters, I'm pointing out that what I consider to be one of the most rigorous poll analysis sites [using what's known as a meta-analysis; using a large number of polls weighted by their previous success] is predicting Obama is about 90% likely to win:

    http://election.princeton.edu/

    The site also contains, for the mathematically inclined, a careful description of how it works. I am very happy to explain anything anyone doesn't understand.

    Don't think, btw, that this absolves you Democrats from going out and voting.
  • comfortablynu...

    Posts: 230

    Sep 25, 2012 12:25 AM GMT
    Great resource, thanks for posting.

    Don't worry, I will be voting. Even more excited now that this website has told me my vote is worth the most jerseyvotes.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 25, 2012 12:34 AM GMT
    Statistics? Math? Liberal claptrap. icon_lol.gif
    [url]http://conservapedia.com/E%3Dmc%C2%B2[/url]
    "Simply put, E=mc² is liberal claptrap. "
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    Sep 25, 2012 1:06 AM GMT
    comfortablynumb saidGreat resource, thanks for posting.

    Don't worry, I will be voting. Even more excited now that this website has told me my vote is worth the most jerseyvotes.


    As much as I love New Hampshire [I live in Boston], that slightly terrifies me ;-)

    Off topic I can't wait for snowboard season!
  • TroyAthlete

    Posts: 4269

    Sep 25, 2012 2:25 AM GMT
    Facts have a liberal bias.
  • tazzari

    Posts: 2942

    Sep 25, 2012 3:33 AM GMT
    God hates facts.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 25, 2012 4:36 AM GMT
    Ugh facts are sooo inconvenient...
  • comfortablynu...

    Posts: 230

    Sep 25, 2012 6:19 AM GMT
    TigerTim said
    comfortablynumb saidGreat resource, thanks for posting.

    Don't worry, I will be voting. Even more excited now that this website has told me my vote is worth the most jerseyvotes.


    As much as I love New Hampshire [I live in Boston], that slightly terrifies me ;-)

    Off topic I can't wait for snowboard season!


    I think we've recovered from our temporary bout with insanity that hit in 2010. It's still competitive, but things look good for Democrats statewide this year.

    If Democrats sweep the state our Governor, both Senators and our measly 2 member House delegation will all be of the lady variety.
  • Webster666

    Posts: 9217

    Sep 25, 2012 6:46 AM GMT
    We'll be reelecting our Democratic President, our Democratic Senator, and our Democratic House member.

    A 90% chance of winning.
    That sounds about right.

    "Does anybody know how to get this airplane window open ?" LOL.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 25, 2012 12:54 PM GMT
    comfortablynumb said
    TigerTim said
    comfortablynumb saidGreat resource, thanks for posting.

    Don't worry, I will be voting. Even more excited now that this website has told me my vote is worth the most jerseyvotes.


    As much as I love New Hampshire [I live in Boston], that slightly terrifies me ;-)

    Off topic I can't wait for snowboard season!


    I think we've recovered from our temporary bout with insanity that hit in 2010. It's still competitive, but things look good for Democrats statewide this year.

    If Democrats sweep the state our Governor, both Senators and our measly 2 member House delegation will all be of the lady variety.


    All extra reasons to hit NH for snow season!
  • allatonce

    Posts: 904

    Sep 25, 2012 1:13 PM GMT
    Never let facts stop you from being right, that's what I always say.
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    Sep 25, 2012 2:18 PM GMT
    bostonsam saidI just took a look at that site and it's all based on the polls that are overweighted Democratic party. So OF COURSE it will make it appear that an Obama win is almost a certainty, LOL.

    http://election.princeton.edu/faq/

    Look, if that's what you all want to believe because it will help you sleep from now until election day that's fine with me but you could be setting yourselves up for a major morning after shock.



    Correct that they use state polls as input which are known to be biased [in both directions depending on the state]. But you misunderstand the technique.

    This is the point: knowing that a set of polls is biased is an easy problem to deal with mathematically provided you use the right technique.

    Roughly, *adding* together a set of noisy data *reduces* the noise in the data.
    *subtracting* noisy data from other noisy data *amplifies* the noise.

    Because their meta-analysis is essentially an *adding* technique, the noise induced by poll bias is reduced.

    In any case, like any good scientists, the nice people at Princeton have a clear open statement about how well their technique works:

    http://election.princeton.edu/2010/11/05/howd-we-do-2010-edition/

    and, if you note, correctly predicted the Republican landslide of 2010. In fact they've correctly called the last several lessons.... and only using the wonderful nature of mathematics!

    The reason I'm posting this is because I'm sick of the made-up nonsense that some people on here post on a daily basis. It is, frankly, difficult to assess whether some of you are merely stupid or delusional. I think we could all have a better discussion if people were more open minded and based their arguments on rigor and evidence.
  • GQjock

    Posts: 11649

    Sep 25, 2012 7:46 PM GMT
    Princeton.edu
    vs QStar News a republican blogsite

    Lemme weigh the balance .... Hmmmmmmmmmm icon_rolleyes.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 25, 2012 8:57 PM GMT
    It's nice to see some factual info posted on the likely outcome of this election.

    The facts of the historical record also overwhelmingly indicate a win for Obama:
    http://m.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/09/obamas-lead-starting-look-insurmountable?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

    The number of rigged bogus right-wing pollsters that we've seen in this election is unprecedented.

    For years now - the Repubs have been desperately trying to influence the outcome of our elections with the help of the spin machine Fox "News".
    And now we're seeing a bunch of phony non-credible right-wing pollsters which have been created in a further effort to try to spin voters.

    If only the Repubs took all the work and $$$$$$$ that they're pouring into propaganda efforts - and put it into trying to help the American people.
    Both the GOP and our country would be a lot better off.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 25, 2012 9:10 PM GMT
    "If only the Repubs took all the work and $$$$$$$ that they're pouring into propaganda efforts - and put it into trying to help the American people."


    OH HELL, I'd be happy if they put that $$$$$ into creating ANYTHING....even simply use the money to make themselves happier.

    The last 3 years have been an amazing opportunity for entrepreneurs. NEW FORTUNES ARE BEING MADE....NOW!

    And yet we've got this entire group of WHINERS who are sitting on the sidelines, drowning themselves in negative propaganda:
    *TAXES....REGULATIONS....A SOCIALIST PRESIDENT

    "Why Even Get Out of Bed !" they tell themselves.

    IF these Repubs don't get off their asses soon, they're all going to end up on WELFARE !

    Meanwhile, those of us who are FORWARD-THINKING are coping well and creating our own prosperity.

  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 25, 2012 9:26 PM GMT
    RickRick91 saidIt's nice to see some factual info posted on the likely outcome of this election.


    I do object to your abuse of the word "fact". The only facts here are the individual poll reports. It is whether they measure what they claim to measure is in question, and whether or not there is a rigorous procedure to determine what the likely outcome of the election is from polls which individually are not good predictors.

    This is an important and very subtle issue, so I want people to be very careful with their language.
  • Webster666

    Posts: 9217

    Sep 25, 2012 10:16 PM GMT
    bostonsam saidI just took a look at that site and it's all based on the polls that are overweighted Democratic party. So OF COURSE it will make it appear that an Obama win is almost a certainty, LOL.

    http://election.princeton.edu/faq/

    Look, if that's what you all want to believe because it will help you sleep from now until election day that's fine with me but you could be setting yourselves up for a major morning after shock.




    It just amazes me that Republicans (and, I don't mean professional politicians. I mean regular voters) can't bring themselves to admit that their candidate is way behind, and not expected to survive.

    In past elections, "Real Clear Politics," which takes the average of a large number of polls (biased and unbiased) and consistently projects extremely accurate results.

    I can't wait for election day, when we can stuff your ridiculous BS, down your throats.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 25, 2012 10:30 PM GMT
    One finds it amusingly entertaining how ignorantly blind the majority of the left here are concerning the democrat and it's failures. last elections I was to witness the abyss of their contemptuous hate, for anything the even looks like it leans to the right, their is just not depth to their wickedness, or their hatful bastardisations of anything conservative, or their families, and your delusional blindness and lie are just so bloody entertaining too.

    But the one thing many of you have in commion with Obama is that he like you is all about: me, me, me, me, me..

    Oh Obama, so pretty, such a failure.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 26, 2012 1:26 AM GMT
    Im having a lot of trouble seeing how a meta analysis from Princeton of poll data that successfully predicted the republican gains in 2010 is a radical tool of the crazy left.

    As is typical, when people have no point to make they simply accuse their opponents of being crazy. Not a very persuasive argument, is it?
  • rnch

    Posts: 11525

    Sep 26, 2012 1:36 PM GMT
    TigerTim saidTo counter the bullshit intellectually bankrupt nonsense posted by other posters, *cough*Southbeach/Bostonsam*cough* I'm pointing out that what I consider to be one of the most rigorous poll analysis sites [using what's known as a meta-analysis; using a large number of polls weighted by their previous success] is predicting Obama is about 90% likely to win:

    http://election.princeton.edu/

    The site also contains, for the mathematically inclined, a careful description of how it works. I am very happy to explain anything anyone doesn't understand.

    Don't think, btw, that this absolves you Democrats from going out and voting.
  • GQjock

    Posts: 11649

    Sep 26, 2012 2:43 PM GMT
    I love the way republicans think

    The world has been working on the principle of evolution since time began
    .... but not according to republicans

    The climate has been changing before our eyes
    .... but no republicans don't think so

    There have been no voter fraud cases on any scale anywhere in the country
    .... but according to republicans voter fraud is rampant

    When a Presidential candidate has been caught lying and fact checkers have called him on it
    ..... republicans say we need to check the fact checkers

    and NOW because every poll EVEN FOX NEWS has stated Obama is ahead of the republican candidate
    ..... republicans are now saying that the polls are SKEWED

    Maybe there is something to String Theory
    and republicans live in an alternate universe icon_rolleyes.gif
  • thadjock

    Posts: 2183

    Sep 26, 2012 3:01 PM GMT
    a lead in the national polls is nice but it's news like this that makes me smile http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57520341/poll-obama-opens-substantial-leads-in-key-swing-states/

    Mr. Obama holds a 10-point lead in Ohio among those who say they will definitely vote, a lead propelled by a 25-point advantage among women.

    how's that no abortion plank workin out for you Romney?
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 27, 2012 3:36 PM GMT
    jprichva said
    bostonsam saidI am one of the left

    No, you're not.


    Of course not, someone who is "one of the left" or even a centrist or moderate generally doesn't use buzzwords like "radical extremist leftist" and "angry mob."

    I still don't get what he thinks he is accomplishing with this clumsy, patently ridiculous charade.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 27, 2012 3:37 PM GMT
    We'll see. icon_smile.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 27, 2012 8:57 PM GMT
    showme said
    jprichva said
    bostonsam saidI am one of the left

    No, you're not.


    Of course not, someone who is "one of the left" or even a centrist or moderate generally doesn't use buzzwords like "radical extremist leftist" and "angry mob."

    I still don't get what he thinks he is accomplishing with this clumsy, patently ridiculous charade.





    It's Southbeach.
    What do you expect from SB?

    He must be just trying to amuse himself by attempting to get a reaction from us.
    He can't be dumb enough to think that he's fooling anyone or changing any minds.

    Of course he's just making himself look foolish - but apparently he can't see that.