VP Debate Instapoll Results: CBS Biden 50%-31%, CNN Ryan 48%-44%, AP Ryan 51%-43%

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    Oct 12, 2012 11:37 AM GMT
    People still watch cbs?

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/thoughts-on-the-vice-presidential-debate/article/2510553#.UHgAdMXoSmx

    The instant polls: CNBC had it Ryan 56%-36%, CBS Biden 50%-31%, CNN Ryan 48%-44%, AP Ryan 51%-43%. Not nearly as one-sided as the instant responses to the first presidential debate in Denver. My sense: Biden pumped up partisan Democrats, but failed to win over the voters who are taking a serious look at Romney at a point when he is up in national polls.


    [title updated to reflect that CNBC's poll was just a web poll]

    But... given no one scored a knock out... Ryan appeared more likeable and more "in touch" with America's problems.

    cnn_biden_debate_10-11-12.jpg

  • comfortablynu...

    Posts: 230

    Oct 12, 2012 11:51 AM GMT
    Where's the AP poll? I can't seem to find it anywhere outside of Twitter.

    CNBC "poll" was a web survery. They updated their results later:

    "[UPDATED POLL RESULTS] Who do you think won the VP Debate? Joe Biden: 52%, Paul Ryan: 44%, Neither: 4%. (Track here: cnb.cx/RjX8aS)"

    CBS poll was the only one done of uncommitted voters and had a larger sample size. CNN sample was of registered voters.

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    Oct 12, 2012 12:06 PM GMT
    comfortablynumb saidWhere's the AP poll? I can't seem to find it anywhere outside of Twitter.

    CNBC "poll" was a web survery. They updated their results later:

    "[UPDATED POLL RESULTS] Who do you think won the VP Debate? Joe Biden: 52%, Paul Ryan: 44%, Neither: 4%. (Track here: cnb.cx/RjX8aS)"

    CBS poll was the only one done of uncommitted voters and had a larger sample size. CNN sample was of registered voters.



    The CBS poll was an online poll with a +8 D bias of 431 people. "The "uncommitted voters" who participated in this poll are either undecided or have chosen a candidate but say they could still change their minds. They are less likely than voters overall to identify with either of the two major political parties: 58 percent call themselves independents, 17 percent identify as Republicans, and 25 percent say they are Democrats."

    The CNN poll probably tells the best picture but both were in the margin of error. I think it's clear that no one got a knock out punch compared to the Presidential debate where Romney dominated. But in that, it's a win for both the Republicans and the Democrats given both needed to appeal to their base and neither could come across as crazy to independents.

    Also noteworthy - Biden outright lied about security requests in Libya:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=sviBtN3uirE
    more here - http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/10/11/biden_contradicts_state_department_on_benghazi_security
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    Oct 12, 2012 12:09 PM GMT
    More here on the CBS Poll:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/12/vice-presidential-debate-polls-results_n_1960147.html

    Biden also impressed respondents with his knowledge of the issues. After the debate, 85 percent of respondents said Biden was knowledgeable on the issues, while 75 percent said so of Ryan.

    The candidates were more closely matched on whether respondents said they could relate to them. Before the debate, 34 percent of respondents said they could relate to Biden, while 55 percent said so after. Ryan's rating on the measure increased from 31 percent to 48 percent.

    The CBS News poll was conducted using the GfK KnowledgePanel, a representative Internet panel, to interview 431 uncommitted voters who watched the debate, and had a five percentage point margin of error. The CBS "uncommitted voters" include those who were either totally undecided before the debate or who were leaning to a candidate, but said they may still change their minds. According to CBS, 58 percent of respondents identified as independents, 17 percent as Republicans, and 25 percent as Democrats.

    After last week's first presidential debate between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, both the CNN and CBS post-debate surveys found Romney with a big victory. Polls conducted over the course of the past week have shown a bounce for Romney in national and state polls.
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    Oct 12, 2012 12:46 PM GMT
    The Democrat base may like Joe's surreal performance, but those concerned with serious national issues were probably not amused or impressed.

    Some have observed that Biden acted like he had too much Red Bull. Over eighty annoying incidents of interrupting and trying to talk over Ryan, plus the goofy grins, should make anyone uneasy that this clown is "one heartbeat away" from the presidency.

    Ryan was solid in the face of Biden's heckling. By taking the high road, Ryan looked much more presidential.

    The first two debates showed that the Obama administration has little to offer in terms of substantive policies to address the nation's serious foreign and domestic concerns. Unable to defend their sorry record, the Obama campaign engages in Chicago-style thuggery, including repeating known lies about Romney-Ryan.

    The voters will fix this problem in a few weeks.

    BTW, Martha Raddatz is not qualified to moderate a debate in which one of the participants is out of control.

    BidenFacesInDebate2WebCR-10_12_12-thumb-

    Congrats to the GOP for quickly responding to Joe's performance.

  • comfortablynu...

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    Oct 12, 2012 1:38 PM GMT
    Lol... CNN themselves admitted that their snap poll over samples republicans by 8 points based on their poll of average American's party identity.
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    Oct 12, 2012 1:39 PM GMT
    Whether we like it or not, Biden did a better job last night--and no amount partisan spin can change that. Likewise, Obama did his party a disservice for his poor peformance over a week ago, and nothing can change that either. Ryan held is own, no doubt, but Biden was impressive and did not give Ryan much wiggle room. In my line of work, when we're able to get someone to admit something prejudicial on the witness stand, we call that a success. Last night, there were a couple of those instances--the one that is likely to resonate the most with the undecided voters is the "stimulus" discussion in which Biden "impeached" Ryan with his own letter. Don't underestimate the importance of that one moment. Unlike Obama, however, Ryan did not disappoint his camp, except for a few instances in which he showed a bit of discomfort. All in all, a good performance by Ryan, but a better performance by Biden.
  • comfortablynu...

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    Oct 12, 2012 1:40 PM GMT
    I know it's hard for this fact to break through the bubble, but there are more democrats in this country than there are republicans.
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    Oct 12, 2012 1:42 PM GMT
    comfortablynumb saidLol... CNN themselves admitted that their snap poll over samples republicans by 8 points based on their poll of average American's party identity.


    Here's the data from the Pew Polling for party identification - and yet look at the numbers from the CBS poll - so CNN's "oversampling" is not as large as the 8 percent that's claimed by some:

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/poll-romney-takes-narrow-lead-after-dominating-debate-20121008

    As a result, more Republicans are making it through the likely-voter screen, giving the GOP a 5-point advantage on party identification, a significant change from last month, when Democrats held a 10-point advantage. Republicans now make up 36 percent of likely voters, up from 29 percent last month. Democratic identification among likely voters declined from 39 percent last month, to 31 percent now.
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    Oct 12, 2012 1:45 PM GMT
    DOMINUS saidWhether we like it or not, Biden did a better job last night--and no amount partisan spin can change that. Likewise, Obama did his party a disservice for his poor peformance over a week ago, and nothing can change that either. Ryan held is own, no doubt, but Biden was impressive and did not give Ryan much wiggle room. In my line of work, when we're able to get someone to admit something prejudicial on the witness stand, we call that a success. Last night, there were a couple of those instances--the one that is likely to resonate the most with the undecided voters is the "stimulus" discussion in which Biden "impeached" Ryan with his own letter. Don't underestimate the importance of that one moment. Unlike Obama, however, Ryan did not disappoint his camp, except for a few instances in which he showed a bit of discomfort. All in all, a good performance by Ryan, but a better performance by Biden.


    It's hardly clear that Biden did a better job - and given how derisive he was - it's almost sort of a Rorschach test. His performance would appeal more to partisans as many have pointed out. I think it's a wash... but in that it's also a bit of a loss for the Democrats who need to regain the momentum.
  • comfortablynu...

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    Oct 12, 2012 1:47 PM GMT
    It was not claimed by some, it was admitted by CNN in a "special note of caution" in their polling data.
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    Oct 12, 2012 1:47 PM GMT
    Yep, the CNN poll basically reflects spot on the performance. Both did very well. Ryan edged him out despite the moderating bias, and the poll reflects that.
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    Oct 12, 2012 1:47 PM GMT
    comfortablynumb saidI know it's hard for this fact to break through the bubble, but there are more democrats in this country than there are republicans.


    Citation required. Here's Rasmussen on the subject, with the latest data from September:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

    September 30, 2012
    Republican Democrat Other R - D Quarterly
    2012
    Sep 36.8% 34.2% 29.0% 2.6% 2.6%
    Aug 37.6% 33.3% 29.2% 4.3%

    Apparently, Obama has been a boon for Republican membership.
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    Oct 12, 2012 1:51 PM GMT
    comfortablynumb saidIt was not claimed by some, it was admitted by CNN in a "special note of caution" in their polling data.


    No it's claimed by some. Here's what CNN actually said:

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/11/cnn-poll-on-debate-winner-ryan-48-biden-44/

    One-third of the respondents who participated in tonight's survey identified themselves as Republicans, with 31% identifying themselves as Democrats, and 34% identifying themselves as independents.

    "That indicates that the sample of debate watchers is more Republican than an average of recent CNN polls of all Americans," adds Holland.


    To suggest that the 8% difference is to the Republican advantage seems to be an editorial unless you can cite it. Further, the data from other sources suggests that their balance isn't as imbalanced as they themselves cite even if their historical polling has shown that there are more Dems than Republicans.
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    Oct 12, 2012 1:55 PM GMT
    comfortablynumb saidI know it's hard for this fact to break through the bubble, but there are more democrats in this country than there are republicans.


    Here's Gallup on the same issue (which gives the D's a 32-28 numbers advantage in party identification - hardly the substantial difference as claimed by you for the general population) - again, it would seem that the best antidote to falling numbers for Republicans has been the Obama Administration:
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

    4hskdbsig0sdjxqbbwgwlg.gif

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    Oct 12, 2012 1:57 PM GMT
    DOMINUS saidWhether we like it or not, Biden did a better job last night--and no amount partisan spin can change that. Likewise, Obama did his party a disservice for his poor peformance over a week ago, and nothing can change that either. Ryan held is own, no doubt, but Biden was impressive and did not give Ryan much wiggle room. In my line of work, when we're able to get someone to admit something prejudicial on the witness stand, we call that a success. Last night, there were a couple of those instances--the one that is likely to resonate the most with the undecided voters is the "stimulus" discussion in which Biden "impeached" Ryan with his own letter. Don't underestimate the importance of that one moment. Unlike Obama, however, Ryan did not disappoint his camp, except for a few instances in which he showed a bit of discomfort. All in all, a good performance by Ryan, but a better performance by Biden.


    Haha, nice spin. No. Ryan won. Sorry, your spin didn't change that.
  • mybud

    Posts: 11837

    Oct 12, 2012 1:58 PM GMT
    It's so funny...it is to laugh....When these survey's go the republicans way they boost about them....When it turns negative they state survey's mean nothing..Biden did what he had to do...He shed light on what Romney's VOODOO economics means to the 47% they hate so much..... A 20% tax break for the !%...That's 120,000 individuals...The richest of the rich....Do away with Obamacare...Romney tells people who have heart attacks those who are dying in their apartments to..."Go to the emergency room for medical care"...Romney you dumb motherfucker....That's why are health costs are so high...Uninsured people going to the hospital for free care...Romney talks out of his mouth one minute...His ass the next...
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    Oct 12, 2012 2:19 PM GMT
    mybud saidIt's so funny...it is to laugh....When these survey's go the republicans way they boost about them....When it turns negative they state survey's mean nothing..Biden did what he had to do...He shed light on what Romney's VOODOO economics means to the 47% they hate so much..... A 20% tax break for the !%...That's 120,000 individuals...The richest of the rich....Do away with Obamacare...Romney tells people who have heart attacks those who are dying in their apartments to..."Go to the emergency room for medical care"...Romney you dumb motherfucker....That's why are health costs are so high...Uninsured people going to the hospital for free care...Romney talks out of his mouth one minute...His ass the next...


    That cuts both ways on the issue of polling and what is clearly party identification here - which is the ironic part of your post.

    Biden didn't do what he needed to do to regain the momentum but he recaptured some of the base. And to speculate, there's a reason they don't publicize the 47% number strategically amongst Dems - and that's more because it's true...

    Obamacare has meant that there have been more part time jobs instead of full time - with employers downgrading their employees. Now that's hope and change for you - albeit entirely predictable.
  • comfortablynu...

    Posts: 230

    Oct 12, 2012 2:19 PM GMT
    http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/pollingcenter/polls/3262

    Read the fine print titled According To This Poll...
  • HottJoe

    Posts: 21366

    Oct 12, 2012 2:44 PM GMT
    How can you say that Ryan appeared more likeable and in touch, when he wants to dictate over women's bodies, based on Catholic preachings?

    Biden, also a Catholic, pointed out that he's not going to force his religious views on women. That's what makes him more in touch with how people feel about religious dictators.

    I really doubt that even you, Riddler, can deny that Catholicism has no place in policy crafting.
  • comfortablynu...

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    Oct 12, 2012 2:44 PM GMT
    Regardless, the independent respondents is the important number. They are the votes these debates are aimed at. Where CNN's poll included only a third of independents with no data as to whether their sample was attached to a candidate before the debate, CBS's sample was over half independents with none of their respondents being committed to a candidate. It's pretty clear which poll carries more weight.
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19133

    Oct 12, 2012 3:23 PM GMT
    This is one debate in which there was clearly no clear winner. Both sides are claiming victory, unlike the last debate which was clearly a Romney win. This time around, if you want to believe polls, said polls will probably show a wide variety from a big Biden win to a big Ryan win, and many calling it a tie. I'm sure throughout the day and over the weekend we will get a clearer picture of how American voters read this debate overall, but I'd bet money it will pretty much be a toss up in which both men held their own and achieved what they needed to, with no real gaffes or missteps -- other than Biden's overly animated and often-times inappropriate smiles, laughs, and interruptions --- but that's just Joe Biden and it likely will not hurt him or the campaign.
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    Oct 12, 2012 3:30 PM GMT
    HottJoe saidHow can you say that Ryan appeared more likeable and in touch, when he wants to dictate over women's bodies, based on Catholic preachings?

    Biden, also a Catholic, pointed out that he's not going to force his religious views on women. That's what makes him more in touch with how people feel about religious dictators.

    I really doubt that even you, Riddler, can deny that Catholicism has no place in policy crafting.


    You or I may not agree with Ryan's "DEFINITION" of when life begins, but there's something you just aren't GETTING. If LIFE BEGINS AT CONCEPTION (yes, people DO have different opinions about when this occurs) then it is a human being and the state must protect that human being from being harmed by the mother, just like it strives to protect YOU. In Ryan's mind, if a woman is pregnant, she no longer is just "dictating over her own body" but is rather responsible for another human being that is, according to his definition a HUMAN BEING. Get it? No...that will likely take some time...

    It's just a stupid wedge issue, when all is said and done and there's no way Roe vs Wade is going to be undone.
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19133

    Oct 12, 2012 3:37 PM GMT
    HottJoe saidHow can you say that Ryan appeared more likeable and in touch, when he wants to dictate over women's bodies, based on Catholic preachings?



    Ryan said nothing of the kind. He made it clear that his feelings about abortion were based on science and life experience --- he even illustrated this with the story of he and his wife looking at the sonogram of their first born at 7 weeks saying it looked like a "bean with a heartbeat". You're also deluding yourself if you think that ALL women are pro-choice -- they aren't. Pro-life is pro-life, and many women are against abortion.
  • comfortablynu...

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    Oct 12, 2012 4:17 PM GMT
    Ryan said his opinion on abortion was based on science, but then backed it up wih an anecdote about a bean with a heartbeat. It was a complete appeal to emotion (fallacy, not science). Biden's answer, bein personally against abortion but not of the mind that he should be making the decision for people, was much more in line with American values.

    Ginsberg is likely not going to stay on the Supreme Court through another presidential term. Roe V. Wade could very well be overturned by the next court depending in who is making appointments. Calling something that effects the lives of women across the country a "stupid wedge issue" is a cop out.