Oct 22, 2012 6:00 AM GMT
Hello, I’m Wayne Allyn Root for PersonalLiberty.com. My commentary right here at PersonalLiberty.com predicting a Mitt Romney landslide victory back in the spring attracted tremendous attention... It was read and forwarded all over the country. I was called by media from coast to coast to talk about it. The reason it was taken so seriously is my track record as a well-known Las Vegas oddsmaker (the only one in history awarded my own 180-pound granite star in the sidewalk in Las Vegas at the Las Vegas Walk of Stars) and, even more importantly, my track record of predicting political races.
In November of 2004, only days before the Presidential election, I went on CNBC and predicted a George W. Bush victory by 3 points and 30 electoral votes. Every poll at the time showed John Kerry in the lead. Bush won by 3 and 35. Newsmax magazine called it the most accurate prediction of 2004.
In October of 2006, I went on Fox News to predict the GOP would get slaughtered in the midterm election and lose Congress. It did.
In December 2011, before the GOP primary, I predicted Mitt Romney would win the GOP Presidential nomination and go on to win the Presidency. For the next few months, Romney trailed by a wide margin to a range of contenders: Donald Trump, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum. It seemed no one wanted Mitt for President. It seemed no one believed in Mitt — no one, that is, except this Las Vegas oddsmaker and capitalist evangelist.
Fast-forward to spring 2012 after Romney clinched the GOP Presidential race but trailed in every poll to President Barack Obama. I boldly predicted a Mitt Romney landslide on Nov. 6.
Fast-forward to June 2012 when experts forecast a defeat for Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in his recall election. Unions were pouring unheard-of sums into the race in a longtime Democratic State that welcomes union rights. I boldly predicted a Walker landslide victory of 7 to 10 points. He won by exactly 7 (despite reported Democratic voter irregularities).
For the past month, as Mitt Romney trailed badly in every poll (especially in the all-important battleground States), I continued to predict a big Romney victory. Today I’m making it official: I’m doubling down. Mitt Romney will win the Presidency, and it won’t be close.
I’m predicting a 5- to 7-point popular vote victory. Electorally, it won’t be that close. Romney will win many States that went to Obama in 2008. I’m predicting Romney victories in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Indiana. I predict a Romney victory by 100 to 120 electoral votes.
In the days before the first Presidential debate, polls showed Romney trailing badly in most of those States. But, as I’ve argued from day one, the polls are wrong. They are badly skewed toward Democrats. Quite simply, they are over-polling Democratic voters and assuming a turnout that looks like 2008, when record numbers of Democrats came out for Obama.
After Romney’s overwhelming victory in the first debate, he now leads or is dead even in battleground States where, only days before, he was supposedly way behind. My contention is a 1-point Romney lead in those Democrat-skewed polls is really a comfortable 5- to 7-point Romney lead on Election Day.
There are several specific reasons I predict a comfortable Romney victory on Election Day:
The news media are ignoring signs of mass revulsion towards Obama. In the West Virginia Democratic primary, a felon got 40 percent of the vote versus Obama. In deep-blue Massachusetts and Connecticut, GOP Senate candidates are even or leading in recent polls. In pro-union Wisconsin, Walker won by a country mile. But worst of all for Obama, several recent polls show Romney competitive in Illinois — Obama’s home State. Romney is actually winning by a landslide in the suburbs of Obama’s Chicago. Even in Cook County, the country’s biggest Democratic stronghold, Romney leads by double digits among independents (43-31) and white voters (53-40). These are very bad signs for Obama.
In 2008, Democrats overwhelmingly controlled the majority of Governorships. Today, Republicans control the majority of Governorships. Presidential elections are always steered in each State by the Governor, the most powerful force in State politics.
After the 2010 census, electoral votes were added to States that lean Republican in elections: Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, South Carolina and Utah. Deep-blue Democratic States like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Massachusetts lost electoral votes.
That brings up an interesting point. Why is everyone running away from these ultra-liberal, high-tax States in the first place? Isn’t that alone proof of the failure of Democratic ideas?
Next, follow the money trail. Yes, Obama is raising plenty of money, although there is a major question if it’s coming from illegal foreign contributors. But forget all that. What matters is that in 2008 Obama overwhelmed McCain by outspending him 10 to 1 down the stretch. That won’t happen in 2012. Romney is even with Obama, in the last two weeks of the election. That makes a huge difference in the outcome.
Christians will turn out in record numbers this year. Obama has offended Christians again and again. In the last election, 20 million evangelical Christians did not vote. They will turn out in record numbers in 2012 to defeat the most anti-Christian President in U.S. history. How motivated are Christians? Did you see the long lines around the country to support Chick-fil-A a few weeks ago? You’ll see those same lines on Election Day.
Voter rolls have been purged in 2012 of felons and illegals in many States, particularly Florida and Ohio. Turnout of Democrats will be nothing like 2008. That brings up another important question. What kind of political party relies on felons and people illegally in the country to win elections?
The “enthusiasm factor” for Romney is huge. Conservatives are focused, intense, motivated and enthusiastic. Democrats turned out for Obama in record numbers in 2008. Today, they are demoralized. A big edge goes to Romney on Election Day as conservatives, white voters, middle-class voters and independents turn out in record numbers for Romney. I know several people who voted for Obama in 2008, but never will again. Does anyone know a McCain voter who will vote for Obama in 2012? There are none.
Finally, history proves that a majority of undecided voters break for the challenger. Romney will take most of the undecided voters on Election Day — just like Ronald Reagan did versus Jimmy Carter in 1980. Romney’s fantastic debate performance gave them confidence to choose the challenger. This is Carter/Reagan all over again. The same horrible economy. The same economically ignorant fool in the White House bringing misery to Americans. The same economic collapse under the weight of socialist, pro-union, soak-the-rich, demonize-the-business-owners policies.
I predict the same result on Election Day. Mitt Romney will win in a landslide. And If I’m wrong, God help the United States of America.
I’m Wayne Allyn Root for Personal Liberty. See you right back here next week. Same time, same place. God Bless.