Reality Check: Electoral math continues to favor Obama

  • KissTheSky

    Posts: 1981

    Oct 25, 2012 12:51 AM GMT
    Politico observes that for all of the Republican bluster about an imminent Romney victory, the numbers just don’t add up:

    "As an antidote to the (perhaps) irrational Republican exuberance that seems to have seized D.C., we pause for the following public-service announcement. To be President, you have to win states, not debates. And Mitt Romney has a problem. Despite one great debate and what The Wall Street Journal’s Neil King Jr. on Sunday called a polling “surge,” Romney has not put away a single one of the must-have states. President Obama remains the favorite because he only needs to win a couple of the toss-ups. Mitt needs to win most of them. A cold shower for the GOP: Most polling shows Romney trailing in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa – by MORE than Obama trails in North Carolina. Glenn Thrush and Jonathan Martin reminded of us of the 2008 primary analogy: Whatever else Hillary Clinton had, Barack Obama had the math. And math, not momentum, gets you the big house, the bulletproof car, the cool plane. We now resume our regularly scheduled Playbook."

    And Nate Silver’s latest tally over at FiveThirtyEight backs this up.

    Nate shows Romney with 48.9% of the popular vote, to Obama’s 50.0%, but once you factor in the electoral vote, which is how you actually win a presidential election, Romney has a 31.9% chance of
    winning and Obama a 68.1% chance
    .

    By looking at the graphs on Nate’s site, you can see that Romney’s “surge” stopped around October 13 or 14, a few days after the VP debate, and a few days before the second presidential debate. From that date on, for the past ten days, Obama and Romney have remained stagnant in the popular vote, each retaining their share of the vote, while Obama’s chances of winning have steadily risen from 61% to 68%.

    http://americablog.com/2012/10/romney-swing-states-polls-electoral-vote.html
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Oct 25, 2012 12:56 AM GMT
    I agree with this assessment.

    Obama needs to pull out victories in Ohio, Colorado and one more state and he will win this election. I think he will win either Iowa or Wisconsin. Romney could win Florida, NC, Virginia and if Obama took CO, OH and WI then Obama wins.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Oct 25, 2012 2:54 AM GMT
    The writing is on the wall. Prepare yourselves for the inevitable. You know it is coming. It's about as obvious as the nose on your faces. You can smell the F-E-A-R because the end of The Obama Era is N-E-A-R.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Oct 25, 2012 3:25 AM GMT
    topathlete saidhttp://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate/nevada
    Nate Silver Nevada 2010 Final Prediction: Sharron Angle+3. Actual Result: Harry Reid +5

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/
    Obama 201 Toss Ups 131 Romney 206

    Um, unless you were asleep in 2010, everyone was speculating about whether or not Harry Reid was in trouble, considering he's among those on the GOP's "Most Hated Senators" list. And 2010 was a VERY good year for Republicans, so there was reason to believe he'd be voted out, as well.

    Other than that mistake in 2010 and the incorrect prediction that McCain would win Indiana in 2008, Nate Silver's been on the money.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Oct 25, 2012 3:58 AM GMT
    DontQuoteMe saidThe writing is on the wall. Prepare yourselves for the inevitable. You know it is coming. It's about as obvious as the nose on your faces. You can smell the F-E-A-R because the end of The Obama Era is N-E-A-R.


    Very creative sir. However if Romney does somehow pull out a victory it will be an upset. The numbers favor Obama. Just gotta win 51% of each state to get all the votes.
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19138

    Oct 25, 2012 4:23 AM GMT
    msuNtx saidif Romney does somehow pull out a victory it will be an upset. The numbers favor Obama. Just gotta win 51% of each state to get all the votes.


    It's usually called an upset if the incumbent loses. The numbers are increasingly beginning to favor Romney. Regardless, it's been "too close to call" for weeks, so Romney winning would not be that big of a surprise to those who support him. It's actually looking more and more likely with each passing day.
  • coolarmydude

    Posts: 9190

    Oct 25, 2012 4:49 AM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ said
    msuNtx saidif Romney does somehow pull out a victory it will be an upset. The numbers favor Obama. Just gotta win 51% of each state to get all the votes.


    It's usually called an upset if the incumbent loses. The numbers are increasingly beginning to favor Romney. Regardless, it's been "too close to call" for weeks, so Romney winning would not be that big of a surprise to those who support him. It's actually looking more and more likely with each passing day.


    ^This from the guy who previously dismissed polls.
  • Webster666

    Posts: 9217

    Oct 25, 2012 5:18 AM GMT
    DontQuoteMe saidThe writing is on the wall. Prepare yourselves for the inevitable. You know it is coming. It's about as obvious as the nose on your faces. You can smell the F-E-A-R because the end of The Obama Era is N-E-A-R.



    As they taught us, when I was studying law, without evidence, you don't have a case.
    Where's your evidence to support your bloviating ?
  • Webster666

    Posts: 9217

    Oct 25, 2012 5:21 AM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ said
    msuNtx saidif Romney does somehow pull out a victory it will be an upset. The numbers favor Obama. Just gotta win 51% of each state to get all the votes.


    It's usually called an upset if the incumbent loses. The numbers are increasingly beginning to favor Romney. Regardless, it's been "too close to call" for weeks, so Romney winning would not be that big of a surprise to those who support him. It's actually looking more and more likely with each passing day.



    I promise you that it would be more of a shock to Republicans than to Democrats, if Willard won the election.
    We know that he can't win it with votes.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Oct 25, 2012 5:30 AM GMT
    Webster666 said
    DontQuoteMe saidThe writing is on the wall. Prepare yourselves for the inevitable. You know it is coming. It's about as obvious as the nose on your faces. You can smell the F-E-A-R because the end of The Obama Era is N-E-A-R.



    As they taught us, when I was studying law, without evidence, you don't have a case.
    Where's your evidence to support your bloviating ?


    I'll have it a week from Tuesday (aka The Official End of The Obama Era)