Real Clear Politics Electoral College Map (no toss up states): Obama 290, Romney 248

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    Oct 30, 2012 3:32 PM GMT
    Real Clear Politics Electoral College Map (no toss up states): Obama 290, Romney 248

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
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    Oct 30, 2012 3:38 PM GMT
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  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Oct 30, 2012 3:42 PM GMT
    Given the "Frankenstorm" that is pounding the northeast, Given Willard Romney's campaign pledge to eliminate FEMA, Given Willard's long standing opposition to disaster relief, I suspect more than a few flood insurance deprived northeast voters might be questioning their voting choice.



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  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19129

    Oct 30, 2012 3:47 PM GMT
    rnch saidGiven the "Frankenstorm" that is pounding the northeast, Given Willard Romney's campaign pledge to eliminate FEMA, Given Willard's long standing opposition to disaster relief, I suspect more than a few flood insurance deprived northeast voters might be questioning their voting choice.



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    Yes, by all means, cling to any straw of hope you can. Obama can have the northeast (if he doesn't already) --- it's the midwest and south that will really matter.
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    Oct 30, 2012 3:50 PM GMT
    Link fixed.
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    Oct 30, 2012 3:51 PM GMT
    topathlete saidWhile they show the metric, it is as close to worthless as they come. Eliminating toss-ups means that a poll result that is well within the margin of error will be allocated to a candidate. That means a state that is virtually tied will be counted for a candidate the same as if the state were solidly for that candidate.

    What is more meaningful is Obama 201, Toss Ups 146, Romney 191.

    Nationally among likely voters, Gallup shows Romney at 51% versus Obama at 46%, a gain for Romney of 1 from yesterday based on a 7-day rolling average. We are seeing continual momentum in Romney's favor. Experts have said that national polling often leads state wide polls, so that may have additional relevance.


    Agreed about the Obama 201, Toss Ups 146, Romney 191 map (which had Romney leading last week BTW). Though at least the no toss ups map isn't reversed in Romney's favor. :-)
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19129

    Oct 30, 2012 3:57 PM GMT
    Interesting Electoral Map with Obama at 290 and Romney at 248. I think it will be more likely that Romney will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado which will bring the electoral map to


    Romney 295

    Obama 243
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    Oct 30, 2012 3:58 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ saidInteresting Electoral Map with Obama at 290 and Romney at 248. I think it will be more likely that Romney will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado which will bring the electoral map to


    Romney 295

    Obama 243


    And the source for your numbers? No map?

    I can do random numbers too:

    Obama: 3948329
    Romney: 0.03
  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Oct 30, 2012 3:59 PM GMT
    sfbayguy said
    CuriousJockAZ saidInteresting Electoral Map with Obama at 290 and Romney at 248. I think it will be more likely that Romney will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado which will bring the electoral map to


    Romney 295

    Obama 243


    And the source for your numbers?




    prolly from Fox Feaux News, the progaganda channel of the GOP?



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  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19129

    Oct 30, 2012 4:08 PM GMT
    rnch said
    sfbayguy said
    CuriousJockAZ saidInteresting Electoral Map with Obama at 290 and Romney at 248. I think it will be more likely that Romney will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado which will bring the electoral map to


    Romney 295

    Obama 243


    And the source for your numbers?




    prolly from Fox Feaux News, the progaganda channel of the GOP?



    icon_lol.gif



    Nope, sorry, I am perfectly capable of doing the math myself icon_wink.gif It should be noted that Romney would only really need to win two of the three I mentioned, and he may also squeak out Virginia and/or Pennsylvania. And the countdown continues...

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    Oct 30, 2012 4:10 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ said
    rnch said
    sfbayguy said
    CuriousJockAZ saidInteresting Electoral Map with Obama at 290 and Romney at 248. I think it will be more likely that Romney will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado which will bring the electoral map to


    Romney 295

    Obama 243


    And the source for your numbers?




    prolly from Fox Feaux News, the progaganda channel of the GOP?



    icon_lol.gif



    Nope, sorry, I am perfectly capable of doing the math myself icon_wink.gif It should be noted that Romney would only really need to win two of the three I mentioned, and he may also squeak out Virginia and/or Pennsylvania. And the countdown continues...


    Two of what three you mentioned? There is still no source for your numbers.
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19129

    Oct 30, 2012 4:12 PM GMT
    sfbayguy said
    Two of what three you mentioned? There is still no source for your numbers.



    CuriousJockAZ saidInteresting Electoral Map with Obama at 290 and Romney at 248. I think it will be more likely that Romney will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado


    My source is the link in the OP that you provided. That map gave Ohio, WI, and CO to Obama. I think Romney will win 2 if not all 3 of those...and maybe a few others (NH, Virginia, maybe even PA)
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    Oct 30, 2012 4:13 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ saidInteresting Electoral Map with Obama at 290 and Romney at 248. I think it will be more likely that Romney will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado which will bring the electoral map to


    Romney 295

    Obama 243


    I thought just a few short weeks ago when Obama was winning all the polls you said polling does not matter? You also said that declaring a winner before the election was over was not smart?

    Yet here we are with you holding the polls as gospel and declaring Romney the winner with a countdown clock and all? icon_rolleyes.gif
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19129

    Oct 30, 2012 4:16 PM GMT
    David4985 said

    Yet here we are with you holding the polls as gospel and declaring Romney the winner with a countdown clock and all? icon_rolleyes.gif



    Make no mistake about it....I DO NOT BELIEVE ANY POLLS....I don't know how many times I have repeated that here.
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    Oct 30, 2012 4:20 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ said
    sfbayguy said
    Two of what three you mentioned? There is still no source for your numbers.



    CuriousJockAZ saidInteresting Electoral Map with Obama at 290 and Romney at 248. I think it will be more likely that Romney will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado


    My source is the link in the OP that you provided. That map gave Ohio, WI, and CO to Obama. I think Romney will win 2 if not all 3 of those...and maybe a few others (NH, Virginia, maybe even PA)


    Ah, understood. So you disagree with the no toss ups map. Fair enough.
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19129

    Oct 30, 2012 4:23 PM GMT
    sfbayguy said
    Ah, understood. So you disagree with the no toss ups map. Fair enough.



    Yes. I actually suspect that all these Electoral Maps based on this poll or that poll will look pretty silly come Election Night, rendering the validity of Polls more useless than ever. I think that will hold true regardless of who energes the winner.
  • roadbikeRob

    Posts: 14342

    Oct 30, 2012 4:29 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ said
    rnch said
    sfbayguy said
    CuriousJockAZ saidInteresting Electoral Map with Obama at 290 and Romney at 248. I think it will be more likely that Romney will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado which will bring the electoral map to


    Romney 295

    Obama 243


    And the source for your numbers?




    prolly from Fox Feaux News, the progaganda channel of the GOP?



    icon_lol.gif



    Nope, sorry, I am perfectly capable of doing the math myself icon_wink.gif It should be noted that Romney would only really need to win two of the three I mentioned, and he may also squeak out Virginia and/or Pennsylvania. And the countdown continues...

    Would you please stop including Pennsylvania in your Romney victory scenario. Pennsylvania is safely in the hands of Obama, it is a blue, democratic state. It is not going to Romney, period.
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19129

    Oct 30, 2012 4:31 PM GMT
    roadbikeRob saidWould you please stop including Pennsylvania in your Romney victory scenario. Pennsylvania is safely in the hands of Obama, it is a blue, democratic state. It is not going to Romney, period.


    Well, alrighty then...If it will make you feel better let's give PA solidly in the Obama column. I don't think PA is going to make or break the Romney victory.
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    Oct 30, 2012 4:53 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ said
    sfbayguy said
    Ah, understood. So you disagree with the no toss ups map. Fair enough.


    Yes. I actually suspect that all these Electoral Maps based on this poll or that poll will look pretty silly come Election Night, rendering the validity of Polls more useless than ever. I think that will hold true regardless of who energes the winner.


    An example of how polls can be lacking in accuracy:

    Rasmussen admits that their own polling methodology is to robocall and to only call land lines. So people who don't answer phone numbers they don't recognize, hang up on robots (because it's annoying and might be construed to be an illegal telemarketing robocall), and/or don't use or answer land line phones aren't included in the polling except via a some sort of online survey tool. And we all know the likely age demographic of most of those people who are missed in Rasmussen's sample: younger, more liberal voters. Maybe the polling companies can figure out how to do polls via text. :-)
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology

    That said, I'm sure we can find problems with all polls, not just Rasmussen.
  • jock_1

    Posts: 1491

    Oct 30, 2012 6:31 PM GMT
    sfbayguy said
    CuriousJockAZ saidInteresting Electoral Map with Obama at 290 and Romney at 248. I think it will be more likely that Romney will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado which will bring the electoral map to


    Romney 295

    Obama 243


    And the source for your numbers? No map?

    I can do random numbers too:

    Obama: 3948329
    Romney: 0.03


    I'll be your source for Wisconsin because I live here. Romney will win Wisconsin. Said it over a year ago even before Ryan was announced VP choice.
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19129

    Oct 30, 2012 6:49 PM GMT
    jock_1 saidI'll be your source for Wisconsin because I live here. Romney will win Wisconsin. Said it over a year ago even before Ryan was announced VP choice.




    Jock_1, be gentle. They are having a hard time coming to terms with the reality that the clock is ticking and we are in the final week of the...


  • roadbikeRob

    Posts: 14342

    Oct 30, 2012 6:52 PM GMT
    jock_1 said
    sfbayguy said
    CuriousJockAZ saidInteresting Electoral Map with Obama at 290 and Romney at 248. I think it will be more likely that Romney will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado which will bring the electoral map to


    Romney 295

    Obama 243


    And the source for your numbers? No map?

    I can do random numbers too:

    Obama: 3948329
    Romney: 0.03


    I'll be your source for Wisconsin because I live here. Romney will win Wisconsin. Said it over a year ago even before Ryan was announced VP choice.
    You just keep living in your fantasyland and keep bashing democrats for all your hometown's urban problems.
  • Webster666

    Posts: 9217

    Oct 30, 2012 7:07 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ said
    rnch said
    sfbayguy said
    CuriousJockAZ saidInteresting Electoral Map with Obama at 290 and Romney at 248. I think it will be more likely that Romney will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado which will bring the electoral map to


    Romney 295

    Obama 243


    And the source for your numbers?




    prolly from Fox Feaux News, the progaganda channel of the GOP?



    icon_lol.gif



    Nope, sorry, I am perfectly capable of doing the math myself icon_wink.gif It should be noted that Romney would only really need to win two of the three I mentioned, and he may also squeak out Virginia and/or Pennsylvania. And the countdown continues...





    Romney only needs to win 2 of the 3 you mentioned ?
    LOL.
    That's like saying that Romney only needs to win NEW YORK and CALIFORNIA !
    LOL.
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    Oct 30, 2012 7:09 PM GMT
    jock_1 said
    sfbayguy said
    CuriousJockAZ saidInteresting Electoral Map with Obama at 290 and Romney at 248. I think it will be more likely that Romney will win Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado which will bring the electoral map to


    Romney 295

    Obama 243


    And the source for your numbers? No map?

    I can do random numbers too:

    Obama: 3948329
    Romney: 0.03


    I'll be your source for Wisconsin because I live here. Romney will win Wisconsin. Said it over a year ago even before Ryan was announced VP choice.


    If there's anything more inaccurate than polls, it's anecdote. But thanks for trying.

    BTW, I think it's funny to watch Republican governors of states like Ohio and Wisconsin on TV walk tightropes saying Obama is destroying the economy, meanwhile their economies are doing much better and they are taking credit for it (of course) as if Ohio and Wisconsin are somehow isolated from what is going on nationally.