10/31 new Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT poll - Obama leads Romney in Ohio, Virginia, Florida

  • TroyAthlete

    Posts: 4269

    Oct 31, 2012 3:31 PM GMT
    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57542715/poll-obama-holds-small-ohio-edge-fla-va-tight

    Lights Out:In Florida and Ohio, the president leads among those who have already cast their ballots, with a significant lead in Ohio, 60 to 34 percent. In Florida, Mr. Obama is up 50 to 44 percent. Among those who have yet to cast their vote, the two candidates are even in these states. Just a small percentage of voters in Virginia have already voted.


    There are few voters left in these swing states who haven't made up their minds. Now, at least 95 percent of likely voters - including both Obama and Romney voters - have decided who they will support.


    Most supporters from both camps say they strongly favor their candidate, though Mr. Obama's are slightly more likely to say they strongly favor him. But Romney has been improving on this measure - especially in Florida, from 57 percent a month ago to 74 percent today - nearly even with the president.


  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 31, 2012 3:50 PM GMT
    Individual polls are useless. Don't pay attention to them!
  • coolarmydude

    Posts: 9190

    Oct 31, 2012 4:28 PM GMT
    topathlete saidhttp://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx

    Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead

    Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.

    Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 46% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.



    It's the Electoral Vote, stupid.

    It's possible that Obama could lose the popular vote, yet win the electoral vote handily. The national survey tends the popular vote. Individual swing state polls tend the electoral vote. That is why state polling matters!

    I always dismiss national polls in presidential elections.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 31, 2012 4:30 PM GMT
    coolarmydude said
    topathlete saidhttp://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx

    Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead

    Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.

    Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 46% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.



    It's the Electoral Vote, stupid.

    It's possible that Obama could lose the popular vote, yet win the electoral vote handily. The national survey tends the popular vote. Individual swing state polls tend the electoral vote. That is why state polling matters!

    I always dismiss national polls in presidential elections.


    We all do, after Bush II "stole" the election from Al Gore. icon_wink.gif
  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Oct 31, 2012 4:38 PM GMT
    The ultimate poll will be next week.
  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Oct 31, 2012 4:55 PM GMT
    Polls are Network News Numerical masterbation.



    icon_lol.gif
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19129

    Oct 31, 2012 5:00 PM GMT
    TigerTim saidIndividual polls are useless. Don't pay attention to them!



    ^^^ This ^^^ The vote next Tuesday is the only one that counts. I suspect the result will show just how ridiculously inaccurate all these polls really are.
  • TroyAthlete

    Posts: 4269

    Oct 31, 2012 7:40 PM GMT
    topathlete saidhttp://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx

    Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead

    Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.


    I hope Romney has fun with those early voters in Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi. Meanwhile in the states that are going to decide the election...

    Florida:
    Democratic 391,238
    Republican 290,368
    http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/record-turnouts-early-voting-lift-obama-campaigns-hopes-florida
    http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/with-22m-floridians-having-voted-a-quarter-of-electorate-dems-lead-reps-by-more-than-31000-ballots.html

    North Carolina:
    Democratic 1,012,531
    Republican 875,672
    http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/4716/day13chart.jpg

    Iowa:
    Democratic 232,462
    Republican 171,272
    http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/18/politics/early-voting-status-check/index.html
    http://www.christianpost.com/news/democrats-early-voting-edge-shows-promise-but-not-victory-84155/
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/31/1153013/-Iowa-Early-Voting-Update-10-31-12

    Nevada:
    Democratic 214,544
    Republican 162,422
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/31/1152934/-Nevada-Early-Voting-Update-10-30-12-part-deux
    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/30/early-voting-democrats-up-in-nevada-gop-up-in-colorado/

    Polls have also shown Obama with a huge early voting advantage in Ohio:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-29/democrats-hold-early-voting-advantage-over-republicans.htmlA Time magazine poll of likely Ohio voters last week showed Obama with a 2-to-1 lead, 60 percent to 30 percent, among those who have already voted.


    Tick, tock, tick, tock...
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19129

    Oct 31, 2012 7:56 PM GMT
    Troy, you can't tick-tock without the clock. C'mon, get with it icon_wink.gif



  • TroyAthlete

    Posts: 4269

    Oct 31, 2012 8:32 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ saidTroy, you can't tick-tock without the clock. C'mon, get with it icon_wink.gif





    That clock is all wrong. No heads will explode. Republicans are just going to slither back into their holes -- taking Rasmussen, Gravis Marketing, WeAskAmerica, Dick Morris, RealClearPolitics, Hot Air, Michelle Malkin, Chuck Todd, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Gallup, The Daily Caller, Wolf Blitzer, The National Review, and all of Southbeach/Firebrand's sock accounts along with them.

    The best thing about Obama getting to 270+ will be all the bloviating, anti-science, anti-facts, anti-gay, right-wing fantasy-peddlers being made irrelevant once and for all.

    Forward!
  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19129

    Oct 31, 2012 8:54 PM GMT
    TroyAthlete said



    I agree with you 100% Troy. Heads WILL explode icon_wink.gif
  • DalTX

    Posts: 612

    Oct 31, 2012 9:26 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ said
    TroyAthlete said



    I agree with you 100% Troy. Heads WILL explode icon_wink.gif


    They will! Yours, "jock"1 and all the different versions of SouthBeach
    and SaggyTittness.
  • coolarmydude

    Posts: 9190

    Oct 31, 2012 10:53 PM GMT
    topathlete said
    Before calling anyone stupid, you should look at past polls where national polls often lead state polls, so they are not irrelevant. You should also consider that the odds of winning the ec and being behind a few points in the popular vote is not all that great. You should also realize that major polling organizations provide both state and national polls, and all have their place. If you want to see what stupid really looks like, check out the nearest mirror.


    First of all, the "stupid" comment wasn't about you. It was a spin off Clinton's campaign phrase, "It's the economy, stupid." icon_rolleyes.gif

    Secondly, what affects one state, like Alabama, isn't the same as what affects another, like Ohio. Besides, the most safe states for a candidate's individual popular vote totals could "spill over" to other states where the race is closer, giving the impression that the swing state isn't as close as it really is. That is the false impression national polls give. Consider the following hypothetical:

    Alabama (9 electoral votes): 80 votes Romney; 20 votes Obama
    Ohio (18 electoral votes): 47 votes Romney; 53 votes Obama

    The total popular vote count is 127 votes Romney (63.5%); 73 votes Obama (36.5%).
    The total electoral vote count is 9 votes Romney; 18 votes Obama.

    Obama wins.

    Now, if this example doesn't make it clear to you the significant/insignificant factors of various polling samples, then you fit the shoe.
  • TroyAthlete

    Posts: 4269

    Nov 07, 2012 4:16 PM GMT
    CuriousJockAZ said
    TigerTim saidIndividual polls are useless. Don't pay attention to them!



    ^^^ This ^^^ The vote next Tuesday is the only one that counts. I suspect the result will show just how ridiculously inaccurate all these polls really are.


    No, they just showed how ridiculously inaccurate Republicans are in 2012.