Oil report suggests an earthquake in global politics (with US predicted to be top energy producer by 2020)

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    Nov 14, 2012 2:14 AM GMT
    The US is becoming an energy superpower in spite of the Obama Administration. After the election, it has already moved to make energy development more difficult and costly. The industry is bracing itself:
    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Fracking-to-be-Gutted-in-Obamas-2nd-Term.html

    http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/11/13/kelly-mcparland-oil-report-suggests-an-earthquake-in-global-politics/

    It’s obviously a big question, but it’s the one you’re left with from the conclusions of a report released Monday by the International Energy Agency. The central finding is that, by 2020, the U.S. will lose its dependence on Saudi Arabian oil and become self-sufficient in energy. Within another 15 years North America will become a net exporter of oil, and 90% of Middle East exports will begin flowing to China, India and fast-growing Asian economies. Chief among rising Middle East energy exporters will be Iraq, which the IEA sees accounting for 45% of the growth in global oil production after 2020, overtaking Russia to become the second-largest global oil exporter.

    It would be a breathtaking re-making of the international power structure, and only eight years into the future, according to the agency. Whoever replaces Barack Obama as the next president could preside over the biggest change in political dynamics since the U.S. emergence as a superpower. The forecast could also be totally wrong – sweeping visions of future developments often are. But the agency is not alone in supposing profound results will follow from the rapid changes that have overtaken U.S. energy reserves with the development of technologies that give access to previously locked-in supplies of oil and natural gas. Rice University’s Baker Institute reports that U.S. import terminals for liquified natural gas are already barely used and adds that “developments in Canada, Brazil and the Americas more generally have tilted the center of gravity in energy markets toward the Western Hemisphere” for the first time in decades.

    The obvious first reaction would be an immense wave of relief. No more dependence on the Middle East? Great. No more wars over oil; no more catering to unstable autocracies run by corrupt sheiks with their army of princes and princelings. No more need to wonder what happens if some insurgent group of religious fanatics gains control over vital shipping lanes and shuts off the energy flow. No more oil wells blazing in the desert because one murderous dictator or another doesn’t want to give up his job.
  • coolarmydude

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    Nov 14, 2012 2:17 AM GMT
    in spite of the Obama Administration.

    DENIAL
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    Nov 14, 2012 2:21 AM GMT
    coolarmydude said in spite of the Obama Administration.

    DENIAL


    OK if you believe that then how has the Obama Administration facilitated this revolution in energy production? Do please reference the recent regulatory changes to federal land for fracking.
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    Nov 14, 2012 2:29 AM GMT
    riddler78 said
    coolarmydude said in spite of the Obama Administration.

    DENIAL


    OK if you believe that then how has the Obama Administration facilitated this revolution in energy production? Do please reference the recent regulatory changes to federal land for fracking.


    Perhaps by allowing drilling in every single corner of the country?

    This is why conservatives were surprised by the shellacking on Election Day. You don't want to deal in facts, just talking points. icon_lol.gif
  • coolarmydude

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    Nov 14, 2012 2:34 AM GMT
    http://www.doi.gov/news/pressreleases/loader.cfm?csModule=security/getfile&pageid=293916

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/05/us/new-fracking-rule-is-issued-by-obama-administration.html
  • coolarmydude

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    Nov 14, 2012 2:40 AM GMT
    http://www.frackinginsider.com/legislative/white-house-executive-order-supporting-development-of-unconventional-natural-resources/

    White House Executive Order Supporting Development of Unconventional Natural Resources

    Today the President issued an Executive Order establishing an inter-agency working group to “facilitate coordinated Administration policy efforts to support safe and responsible unconventional domestic natural gas development.” This is a welcomed respite from a series of otherwise misguided federal efforts to over-regulate hydrologic fracturing. By coordinating under the direction of the White House Domestic Policy Council the efforts of 13 federal agencies seeking to study, review or regulate unconventional gas development, and fracking in particular, the White House appears to be backing up the President’s promise in his State of the Union speech to support domestic energy production and particularly development of unconventional natural gas resources.
  • coolarmydude

    Posts: 9190

    Nov 14, 2012 2:43 AM GMT
    A Big Mea Culpa is in order.
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    Nov 14, 2012 2:50 AM GMT
    Christian73 said
    riddler78 said
    coolarmydude said in spite of the Obama Administration.

    DENIAL


    OK if you believe that then how has the Obama Administration facilitated this revolution in energy production? Do please reference the recent regulatory changes to federal land for fracking.


    Perhaps by allowing drilling in every single corner of the country?

    This is why conservatives were surprised by the shellacking on Election Day. You don't want to deal in facts, just talking points. icon_lol.gif


    As has been pointed out: "As a matter of fact, oil production is down 14 percent this year on federal land, and gas production was down 9 percent" - and there have been more limitations placed since the election.

    You seem to think that elections bend reality or change facts. Sadly for you, and the US it doesn't. Shellacking? The margins on the votes were pretty small. Considerably smaller than what many like you thought it'd be and certainly without a mandate as many on "your side" have pointed out.
  • coolarmydude

    Posts: 9190

    Nov 14, 2012 2:50 AM GMT
    And this is from just a few hours ago on Fox Business.

    http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1966639455001/future-fracking-under-obamas-second-term


    MEA CULPA!!!
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    Nov 14, 2012 2:52 AM GMT
    coolarmydude saidA Big Mea Culpa is in order.


    Hardly given the limitations now placed on shale gas on federal land. We'll see if new regulations kill the golden goose however - and you and I both know there are many here who are hoping that's the case despite the fact the US is poised to be energy independent, change the political landscape in the middle east permanently without a new intervention and help pay for the fiscal mess with new energy revenues...
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    Nov 14, 2012 2:56 AM GMT
    • U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020 (Bloomberg)
    see also
    U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says (NYT)

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-12/u-s-to-overtake-saudi-arabia-s-oil-production-by-2020-iea-says.html

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/13/business/energy-environment/report-sees-us-as-top-oil-producer-in-5-years.html?ref=business


    READ UP, riddler.......and get back with us.
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    Nov 14, 2012 2:57 AM GMT

    @ Riddler:

    Haha you big fat ( and impressively clever) liar; you got caught. icon_lol.gif
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    Nov 14, 2012 3:00 AM GMT
    JockTheVote said• U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020 (Bloomberg)
    see also
    U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says (NYT)

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-12/u-s-to-overtake-saudi-arabia-s-oil-production-by-2020-iea-says.html

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/13/business/energy-environment/report-sees-us-as-top-oil-producer-in-5-years.html?ref=business


    READ UP, riddler.......and get back with us.


    Um - did you read my original link? Your links support that view. The only thing that can kill the golden egg here is regulation. And that's coming - and the Obama Administration has said it's coming. Now you're up to date.
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    Nov 14, 2012 3:00 AM GMT
    meninlove said

    Haha you big fat ( and impressively clever) liar; you got caught. icon_lol.gif


    Yes he did. And unfortunately you apparently still can't read icon_lol.gif
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    Nov 14, 2012 3:02 AM GMT
    riddler78 said
    meninlove said

    Haha you big fat ( and impressively clever) liar; you got caught. icon_lol.gif


    Yes he did. And unfortunately you apparently still can't read icon_lol.gif


    Comprehension problems, Riddler? Here, I'll go back and add a little clarity to my post which will make your quote look like you edited my post.

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    Nov 14, 2012 3:06 AM GMT
    meninlove said
    riddler78 said
    meninlove said

    Haha you big fat ( and impressively clever) liar; you got caught. icon_lol.gif


    Yes he did. And unfortunately you apparently still can't read icon_lol.gif


    Comprehension problems, Riddler? Here, I'll go back and add a little clarity to my post which will make your quote look like you edited my post.



    Heh - right. Once again showing you're both disingenuous and a moron. icon_lol.gif
  • coolarmydude

    Posts: 9190

    Nov 14, 2012 3:08 AM GMT
    Stewart: You can't do it because of the regulations imposed by the Obama administration.

    Robert Bryce (Manhattan Institute): Well, earlier this year, uh, Stewart, the Obama Administration and the Interior Dept., to be more specific, did issue a proposed rule that would require disclosure of the chemicals used in hydraulic fracturing when drilling is done on public lands, but my bottom line here is it's clear that the EPA and the Interior Dept. may impose some more regulations on drilling both nationally and on federal lands and so on, but it cannot and will not stop all the momentum that's happening in the upstream oil and gas sector, it's just too big.

    Stewart: I wasn't expecting you to say this, but you're basically saying, 'yeah, fracking is here, it stays and it expands and will be the method by which America overtakes Saudi Arabia in oil production in the year 2020. It's gonna happen, sir.'

    Watch the video, Riddler!

    And BTW, this new American energy dominance should make Canadians worried, considering that 80% of our oil imports is from Canada.
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    Nov 14, 2012 3:09 AM GMT
    riddler78 said
    As has been pointed out: "As a matter of fact, oil production is down 14 percent this year on federal land, and gas production was down 9 percent" - and there have been more limitations placed since the election.


    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/oct/16/mitt-romney/mitt-romney-says-oil-production-down-14-percent-ye/
    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/oct/16/mitt-romney/mitt-romney-says-oil-production-down-14-percent-ye/So: Did the United States produce 14 percent less oil on its public lands last year? Yes.

    But there’s nuance in the number. Production under Obama was hobbled due to the Deepwater Horizon disaster, making a one-year figure subject to cherry-picking. And it’s not at all clear that the president in charge when the oil is taken out of the ground deserves full credit or blame; years of prior policies on exploration and drilling had an impact.

    On balance, we rate the claim Half True.


    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/FactCheck_Obamas_drilling_denials_energy_fracking_deepwater_horizon.htmlNatural gas production on federal lands and in federal waters has fallen 9 percent overall under Obama (see table 3). We again compared the last three full fiscal years of Bush’s term with the next three years.

    (The decrease is 12 percent when we exclude fiscal year 2009 and compare fiscal years 2007 and 2008 with 2010 and 2011.)

    But natural gas production on federal lands and in federal waters has been falling since 2003. Sieminski credited the decline with the boom in the method of extracting gas from shale formations, known as hydraulic fracturing or “fracking,” which occurs mostly on private and state-owned lands.

    Fracking has driven down the price of natural gas. And as a result, Sieminski explained, drilling on federal lands and in federal waters has become a less attractive method for producing natural gas.
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    Nov 14, 2012 3:10 AM GMT
    " And that's coming - and the Obama Administration has said it's coming. Now you're up to date. "


    riddler, ONLY BECAUSE

    every minute of your time I can occupy here

    is a minute you're NOT

    OFF-SHORING AMERICAN JOBS

    I'll ask you to explain your above assertion.

    So go at it......

    AND TAKE ALL THE TIME YOU NEED.
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    Nov 14, 2012 3:11 AM GMT
    coolarmydude saidStewart: You can't do it because of the regulations imposed by the Obama administration.

    Robert Bryce (Manhattan Institute): Well, earlier this year, uh, Stewart, the Obama Administration and the Interior Dept., to be more specific, did issue a proposed rule that would require disclosure of the chemicals used in hydraulic fracturing when drilling is done on public lands, but my bottom line here is it's clear that the EPA and the Interior Dept. may impose some more regulations on drilling both nationally and on federal lands and so on, but it cannot and will not stop all the momentum that's happening in the upstream oil and gas sector, it's just too big.

    Stewart: I wasn't expecting you to say this, but you're basically saying, 'yeah, fracking is here, it stays and it expands and will be the method by which America overtakes Saudi Arabia in oil production in the year 2020. It's gonna happen, sir.'

    Watch the video, Riddler!

    And BTW, this new American energy dominance should make Canadians worried, considering that 80% of our oil imports is from Canada.


    Canadians may actually have a lot more oil - so this is a good thing all around because it means both the US and Canada will just be exporting the stuff hand over fist (commodites like money is fungible - so no, Canadians shouldn't be worried). Like I pointed out in the original post, it currently looks like it will happen but the only thing that could kill it is regulation.

    There are many here at RJ who are entirely against the revolution happening in natural gas - as you can see from the posts by Scuffypup or whatever his name is whenever I post innovations that are happening in the industry under Science & Technology. The Obama Administration has also been clamping down on the industry as a whole over its four years using Deepwater as an excuse. That said, the good thing is that technology has meant that cheaper technology is now on-shore.
  • coolarmydude

    Posts: 9190

    Nov 14, 2012 3:14 AM GMT
    riddler78 said
    Canadians may actually have a lot more oil - so this is a good thing all around because it means both the US and Canada will just be exporting the stuff hand over fist. Like I pointed out in the original post, it currently looks like it will happen but the only thing that could kill it is regulation.

    There are many here at RJ who are entirely against the revolution happening in natural gas - as you can see from the posts by Scuffypup or whatever his name is whenever I post innovations that are happening in the industry under Science & Technology. The Obama Administration has also been clamping down on the industry as a whole over its four years using Deepwater as an excuse. That said, the good thing is that technology has meant that cheaper technology is now on-shore.


    You still deny the accommodations Obama has made with the industry. And as Robert Bryce said, the expected regulations will be modest and will not and cannot stop the natural gas/fracking momentum. Obama is not impeding.
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    Nov 14, 2012 3:16 AM GMT
    q1w2e3 said
    riddler78 said
    As has been pointed out: "As a matter of fact, oil production is down 14 percent this year on federal land, and gas production was down 9 percent" - and there have been more limitations placed since the election.


    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/oct/16/mitt-romney/mitt-romney-says-oil-production-down-14-percent-ye/
    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/oct/16/mitt-romney/mitt-romney-says-oil-production-down-14-percent-ye/So: Did the United States produce 14 percent less oil on its public lands last year? Yes.

    But there’s nuance in the number. Production under Obama was hobbled due to the Deepwater Horizon disaster, making a one-year figure subject to cherry-picking. And it’s not at all clear that the president in charge when the oil is taken out of the ground deserves full credit or blame; years of prior policies on exploration and drilling had an impact.

    On balance, we rate the claim Half True.


    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/FactCheck_Obamas_drilling_denials_energy_fracking_deepwater_horizon.htmlNatural gas production on federal lands and in federal waters has fallen 9 percent overall under Obama (see table 3). We again compared the last three full fiscal years of Bush’s term with the next three years.

    (The decrease is 12 percent when we exclude fiscal year 2009 and compare fiscal years 2007 and 2008 with 2010 and 2011.)

    But natural gas production on federal lands and in federal waters has been falling since 2003. Sieminski credited the decline with the boom in the method of extracting gas from shale formations, known as hydraulic fracturing or “fracking,” which occurs mostly on private and state-owned lands.

    Fracking has driven down the price of natural gas. And as a result, Sieminski explained, drilling on federal lands and in federal waters has become a less attractive method for producing natural gas.


    And this is why much of the "fact checking" was more about journalists employing opinions against the Romney campaign. First on the issue of Deepwater - the permits for additional drilling took far longer than even the American government's scientists recommended. So no, it's not half true it's only half true if you're in the tank trying to defend the Obama Administration. Secondly, fracking does occur on private and state owned lands more because it hasn't been permitted on federal land as the change in technology occurred. So this is hardly an excuse for the fact the decrease has happened or a mitigating circumstance.
  • coolarmydude

    Posts: 9190

    Nov 14, 2012 3:17 AM GMT
    WATCH THE DAMN VIDEO, RIDDLER!
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    Nov 14, 2012 3:21 AM GMT
    coolarmydude said
    riddler78 said
    Canadians may actually have a lot more oil - so this is a good thing all around because it means both the US and Canada will just be exporting the stuff hand over fist. Like I pointed out in the original post, it currently looks like it will happen but the only thing that could kill it is regulation.

    There are many here at RJ who are entirely against the revolution happening in natural gas - as you can see from the posts by Scuffypup or whatever his name is whenever I post innovations that are happening in the industry under Science & Technology. The Obama Administration has also been clamping down on the industry as a whole over its four years using Deepwater as an excuse. That said, the good thing is that technology has meant that cheaper technology is now on-shore.


    You still deny the accommodations Obama has made with the industry. And as Robert Bryce said, the expected regulations will be modest and will not and cannot stop the natural gas/fracking momentum. Obama is not impeding.


    I hope you're right - but to date, the Obama Administration certainly hasn't encouraged the development and has been slow to react to the energy revolution - which is why there has been such a fall in drilling on federal lands. As for future regulations, we'll see. I hope I'm wrong that it will be impeded because the benefits to both the environment (natural gas is far cleaner burning than oil or coal), and the US given the fiscal mess.
  • coolarmydude

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    Nov 14, 2012 3:25 AM GMT
    riddler78 said
    I hope you're right - but to date, the Obama Administration certainly hasn't encouraged the development and has been slow to react to the energy revolution - which is why there has been such a fall in drilling on federal lands. As for future regulations, we'll see. I hope I'm wrong that it will be impeded because the benefits to both the environment (natural gas is far cleaner burning than oil or coal), and the US given the fiscal mess.


    Well since you brought up environmental considerations, has the thought ever occurred to you that the impacts from fracking before the new technologies were developed had an unacceptable level of environmental cost? If the federal government had not been stern on enforcing environmental considerations in the fracking process, do you actually think that the technological improvements that significantly reduce the environmental impacts would have happened on their own?


    And BTW, the federal government wasn't the level that was enforcing environmental regulations. It was left to the state levels with varying degrees of tolerance. That was problematic for everyone involved.