How cheap energy from shale will reshape America's role in the world

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    Nov 16, 2012 11:27 PM GMT
    Now for the political ramifications of shale... This couldn't happen fast enough...

    "US self-sufficiency in energy is likely to end American reliance on despotic Gulf regimes but biggest loser of all may be Russia"
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/15/shale-energy-implications-geopolitics-america

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    Nov 19, 2012 6:49 PM GMT
    Pretty stunning when you see the graphs:

    http://www.volokh.com/2012/11/16/increasing-oil-and-gas-reserves/

    567x361xProvedReserves2010.png.pagespeed
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    Nov 19, 2012 8:18 PM GMT
    You think we bombed countries before. Just wait until we don't need you mother fuckers!

    But seriously, we went thru this whole crap back in the 70s.
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    Nov 19, 2012 8:41 PM GMT
    Can't wait till we go to war for non polluted water.
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    Nov 19, 2012 9:34 PM GMT
    Up to a few years ago, the UK was a net oil producer, yet we still relied on 'despotic Gulf regimes'. If we weren't kissing their asses for their oil, we were certainly kissing their asses for their money.

    You also have to remember that a barrel of shale oil costs 10 times as much to produce as a barrel of oil from a Middle Eastern oil well. OPEC are a canny bunch and one could easily see them ramping up production for several years to make shale oil production economically unviable. If the oil price drops below $60 per barrel, shale oil production becomes a loss-maker. In that event, would the cash-strapped US Government be prepared to subsidise shale oil production for years?
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    Nov 19, 2012 9:44 PM GMT
    Ex_Mil8 saidUp to a few years ago, the UK was a net oil producer, yet we still relied on 'despotic Gulf regimes'. If we weren't kissing their asses for their oil, we were certainly kissing their asses for their money.

    You also have to remember that a barrel of shale oil costs 10 times as much to produce as a barrel of oil from a Middle Eastern oil well. OPEC are a canny bunch and one could easily see them ramping up production for several years to make shale oil production economically unviable. If the oil price drops below $60 per barrel, shale oil production becomes a loss-maker. In that event, would the cash-strapped US Government be prepared to subsidise shale oil production for years?

    No, we move the 5th Fleet out from between them and Iran for a few days.
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    Nov 19, 2012 10:05 PM GMT
    Caslon22000 said
    Ex_Mil8 saidUp to a few years ago, the UK was a net oil producer, yet we still relied on 'despotic Gulf regimes'. If we weren't kissing their asses for their oil, we were certainly kissing their asses for their money.

    You also have to remember that a barrel of shale oil costs 10 times as much to produce as a barrel of oil from a Middle Eastern oil well. OPEC are a canny bunch and one could easily see them ramping up production for several years to make shale oil production economically unviable. If the oil price drops below $60 per barrel, shale oil production becomes a loss-maker. In that event, would the cash-strapped US Government be prepared to subsidise shale oil production for years?

    No, we move the 5th Fleet out from between them and Iran for a few days.


    Wouldn't the withdrawal of the 5th Fleet be one of the long-term aims and benefits of US energy self-sufficiency anyway? If the Gulf oil producing states were playing the long game, they might decide temporary withdrawal of the 5th Fleet was a gamble worth taking.

    The current regime in Iran (also an OPEC member) is not going to be around for ever. I'll give it 10 years, tops.
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    Nov 19, 2012 10:13 PM GMT
    Ex_Mil8 said
    Caslon22000 said
    Ex_Mil8 saidUp to a few years ago, the UK was a net oil producer, yet we still relied on 'despotic Gulf regimes'. If we weren't kissing their asses for their oil, we were certainly kissing their asses for their money.

    You also have to remember that a barrel of shale oil costs 10 times as much to produce as a barrel of oil from a Middle Eastern oil well. OPEC are a canny bunch and one could easily see them ramping up production for several years to make shale oil production economically unviable. If the oil price drops below $60 per barrel, shale oil production becomes a loss-maker. In that event, would the cash-strapped US Government be prepared to subsidise shale oil production for years?

    No, we move the 5th Fleet out from between them and Iran for a few days.


    Wouldn't the withdrawal of the 5th Fleet be one of the long-term aims and benefits of US energy self-sufficiency anyway? If the Gulf oil producing states were playing the long game, they might decide temporary withdrawal of the 5th Fleet was a gamble worth taking.

    The current regime in Iran (also an OPEC member) is not going to be around for ever. I'll give it 10 years, tops.

    I was just speaking metaphorically. They require our support to keep on power.