Catalonian secession grows more plausible. That's bad news for the Spanish government.

  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Dec 23, 2012 8:42 PM GMT
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/12/19/homage-to-catalonia.html
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Dec 23, 2012 10:56 PM GMT
    They may have been richest in past but right now they are broke as the rest of Spain. If they leave they won't be in EU and also all that richness will fade away with the maintenance for everything that Madrid provides them.
    Unless they want to be added to the list of another country which needs to be bailed out its better they stay inside Spain and face what the rest of the Spain is facing la crisis.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Dec 23, 2012 11:14 PM GMT
    Cataluña was faring better than most of the country for a good while but definitely not anymore. Unemployment in the region has reached close to the national average hovering around 25%. The crisis has already begun to take its toll there.

    Basque Country and Navarra have hung in there and emerged as the bright spots of the country. Neither autonomous community has broken 20% in unemployment yet.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Dec 23, 2012 11:16 PM GMT
    Shagglot saidThey may have been richest in past but right now they are broke as the rest of Spain. If they leave they won't be in EU and also all that richness will fade away with the maintenance for everything that Madrid provides them.
    Unless they want to be added to the list of another country which needs to be bailed out its better they stay inside Spain and face what the rest of the Spain is facing la crisis.


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-22/catalonia-spain-s-richest-region-aims-to-beat-deficit-target.html
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Dec 23, 2012 11:18 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    Shagglot saidThey may have been richest in past but right now they are broke as the rest of Spain. If they leave they won't be in EU and also all that richness will fade away with the maintenance for everything that Madrid provides them.
    Unless they want to be added to the list of another country which needs to be bailed out its better they stay inside Spain and face what the rest of the Spain is facing la crisis.


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-22/catalonia-spain-s-richest-region-aims-to-beat-deficit-target.html


    That's over a year old. It's worsened since then.

    http://www.catalannewsagency.com/news/politics/unemployment-catalonia-increased-13849-people-october-reaching-historical-record
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Dec 23, 2012 11:34 PM GMT
    nicodegallo said
    riddler78 said
    Shagglot saidThey may have been richest in past but right now they are broke as the rest of Spain. If they leave they won't be in EU and also all that richness will fade away with the maintenance for everything that Madrid provides them.
    Unless they want to be added to the list of another country which needs to be bailed out its better they stay inside Spain and face what the rest of the Spain is facing la crisis.


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-22/catalonia-spain-s-richest-region-aims-to-beat-deficit-target.html


    That's over a year old. It's worsened since then.

    http://www.catalannewsagency.com/news/politics/unemployment-catalonia-increased-13849-people-october-reaching-historical-record


    It'd be interesting to see what ultimately happens. Is the region still wealthy despite the recent higher levels of unemployment (differentiating between income and stock wealth)? Other press is still calling them wealthy relative to other regions...

    http://rt.com/news/catalonia-independence-bid-illegal-442/

    Catalonia, unlike the Basque region, is Spain's most economic powerful region – but having requested €5 billion ($6.6 billion) in bailout funds from the central government, it is also the most indebted due to the economic crisis strangling the nation.

    Many Catalans complain that their region pumps money into the central government’s coffers, with little sent back in return. It is a legitimate point – Catalonia pays at least $15 billion more in tax revenues than it receives back in social spending or investments in infrastructure.

    Yet campaigners for independence argue that the real reason for Madrid's announcement is its inability to deal with its own financial troubles without support from the regions.


    Not sure if these fundamentals still hold?
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Dec 23, 2012 11:46 PM GMT
    Cataluña is definitely still better off than a lot of other autonomous communities in Spain because it's the most developed part of the country. But it's still susceptible to all the problems that are lurking.

    I think Euskadi/Basque Country can boast about being the most prosperous and stable region now. Or at least Basque media seem to think so icon_cool.gif

    Meanwhile it's a whole other race between Andalucía, Extremadura, and Canary Islands as to which region has it worst of all icon_lol.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Dec 24, 2012 1:56 AM GMT
    nicodegallo saidCataluña is definitely still better off than a lot of other autonomous communities in Spain because it's the most developed part of the country. But it's still susceptible to all the problems that are lurking.

    I think Euskadi/Basque Country can boast about being the most prosperous and stable region now. Or at least Basque media seem to think so icon_cool.gif

    Meanwhile it's a whole other race between Andalucía, Extremadura, and Canary Islands as to which region has it worst of all icon_lol.gif


    It would seem like it would be difficult for any region to really escape what's happening though? Do you think that secession is likely?
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Dec 24, 2012 5:13 AM GMT
    I'm just not sure if secession is the answer right now. Secession would be more realistic and plausible if there were more stability on both ends. I think even Catalunya's economy has become too fragile to break away from the kingdom without repercussions. Basically what I wonder is could Catalunya be truly independent including financially independent from Spain? I'm not entirely convinced that independence will be the solution to their problems. Sometimes I get the feeling that Catalunya still depends on Spain and Spain depends on Catalunya in some way.

    We shall see. I think the only thing we can expect for now is that things will get worse before they get better. It's not really my place to say anyway since I'm not Catalan and haven't lived in Spain since I was 7 years old.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Dec 24, 2012 4:03 PM GMT
    Cataluñya has chosen the wrong time for secession. They should have done all this when Spain was riding on house bubble with money to be distributed for free. Now when everyone is broke it won't make much difference.
  • roadbikeRob

    Posts: 14372

    Dec 24, 2012 7:39 PM GMT
    Secession from Spain and creating more political fragmentation is definitely the wrong answer. The Catalonian people need to carefully weigh the pros and cons of secession. Hopefully this sentiment will eventually die off in much the same way as Quebec wanting to secede from Canada.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Dec 24, 2012 7:43 PM GMT
    Plus, it's weird to think that Andalusians migrating to an independent Catalunya would be treated as immigrants. Millions of Andalusians have made Catalunya their home since the '60s icon_lol.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Dec 24, 2012 8:56 PM GMT
    roadbikeRob saidSecession from Spain and creating more political fragmentation is definitely the wrong answer. The Catalonian people need to carefully weigh the pros and cons of secession. Hopefully this sentiment will eventually die off in much the same way as Quebec wanting to secede from Canada.


    I have no idea if the right answer for Catalonia is to separate but you're a fool if you're drawing comparisons to a have not province like Quebec. As if the Catalonians aren't weighing the pros and cons.

    What is clear though is that the odds of secession have risen considerably over the last month.

    A more interesting discussion on the merits of secession here:
    http://www.debatingeurope.eu/2012/10/08/should-catalonia-be-independent/
  • roadbikeRob

    Posts: 14372

    Dec 29, 2012 4:16 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    roadbikeRob saidSecession from Spain and creating more political fragmentation is definitely the wrong answer. The Catalonian people need to carefully weigh the pros and cons of secession. Hopefully this sentiment will eventually die off in much the same way as Quebec wanting to secede from Canada.


    I have no idea if the right answer for Catalonia is to separate but you're a fool if you're drawing comparisons to a have not province like Quebec. As if the Catalonians aren't weighing the pros and cons.

    What is clear though is that the odds of secession have risen considerably over the last month.

    A more interesting discussion on the merits of secession here:
    http://www.debatingeurope.eu/2012/10/08/should-catalonia-be-independent/
    You are a damned fool because you don't know how to communicate with people without resorting to name calling. Most secession attempts are very radical, political acts that is if you can comprehend that fact.
  • FitGwynedd

    Posts: 1468

    Dec 29, 2012 4:20 PM GMT
    If Catalonia breaks away the EU is hopelessly fucked.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Dec 29, 2012 4:21 PM GMT
    FitGwynedd saidIf Catalonia breaks away the EU is hopelessly fucked.

    Ehh!! Why is that? Can you elaborate a bit?
  • FitGwynedd

    Posts: 1468

    Dec 29, 2012 4:25 PM GMT
    Shagglot said
    FitGwynedd saidIf Catalonia breaks away the EU is hopelessly fucked.

    Ehh!! Why is that? Can you elaborate a bit?


    Spain, which is already on the verge of collapse, will collapse without its most productive region. Following the collapse of Spain there will be a collapse of the Euro, as it will plummet in value and Germany has already started stockpiling deutschemarks, and the big countries like France and Germany will abandon the Euro for their former currencies. In countries like Greece there will be widespread economic chaos, Ireland will go on the pound sterling, and the UK will say 'bugger off' to the Eurozone. This will lead to the full collapse of the Eurozone and the EU will be unable to survive without the Eurozone.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Dec 29, 2012 4:31 PM GMT
    FitGwynedd said
    Shagglot said
    FitGwynedd saidIf Catalonia breaks away the EU is hopelessly fucked.

    Ehh!! Why is that? Can you elaborate a bit?


    Spain, which is already on the verge of collapse, will collapse without its most productive region. Following the collapse of Spain there will be a collapse of the Euro, as it will plummet in value and Germany has already started stockpiling deutschemarks, and the big countries like France and Germany will abandon the Euro for their former currencies. In countries like Greece there will be widespread economic chaos, Ireland will go on the pound sterling, and the UK will say 'bugger off' to the Eurozone. This will lead to the full collapse of the Eurozone and the EU will be unable to survive without the Eurozone.


    Actually Cataluñya is already broke. You can see that in many link posted above. Right now Madrid is paying money to Cataluñya not the other way around. There used to be time when Cataluñya was financing Madrid. Right now its not the case. So basically Cataluñya is as screwed as rest of Spain. The only good thing they are hoping after secession is that they will be able to generate revenues on their own which may or may not be the case. But then they will go out of EU and they will spend more money in maintaining their governance than they will be able to save by not paying to Madrid. They will lose big amount of business from rest of EU and Spain. They lost the opportunity of secession when there was money all over Spain.
    Spain may or may not collapse even without Cataluñya. That's a big speculation. Yes things are bad but EU has been carrying its weight for a while. I don't think secession of Cataluñya would be the catalyst for the splitting of EU.
  • FitGwynedd

    Posts: 1468

    Dec 29, 2012 4:40 PM GMT
    Shagglot said
    FitGwynedd said
    Shagglot said
    FitGwynedd saidIf Catalonia breaks away the EU is hopelessly fucked.

    Ehh!! Why is that? Can you elaborate a bit?


    Spain, which is already on the verge of collapse, will collapse without its most productive region. Following the collapse of Spain there will be a collapse of the Euro, as it will plummet in value and Germany has already started stockpiling deutschemarks, and the big countries like France and Germany will abandon the Euro for their former currencies. In countries like Greece there will be widespread economic chaos, Ireland will go on the pound sterling, and the UK will say 'bugger off' to the Eurozone. This will lead to the full collapse of the Eurozone and the EU will be unable to survive without the Eurozone.


    Actually Cataluñya is already broke. You can see that in many link posted above. Right now Madrid is paying money to Cataluñya not the other way around. There used to be time when Cataluñya was financing Madrid. Right now its not the case. So basically Cataluñya is as screwed as rest of Spain. The only good thing they are hoping after secession is that they will be able to generate revenues on their own which may or may not be the case. But then they will go out of EU and they will spend more money in maintaining their governance than they will be able to save by not paying to Madrid. They will lose big amount of business from rest of EU and Spain. They lost the opportunity of secession when there was money all over Spain.
    Spain may or may not collapse even without Cataluñya. That's a big speculation. Yes things are bad but EU has been carrying its weight for a while. I don't think secession of Cataluñya would be the catalyst for the splitting of EU.


    Of course it will because we want out and Cameron will use it as an excuse to pull us out and the EU is completely fucked without us.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Dec 29, 2012 4:45 PM GMT
    FitGwynedd said
    Shagglot said
    FitGwynedd said
    Shagglot said
    FitGwynedd saidIf Catalonia breaks away the EU is hopelessly fucked.

    Ehh!! Why is that? Can you elaborate a bit?


    Spain, which is already on the verge of collapse, will collapse without its most productive region. Following the collapse of Spain there will be a collapse of the Euro, as it will plummet in value and Germany has already started stockpiling deutschemarks, and the big countries like France and Germany will abandon the Euro for their former currencies. In countries like Greece there will be widespread economic chaos, Ireland will go on the pound sterling, and the UK will say 'bugger off' to the Eurozone. This will lead to the full collapse of the Eurozone and the EU will be unable to survive without the Eurozone.


    Actually Cataluñya is already broke. You can see that in many link posted above. Right now Madrid is paying money to Cataluñya not the other way around. There used to be time when Cataluñya was financing Madrid. Right now its not the case. So basically Cataluñya is as screwed as rest of Spain. The only good thing they are hoping after secession is that they will be able to generate revenues on their own which may or may not be the case. But then they will go out of EU and they will spend more money in maintaining their governance than they will be able to save by not paying to Madrid. They will lose big amount of business from rest of EU and Spain. They lost the opportunity of secession when there was money all over Spain.
    Spain may or may not collapse even without Cataluñya. That's a big speculation. Yes things are bad but EU has been carrying its weight for a while. I don't think secession of Cataluñya would be the catalyst for the splitting of EU.


    Of course it will because we want out and Cameron will use it as an excuse to pull us out and the EU is completely fucked without us.


    That's a bit of misconception. Its a two way road. Anyway you are a British so I guess arguing over it would be a pointless but you should see it from a neutral point of view like I am