Interesting, but I think you absolutely have to figure on the high side to be safe and possibly even practical, especially with the potential medical advances (telomeres) which could come into being within these diabetic lifetimes
But I think an even bigger issue--and if not bigger certainly concurrent--is not even the fucking money but the time. My father has been retired for 20 years, in good health still in his 80s. So he might have 30 even 40 years of basically watching television. Ick. You gotta fill in that time with something.
I think that as life expectancy rises, so must the age of receiving benefits. And they had started that. I won't receive full benefits until age 66.6 instead of 65. And even then, untess we have more immigration to bring in more people working or find another fix, I believe my benefits reduce to 75% when I hit about 85.
And I'm not even convinced that retirement is a necessary part of life, certainly not for 20, 30, 40 years, whatever. I personally believe this is a blip in history. Work is not a four letter word. We derive a lot more from it than money.
One of the huge, mostly unspoken problems I see here is that while people are calling for means testing and raising retirement age et al, very few seem to be discussing ageism. Let's assume for a moment that work is a four letter word as it seems so often to be treated. Now if you are going to force a person to work, don't you have supply a job?
Rock and a hard place. We're now going to means test you so that you can't afford to live the life you planned without continuing to work but we're going to discriminate based upon your age so that you can't work, be promoted, whatever. This is horseshit.
I believe these discussions inextricable. Any discussion on limiting retirement must include facilitating working.http://agingandwork.bc.edu/blog/how-age-bias-hurts-business/According to a 2009 survey of workers and job seekers between the ages of 55 and 70, 43 percent of those who were currently seeking work or who had retired because they could not find work said the main problem was “they could not find an employer who would hire someone their age.”