The PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Prediction Thread.

  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19123

    Sep 22, 2008 3:34 PM GMT
    Okay guys, with 6 weeks to go until the big day, I thought it would be fun for us to make our predictions now and see how close we come when all is said and done. We've all argued back and forth, and will continue to I am sure in the weeks to come -- especially after the debates begin on Friday night. That said, let's not make this a bickering thread, just post your prediction and leave it at that. I'll start...


    McCain 48%


    Obama 42%


    Other 10%
  • HndsmKansan

    Posts: 16311

    Sep 22, 2008 3:39 PM GMT
    You never cease to amaze me Todd.... but I'll bite..
    I'm also adding my guess to the electoral college (270 needed)

    OBAMA 48% 286

    McCAIN 46% 252

    Other: 6%

    Let the celebration begin... the dems return to the White House!
    McCain returns to the senate and the Palin woman is outta here.....

    No Bickering, just a statement. And I know Todd will have a comment...
    Just give your assessment of the electoral map and nothing else...LOL







  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19123

    Sep 22, 2008 4:06 PM GMT
    Now now, I know it's hard for you, Chris, but no bickering in this thread...just your prediction with no comments from the peanut gallery icon_lol.gif
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    Sep 22, 2008 4:27 PM GMT
    I am going to be a jerk and start bickering.

    Do you guys really think other candidates are going to take 6%-10% of the vote? Nader got 2% in 2000 and third parties got around 1% in 2004. The third parties seem just as anemic this year as they did last election cycle.

    Obama 50%
    McCain 48%
    Other 1%

    Electoral
    Obama 310
    McCain 260
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    Sep 22, 2008 5:49 PM GMT
    I was leaning towards McCain until he chose Palin for VP and the whole Wall Street mess reared its' ugly head (overall Obama had a better week than McCain last week).

    Obama/Biden - 50%
    McCain/Palin - 48.5%
    Other - 1.5%

    Very close in the electoral college. Ohio and Pennsylvania will be two of the key "swing" states. Texas will go Republican and California and New York will go Democrat (no surprises there). Minnesota and Wisconsin may be surprises for the Republicans.

    The race will be closer than it should be considering the unpopularity of the current incumbent. But the US is a more conservative country then most Western democracies, so the Republicans benefit from that.

    Meanwhile Canada is heading for a Conservative majority. Women seem to like the current PM. I must admit he comes across better than his main rival.
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    Sep 22, 2008 7:25 PM GMT
    Obama - Still alive
    McCain - dead of a heart attack
    U.S. sings "Ding dong the witch is dead"
  • HndsmKansan

    Posts: 16311

    Sep 22, 2008 7:29 PM GMT
    McGay said


    U.S. sings "Ding dong the witch is dead"

    I laughed so hard, there were people in the hall looking at me...

    The Palin woman?? LOL
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    Sep 22, 2008 8:09 PM GMT
    Or McCain, either or.
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    Sep 22, 2008 8:55 PM GMT


    Electoral

    Obama: 280

    McCain: 254

    Other: non issue
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    Sep 22, 2008 9:23 PM GMT
    I predict a landslide for McCain. New York and California will probably go McCain too. Just watch and see.

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    Sep 22, 2008 9:28 PM GMT
    John43620 saidI predict a landslide for McCain. New York and California will probably go McCain too. Just watch and see.



    A landslide? John, I hafta ask, what color is the sky in your world? Because, for the rest of us, it's blue. No pun intended.
  • MuslDrew

    Posts: 463

    Sep 22, 2008 9:39 PM GMT
    John43620 saidI predict a landslide for McCain. New York and California will probably go McCain too. Just watch and see.


    New York & CA?
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    Sep 22, 2008 9:49 PM GMT
    http://www.peteyandpetunia.com/VoteHere/VoteHere.htm


    obmalogo1.jpg : 49.5%

    mccainq.jpg: 48%

    Other: 2.5%
  • HndsmKansan

    Posts: 16311

    Sep 23, 2008 12:50 AM GMT
    John43620 saidI predict a landslide for McCain. New York and California will probably go McCain too. Just watch and see.



    I sense a problem understanding reality... bipolar?
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    Sep 23, 2008 1:10 AM GMT
    zeebyaboi said
    John43620 saidI predict a landslide for McCain. New York and California will probably go McCain too. Just watch and see.



    A landslide? John, I hafta ask, what color is the sky in your world? Because, for the rest of us, it's blue. No pun intended.




    thank you.
  • spinningguy

    Posts: 178

    Sep 23, 2008 2:03 AM GMT
    I think that Obama and the Democrats will pick up Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico which they lost with Kerry for 273 electoral votes with a strong possibility of picking up Nevada and an outside chance of picking up Virginia.

    I don't think that McCain and the Republicans will pick up any new states however if there do have any pick ups over the past it will either be in Wisconsin or in Pennsylvania.

    In the end I predict a pick up in Nevada for Obama.

    Obama 278
    McCain 260

    John43620 saidI predict a landslide for McCain. New York and California will probably go McCain too. Just watch and see.


    John the poling math is not on your side...

    New York poles have Obama at 52% to McCains 40% if you add all 8% of undecided or third parties you still don't have a NY pick up.

    California poles have Obama at 53% to McCains 39% again add everyone up and still no pickup.

    You might as well predict that McCain will pick up DC's 3 Electoral votes as well. Where Obama is poling at 82% to McCain's 13%.
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    Sep 23, 2008 6:04 AM GMT
    Well, let's let poor Obama go actually work at his current job - and when he puts in some more time - he can come back and try again for a promotion. In the meantime, there is serious work to be done in Washington - and let's give the job to someone who hasn't spent most of his time campaigning for what he hopes will be his promotion.

    Obama? NObama.
  • HndsmKansan

    Posts: 16311

    Sep 23, 2008 11:29 AM GMT
    Jockbod48 saidWell, let's let poor Obama go actually work at his current job - and when he puts in some more time - he can come back and try again for a promotion. In the meantime, there is serious work to be done in Washington - and let's give the job to someone who hasn't spent most of his time campaigning for what he hopes will be his promotion.

    Obama? NObama.


    And we ask a serious question....here, you didn't answer it. Percentages please....
  • Koaa2

    Posts: 1556

    Sep 23, 2008 12:37 PM GMT
    Obama/Biden=49

    McSame/Post Turtle=44
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    Sep 24, 2008 6:46 AM GMT
    zeebyaboi said
    John43620 saidI predict a landslide for McCain. New York and California will probably go McCain too. Just watch and see.



    A landslide? John, I hafta ask, what color is the sky in your world? Because, for the rest of us, it's blue. No pun intended.


    Zee...first I read the aforesaid statement and thought to myself: that poor lamb is sadly delusional . . . then, I read your reply and belted out a laugh so hard that the people sitting near me in the airport lounge looked over at me !!! I guess there are some that, even with all the lies, betrayals and crimes against people of this country and the world, remain blind to the light.

    Obama/Biden: 52.5%
    McCain/Palin: 38.5%
    Other: 9%

    B787
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    Sep 24, 2008 7:00 AM GMT
    I don't know the outcome, but based on current projections, despite the popular vote, I'd say Obama winning somewhere around 270 -- without places like Ohio, and Florida, but with places like Michigan, Colorado and New Mexico. The race is close and Florida and Ohio could go either way, and a shocker could be Indiana where things are actually very close, and not the sure bet McCain thinks they are -- though he may actual start adds in the state -- one that has been reliably republican for the last three decades.

    My guess is 50 - 49 % in favor of Obama, overall, but that could change and the other candidates less than 1 %. California and New York WON"T go Republican -- that is dreaming along the lines that places like Alabama and Mississippi will go Democrat, ain't happenin'. But doesn't matter, as the election is decided in other places, and other counties, and Arizona isn't one of them either, so those there get to wait and bite there nails like the rest of us.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 24, 2008 12:05 PM GMT
    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
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    Sep 24, 2008 12:35 PM GMT
    obscenewish saidhttp://www.fivethirtyeight.com/


    Can I gush for a second? (And not about OW, who is pretty gushworthy)

    FiveThrityEight is the best poll watching site. Unlike Pollster, who just puts puts any old poll up into their averages, 538 weights each of them and selects data out of the poll based on prior performance, the poll's universe, the number of undecideds and third party voters polled, the works. It makes my heart flutter.

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    Nov 08, 2012 10:33 PM GMT
    Going way back.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Nov 08, 2012 10:48 PM GMT
    Iceblink saidGoing way back.


    Yes...but so worth it!! icon_cool.gif
    Love to hear the traitorous, hypocritical, Gay republicans on here make every excuse they can for how their beloved, Gay hating, party lost. icon_biggrin.gif

    Tristan