What's the economic truth, from your point of view?

  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 02, 2008 10:42 PM GMT
    Here in Australia we are hearing that things are really bad over there in the States, it almost sounds like everyone is losing their home and just surviving.

    I know things have happened there and it has effected a lot of people but here in Australia currently we seem to be in a different situation that it really hasn't hit us the way it has over there.

    Is our media over stating the facts or is it really hard.

    Would love to read you thoughts and comments.
  • GQjock

    Posts: 11649

    Oct 02, 2008 11:16 PM GMT
    You know that saying You're up a certain type of Creek without a paddle?

    ... Well we're pretty much without the friggin' Boat too icon_confused.gif
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    Oct 02, 2008 11:32 PM GMT
    I guess it depends on what part of the country you're in... I don't personally know anyone whose lost their home or their job due to the economy. It feels more like we're just waiting for the blast to hit.
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    Oct 03, 2008 12:35 AM GMT
    If there is a problem it isn't in my area.The news media harps on it way too much,I think the media just wants to make things seem worse than what they really are.
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    Oct 03, 2008 2:32 AM GMT
    I don't know of anyone who is any worse off than they were 4 or 8 years ago with the exception of a few people who've lost family in both 9/11 and the war.

    A few people have less and less disposable income available but all of them carry the fault. V-10 Excursions, boats, spending time at Home Depot, etc....
  • dfrourke

    Posts: 1062

    Oct 03, 2008 3:09 AM GMT
    Great question...

    The hardest part of this economic issue is that we are just beginning to see how impactful it can be...I spoke to my students about it in class and they were oblivious for the most part...I still have my job even though California almost didn't have a state budget going into October which would have meant I may not have gotten paid [and my answer may have been VERY different]...here's a viscious cycle...

    My profession has a double edged sword [it works like this]: When the economy is bad, people decide to go back to school and work on their skills for a better paying job. This takes people out of the workforce and out of the tax base. Less taxes coming in, less funding to serve the incoming students to campus. Tuition goes up to meet the costs associated with influx of students. Less aid to support students when tuition goes up due to taxes being low. Less people who want/need to go back to school can actually afford to do so. Admissions standards go up.

    Now we are stuck.

    San Francisco has lived in a bubble for a VERY long time and our city continues to grow, but our house values have dropped by 24%. Good for those people who are first time home buyers and want to get into the market. The economic crisis will tighten lenders on WHO can qualify for a loan, so even if home prices drop, many of us wont be able to secure a loan to buy a house.

    Now we are stuck.

    Gas prices have decreased a bit in the last weeks [but we saw this the last time there was a major election as well and then within 24 hours of voting, the prices shot back up]. The expense of durable goods has gone up to compensate for gas prices. Less money to do anything outside of the basics like buy food and afford a roof over your head. Less disposable income = less consuming = less job growth and perhaps more layoffs and companies downsize to stay viable. More credit card spending to make ends meet. Less ability to pay off the credit debt. More defaulting on loans and filing for bankruptcy and we are right where we are today...

    Stuck.

    When it comes to the economy anyone who has been schooled in economic issues knows there is not ONE thing you do to affect the economy. You have to tweak a variety of things to get it moving in the right direction. All of these things begin to affect confidence in our society and we remain in a downward spiral. I personally haven't seen all of this scenario played out yet...I think we are about 20% down the road...

    Interested to hear what others think.

    - David icon_neutral.gif

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    Oct 03, 2008 3:41 AM GMT
    About 10 years ago I knew a guy who was writing a PhD dissertation on mushrooms. At about the same time there was an article in the paper about a family that went for a picnic in Michigan, picked their own mushrooms to put on hamburgers, and accidentally poisoned themselves. Some died, and some needed liver transplants.

    My friend said that if you eat poisonous mushrooms and get sick right away, you'll probably recover. But if you eat poisonous mushrooms and you feel fine for a few days and then get really sick a week later you're likely to die or to need some kind of serious medical intervention (like a liver transplant) because the poison has had time to do a lot of damage.

    I think the economy ate poisonous mushrooms six days ago.

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    Oct 03, 2008 3:45 AM GMT
    I want to thank you guys for the feed back. It is most interesting in what I am reading here, as the media in Australia has taken the line that the USA is in total decline.

    It is great to get feed back on these global issue from the ground level as from the spin doctors.

    Thanks for the input and look forward to reading more.
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    Oct 03, 2008 11:49 AM GMT
    I have to tag on with the other guys. I don't know anyone that has had their house foreclosed on, lost their job or anything like that.
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    Oct 03, 2008 12:29 PM GMT
    Exactly. Recessions are apart of the normal economic cycle. Thats not to say that things can't be done to minimize the effects or duration of one. 2/3 of the US economy is domestic consumer spending so really its our own fault cause we aren't shopping enough icon_smile.gif maybe I will go do my part for the economy this weekend icon_smile.gif
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    Oct 03, 2008 2:19 PM GMT
    Rhodielifter saidRecessions are apart of the normal economic cycle.


    I'd be more worried if the economy never had a recession. We have to accept it as it is currently and learn from it so that it may not hit us so hard the next time it happens.
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    Oct 05, 2008 11:13 PM GMT
    We have a political party here in the states called "Democrats", they're proven crooks. But, many Americans are dumb enough to vote for them.

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    Oct 05, 2008 11:31 PM GMT
    The economic problems seem magnified in the press because wealthy people in New York, where much of the national press is based, are losing money. The effects are fairly invisible in my region. Especially when compared with economic fluctuations (changes in the price of metals, inventions of "endangered species," etc.) that periodically wipe out whole towns of working people. But those things don't affect rich people in New York, so they don't make the news.
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    Oct 05, 2008 11:46 PM GMT
    John43620 saidWe have a political party here in the states called "Democrats", they're proven crooks. But, many Americans are dumb enough to vote for them.



    Republicans love America, they just hate half the country.
    Jon Stewart


  • CuriousJockAZ

    Posts: 19129

    Oct 05, 2008 11:47 PM GMT
    I don't personally know anyone here in Arizona who has lost their job, or their house. That is not to say that homes aren't being foreclosed on all over town because they are. Why? Because a lot of people here in Arizona tried to cash in on the real estate boom of a few years ago and got caught with their pants down when the rates went up, the prices went down, and people were in homes they couldn't afford. Don't get me wrong, Arizona is feeling the pinch of the current economic woes too, but it's not nearly as bad as the media might have you believe. Restaurants are busy, malls are bustling with activity, the tourists are beginning to arrive as we move into season.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 05, 2008 11:48 PM GMT
    Anyway...the Great Depression didn't take a day or even a year to come into full fruitation.
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    Oct 06, 2008 12:06 AM GMT
    In the past 12 months 760,000 jobs have been lost in the US. The unemployment rate is 6.1% in the US which is quite low but has gone up considerably from the 4.3 or so it was. Next year's budget deficit could reach $700 billion. So things are not dire at the moment, but the worse is likely to come.

    Most experts agree the only question is how deep and long the recession will be, not whether there will be one. As the US "deleverages" (consumers and business lessen their debt loads) demand of foreign goods will drop causing other economies to slow. We will likely not see another "boom" until the next decade. I can't say I envy the next US president or Congress. They will have their work cut out for them.
  • Koaa2

    Posts: 1556

    Oct 06, 2008 12:46 AM GMT
    John43620 saidWe have a political party here in the states called "Democrats", they're proven crooks. But, many Americans are dumb enough to vote for them.



    Umm, let's see, how many Republicans, have been investigated so far, this past 8 years, to many to count, but I think that most Republicans connected to Jack Abramoff are either in prison, under investigation or have resigned. Umm, I do recall a guy named Scooter Libby who had to resign. Umm, I also recall a guy named Alberto Gonzales, who had to resign, or face investigation.

    I wonder who the real crooks and criminals are?
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 06, 2008 12:58 AM GMT
    John43620 saidWe have a political party here in the states called "Democrats", they're proven crooks. But, many Americans are dumb enough to vote for them.



    I don't often swear in these forums, but you've got to be fucking kidding. Which party awarded no-bid contracts to Haliburton and other Bush/Cheney cronies? Which party deeply de-regulated the financial industry for 28 years, and then failed to enforce whatever remaining regulations remained? Which party advocated a "preemptive" strike on a sovereign nation (based upon false premises, mind you), and then proceeded to spend $10Bn a month to fight a war that was supposed to last months, if not weeks. What industry has benefited the most over the last eight years (hint: it rhymes with toil).

    John, lay off the Kool Aid, already.

    Handstuart - It sounds like the Australian media covers foreign issues in much the same way the US media does. It sounds like a gross generalization of the realities on "Main Street" (our pundits' new catch phrase du jour). True, there have been 750,000 jobs lost, over the past year, but unemployment is now at 6.1% -- high by US standards, but many other countries would consider that a very respectable number. In my opinion, it's an intentional tactic to incite fear and panic in the marketplace so that Bush's cronies can make a few more billions before he leaves office.

    Now, things could get worse if John's party continues the Bush administration's lame-ass policies, but I expect that Obama and the Democrats, who know how to run an economy, will manage to turn things around.