Scientists: 'No Options' To Stop Massive Asteroids On Collision Course

  • metta

    Posts: 39099

    Mar 21, 2013 12:22 AM GMT
    Scientists: 'No Options' To Stop Massive Asteroids On Collision Course

    http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/03/20/174851714/scientists-no-options-to-stop-massive-asteroids-on-collision-course
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Mar 21, 2013 2:09 AM GMT
    The point of this has nothing to do with what could happen. The point is that there's currently not enough funding to find potentially dangerous NEO's.

    Sure, many have already been found and are being tracked, but not all of them. That's the scary part.
  • chaotic1

    Posts: 93

    Mar 21, 2013 2:18 AM GMT
    I'm sorry, why bother finding them if we can't do anything about them?

    Personally, I'd rather not have two months warning that my life was going to end. icon_confused.gif
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    Mar 21, 2013 2:29 AM GMT
    chaotic1 saidI'm sorry, why bother finding them if we can't do anything about them?

    Personally, I'd rather not have two months warning that my life was going to end. icon_confused.gif
    It's not about us knowing. It's about the world leaders knowing so they can band together to find a way to change its trajectory (if there's enough time).

    After all, if it's large enough to end civilization, even amateur astronomers would see it more than two months away. We need to be able to see it two decades away.
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    Mar 21, 2013 2:32 AM GMT
    chaotic1 saidI'm sorry, why bother finding them if we can't do anything about them?

    Personally, I'd rather not have two months warning that my life was going to end. icon_confused.gif


    I'd like to know. Why spend the last two months of my life working when I can drain my IRA and 401(k) and have some fun.
  • Medjai

    Posts: 2671

    Mar 21, 2013 2:42 AM GMT
    Apparently there are ways: laser deflection.

    http://proceedings.aip.org/resource/2/apcpcs/664/1/509_1?isAuthorized=no
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    Mar 21, 2013 2:45 AM GMT
    It's nice to know that people with no scientific background have all the answers.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Mar 21, 2013 2:48 AM GMT
    End of the world orgy!! Yeaaaah !!!

    I'll probably end up rioting and looting.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Mar 21, 2013 2:52 AM GMT
    Anocxu saidEnd of the world orgy!! Yeaaaah !!!

    I'll probably end up rioting and looting.
    That's because you're black. White people are smarter than that. We just cup our faces and open our mouths really wide till the shit hits the fan...or the asteroid hits the earth.

    A1Q35N-CcAAgLrh.jpg
  • Medjai

    Posts: 2671

    Mar 21, 2013 2:53 AM GMT
    paulflexes saidIt's nice to know that people with no scientific background have all the answers.


    I'm pretty sure the AIP knows what they're taking about.
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    Mar 21, 2013 2:54 AM GMT
    Ahhh, as usual it all becomes about money...

    "But detection requires investment, they said."
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    Mar 21, 2013 2:59 AM GMT
    Medjai said
    paulflexes saidIt's nice to know that people with no scientific background have all the answers.


    I'm pretty sure the AIP knows what they're taking about.
    No they don't, and they freely admit that. All they know is what the results of their mathematical equations have told them. That doesn't mean they're right...it just means that's the best answer they have for now. It's a shame that people take it as fact when it's only untested theory.
  • Whipmagic

    Posts: 1481

    Mar 21, 2013 3:00 AM GMT
    Medjai said
    paulflexes saidIt's nice to know that people with no scientific background have all the answers.


    I'm pretty sure the AIP knows what they're taking about.


    What you linked to there are conference proceedings published by the AIP. That means someone gave a talk at a meeting, and wrote a summary, which is then published, but generally without rigorous peer review. The findings certainly aren't AIP endorsed. I would take a report that's published only there but never made it into a serious peer-reviewed journal with more than a grain of salt.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Mar 21, 2013 3:01 AM GMT
    smudgetool saidAhhh, as usual it all becomes about money...

    "But detection requires investment, they said."
    Welcome to Business 101.
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    Mar 21, 2013 3:08 AM GMT
    Smegmabreath said
    Anocxu saidEnd of the world orgy!! Yeaaaah !!!

    I'll probably end up rioting and looting.
    That's because you're black. White people are smarter than that. We just cup our faces and open our mouths really wide till the shit hits the fan...or the asteroid hits the earth.

    A1Q35N-CcAAgLrh.jpg


    Keep looking up Whitie !!

    Know where you 60" 3D T.V. went??..

    Well I Do!!.. icon_wink.gif
  • Medjai

    Posts: 2671

    Mar 21, 2013 3:12 AM GMT
    Whipmagic said
    Medjai said
    paulflexes saidIt's nice to know that people with no scientific background have all the answers.


    I'm pretty sure the AIP knows what they're taking about.


    What you linked to there are conference proceedings published by the AIP. That means someone gave a talk at a meeting, and wrote a summary, which is then published, but generally without rigorous peer review. The findings certainly aren't AIP endorsed. I would take a report that's published only there but never made it into a serious peer-reviewed journal with more than a grain of salt.


    Honestly, I got the link from an xkcd blog post, and looked OP who the AIP was, and thought that'd be digging enough for the purposes of this discussion.
  • Montague

    Posts: 5205

    Mar 21, 2013 3:19 AM GMT
    Anocxu said
    Smegmabreath said
    Anocxu saidEnd of the world orgy!! Yeaaaah !!!

    I'll probably end up rioting and looting.
    That's because you're black. White people are smarter than that. We just cup our faces and open our mouths really wide till the shit hits the fan...or the asteroid hits the earth.

    A1Q35N-CcAAgLrh.jpg


    Keep looking up Whitie !!

    Know where you 60" 3D T.V. went??..

    Well I Do!!.. icon_wink.gif


    I can finally get a Bugatti to crash!
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Mar 21, 2013 3:21 AM GMT
    paulflexes said
    chaotic1 saidI'm sorry, why bother finding them if we can't do anything about them?

    Personally, I'd rather not have two months warning that my life was going to end. icon_confused.gif
    It's not about us knowing. It's about the world leaders knowing so they can band together to find a way to change its trajectory (if there's enough time).

    After all, if it's large enough to end civilization, even amateur astronomers would see it more than two months away. We need to be able to see it two decades away.


    Why would all government leaders band together for this when we as a species are always on the verge of nuclear/chemical, or biological annihilation at our own hands? And as this thread already proves....there is no real cooperation or even consensus on what the problem is let alone the answers, funding, team....etc. you really think all the fighting would stop to solve this world wide catastrophe...some dolt out there is hoping it happens so he can have those virgins or whatever and see their deity....
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Mar 21, 2013 3:23 AM GMT
    Montague said


    I can finally get a Bugatti to crash!


    images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSCEssHvnp-qIYWvXxsohK
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    Mar 21, 2013 3:34 AM GMT
    Unintended said
    chaotic1 saidI'm sorry, why bother finding them if we can't do anything about them?

    Personally, I'd rather not have two months warning that my life was going to end. icon_confused.gif


    Right now, that might be in the behind the scenes discussion. What if we knew that in 10 years, the Earth would be destroyed?

    Imagine the chaos...



    With current technology the best option is to blow up nuclear devices next to the asteroid before it gets anywhere near Earth. That small course change becomes a large course change across a 10 or 20 year period. That is why they want to be able to find them years before they get here. A few months is not enough time to be able to change the path enough not to destroy the Earth with current technology. The best bet is a small course change years ahead of time.
  • Montague

    Posts: 5205

    Mar 21, 2013 3:37 AM GMT
    Anocxu said
    Montague said


    I can finally get a Bugatti to crash!


    images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSCEssHvnp-qIYWvXxsohK


    It's just like in the movies where there's a black president and a giant asteroid is coming to destroy the earth!! hah
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Mar 21, 2013 3:41 AM GMT
    Anocxu said
    Smegmabreath said
    Anocxu saidEnd of the world orgy!! Yeaaaah !!!

    I'll probably end up rioting and looting.
    That's because you're black. White people are smarter than that. We just cup our faces and open our mouths really wide till the shit hits the fan...or the asteroid hits the earth.

    A1Q35N-CcAAgLrh.jpg


    Keep looking up Whitie !!

    Know where you 60" 3D T.V. went??..

    Well I Do!!.. icon_wink.gif
    Yeah. I traded it for your stolen 2014 Bentley prototype cause you were dumb enough to believe me when I said it was worth more. icon_twisted.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Mar 21, 2013 3:45 AM GMT
    paulflexes said
    Anocxu said
    Smegmabreath said
    Anocxu saidEnd of the world orgy!! Yeaaaah !!!

    I'll probably end up rioting and looting.
    That's because you're black. White people are smarter than that. We just cup our faces and open our mouths really wide till the shit hits the fan...or the asteroid hits the earth.

    A1Q35N-CcAAgLrh.jpg


    Keep looking up Whitie !!

    Know where you 60" 3D T.V. went??..

    Well I Do!!.. icon_wink.gif
    Yeah. I traded it for your stolen 2014 Bentley prototype cause you were dumb enough to believe me when I said it was worth more. icon_twisted.gif


    Aww HELL No IT didn't. !!
    I'd Pawn you too but I could just reach in the crack of my couch.... for 50 cents. BITCH!! icon_eek.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Mar 21, 2013 3:48 AM GMT
    Anocxu said
    paulflexes said
    Anocxu said
    Smegmabreath said
    Anocxu saidEnd of the world orgy!! Yeaaaah !!!

    I'll probably end up rioting and looting.
    That's because you're black. White people are smarter than that. We just cup our faces and open our mouths really wide till the shit hits the fan...or the asteroid hits the earth.

    A1Q35N-CcAAgLrh.jpg


    Keep looking up Whitie !!

    Know where you 60" 3D T.V. went??..

    Well I Do!!.. icon_wink.gif
    Yeah. I traded it for your stolen 2014 Bentley prototype cause you were dumb enough to believe me when I said it was worth more. icon_twisted.gif


    Aww HELL No IT didn't. !!
    I'd Pawn you too but I could just reach in the crack of my couch.... for 50 cents. BITCH!! icon_eek.gif
    You misspelled naw.
  • Lukehiker

    Posts: 161

    Mar 22, 2013 6:39 AM GMT
    Unintended said
    mtguy333 said

    With current technology the best option is to blow up nuclear devices next to the asteroid before it gets anywhere near Earth. That small course change becomes a large course change across a 10 or 20 year period. That is why they want to be able to find them years before they get here. A few months is not enough time to be able to change the path enough not to destroy the Earth with current technology. The best bet is a small course change years ahead of time.


    Read what I wrote again. That may work for a comet; it may not work for a large asteroid. Nuclear devices simply do not work the same in space as on Earth due to the lack of an Atmosphere. Hence, the explosion is all radiation -- no heat and no blast.

    While not impossible, there are serious practical considerations. For example, "near" means something like 20 to 100 meters from the asteroid. Too close and it fractures without course change and too far there is not enough neutron flux to disrupt the asteroid's course.


    Just an FYI, but there are over a dozen different types of asteroids out there; everything from dry(no water/ice) dust balls to snowballs(lots of water), all the way up to solid chunks of iron.

    Further, the current misconceptions about blowing up asteroids are beyond ridiculous; roughly 3/4 of ALL asteroids out there are mostly in the dust ball/snowball categories, with a small, dense core. Similar to how a gas giant forms, the gravity of the larger, denser object attracts many smaller objects, but because the gravity of the larger object isn't enough to heat the material on impact, the result becomes a sand like cloud of material around the central core.

    A nuke detonated against a Dust ball or Snowball type would do two things in quick succession; one, it would instantly melt the loose material around the core into a molten chunk, and two, it would heat the object in such a way that any substances(such as water) in the object that vaporize at those temperatures, would. Now what does all of this sound like? Lava, specifically, lava underwater. The object would be highly porous and brittle; a second explosive(a shaped charge for example) would shatter it into a harmless cloud of debris that would burn up on entry.

    For those objects that are more solid, a shaped charge would shatter it, especially if you hit the object with several at once. The only type that is immune to this is the ones that are mostly metal; however they tend to be massive enough to be easy to detect and have the added advantage of very rarely being put on unpredictable orbits. For all intents and purposes, the solar system is too stable to make these dangerous.

    If you ever see those idiots claiming that blowing up an asteroid is akin to firing a shotgun blast against the Earth, rather than a single bullet, they forget that a shattered asteroid, far enough away, allows the majority of its mass to avoid the target in question; and what they also forget is a smaller object has a larger surface area to mass ratio, which means more of it burns up in the atmosphere.

    I will say one thing for those who are planning the asteroid defense strategies: they are smart, but they forget that over thinking things is often more dangerous than the asteroid in question ever could be.