Austerity got owned. Bye bye republicans :-)

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    Apr 25, 2013 1:53 PM GMT
    http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/04/24/debunked-the-harvard-study-that-republicans-used-to-push-austerity/

    For those of you too lazy to read, the whole austerity movement is being pushed by republicans based on this study from Reinhart and Rogoff. The idea is that when a countries debt exceeds 90% of gdp then it slows economic growth.

    However, as a Graduate student points out, the way they acheived this data is flawed. For one, they selectively excluded years where there was 90% debt to gpd and average growth, used fishy weighing averages, and excluded about 5 countries from a "spreadsheet error."

    The best part about it? It is the entire republican parties stance on economics. And it was owned, by a graduate student!!

    Herp De Derp!!
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    Apr 25, 2013 2:24 PM GMT
    topathlete saidThere is a good lesson here to look at multiple sources and not base an opinion solely on a highly ideological source. The significance of the error led to an extreme position by MSNBC. Any surprise here?

    http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/17/news/economy/debt-deficits/index.html

    The Reinhart/Rogoff research concluded that when a country's gross debt exceeds 90% of GDP, "median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more."

    That finding was flawed, according to UMass Amherst economists Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash and Robert Pollin.

    But when they replicated the 2010 analysis after correcting for the alleged flaws, they too found that average economic growth was lower when countries' gross debt topped 90% of GDP -- just not as low as what Reinhart and Rogoff originally concluded. (The Amherst paper, which has not been reviewed or published, does not consider Reinhart and Rogoff's updated numbers from 2012.)

    In response, Reinhart and Rogoff disputed two of the paper's three critiques concerning methodology. They conceded a third point, a "coding error," but argued it did not change the thrust of their findings.

    ------

    Another non-ideological report on this is in the Washington Post, including replies from the study authors.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/04/16/is-the-best-evidence-for-austerity-based-on-an-excel-spreadsheet-error/


    That report says the exact same thing. It doesnt change the fact, conservativesccan't get their facts straight. And for this to happen after the election debacle is just, well, sad for them!
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    Apr 25, 2013 2:42 PM GMT
    Worse for Republicans is that The Debt is already shrinking thus ruining their only talking point.
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    Apr 25, 2013 4:43 PM GMT
    blazerblue saidWorse for Republicans is that The Debt is already shrinking thus ruining their only talking point.


    Oh really? Exactly what you universe do you live in?
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    Apr 25, 2013 5:32 PM GMT
    The Universe shared by The Wall Street Journal.

    Budget Deficit Is Shrinking – a Lot - Real Time Economics - WSJ

    The federal budget deficit: It’s shrinking.

    Lost in the chatter about President Barack Obama’s behind-schedule delivery of his annual budget was this word from the U.S. Treasury:
    The federal deficit for the first six months of the fiscal year (October 2012-March 2013) was $600 billion, a whole lot less than the $779 billion recorded for the same months of the previous year. Revenues are running 12.5% ahead of last year; outlays are running 2.5% below last year.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/04/11/budget-deficit-is-shrinking/

    "What’s going on? The economy is getting better, and that means more wages and profits to tax and less spending on programs such as unemployment compensation. Meanwhile, Congress and the president have raised taxes — both income and payroll taxes — and put some caps on spending."
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    Apr 25, 2013 5:39 PM GMT
    Fox News, online, reports on the shrinking deficit.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/02/12/january-surplus-shrinks-2013-us-budget-deficit/

    "For the entire year the Congressional Budget Office is forecasting the deficit will total $845 billion. If correct, that would be first time government hasn't run an annual deficit in excess of $1 trillion since 2008


    YES, you read it on FOX.

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    Apr 25, 2013 5:41 PM GMT
    Austerity isn't really working for Britain. While the US has been enjoying growth, austerity Britain has been bumping along the bottom. Even the IMF are getting worried and have started to consider whether austerity may be doing more harm than good for the UK economy.

    UK_vs_US_post-crisis_GDP.png
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    Apr 25, 2013 5:42 PM GMT
    FOX NEWS and New York Times join the conspiracy.

    "The Incredible Shrinking Budget Deficit
    By ANNIE LOWREY
    For four years, during and in the wake of the recession, the federal budget deficit ballooned to more than $1 trillion. But because of belt-tightening in Washington and a strengthening economy, it has started shrinking — and fast."

    http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/22/the-incredible-shrinking-budget-deficit/?partner=rss&emc=rss

  • GQjock

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    Apr 26, 2013 6:31 PM GMT
    Austerity ...... is going to go into the trash heap that is republican politics
    But for some reason there are a certain number of us who really LIKE to dumpster dive

    When an economy is in recession ............... EVERY SINGLE TIME even when there had been a republican President the Government kick started the economy by pouring in money ... and sometimes with increasing taxes
    Yes Virginia that's even under the Great Alzheimer man himself
    Cause he did both BIG TIME

    After the Great depression the republicans tried the same tactics and cut spending leaving it to Roosevelt to change course and increase Government spending to ease the downturn

    Europe after trying their damnedest to try the Austerity way is turning around and throwing out the austerity pushers

    Never worked ... does NOT work and never will you don't cut spending by the Government during a recession
    It only lengthens the recovery and causes more hardship
    But a republican monkey wrench in the works sure keeps the idiots happy
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    Apr 26, 2013 6:55 PM GMT
    topathlete saidThe term austerity is bandied about as if it is a specific policy or level of spending. It is like dieting. If you were stuffing yourself and getting fat, most people would suggest some form of dieting, along with exercise if you were able. You could disregard their suggestions looking to folks who went on extreme diets and starved themselves to death. Then you could decide to keep your level of eating and completely disregard all suggestions.

    Makes as much sense as the austerity comments.


    Dieting is a good analogy.

    The Republicans took the starvation approach of austerity without any concern for the overall health of the economy.

    The Obama administration chose the moderate plan and IT'S WORKING:

    The Deficit Chart That Should Embarrass Budget Hawks

    Read More At Investor's Business Daily: http://news.investors.com/blogs-capital-hill/021213-644063-chart-should-embarrass-deficit-hawks.htm#ixzz2Rb56Rb2f
    Follow us: @IBDinvestors on Twitter | InvestorsBusinessDaily on Facebook

    "Here's a pretty important fact that virtually everyone in Washington seems oblivious to: The federal deficit has never fallen as fast as it's falling now without a coincident recession."

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    Apr 26, 2013 7:15 PM GMT
    http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/how-much-unemployment-was-caused-by-reinhart-and-rogoffs-arithmetic-mistake