OMG!!! UNBELIEVABLE NEW POLLS FOR OBAMA.... UP EVEN 10 POINTS IN INDIANA

  • HndsmKansan

    Posts: 16311

    Oct 23, 2008 8:35 PM GMT
    Double Digits in every state in the upper midwest (even Indiana).. 29 points in his home state of Illinois. Its all just amazing.



    A plethora of polls

    Oct. 23: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray offers his first read on the Midwest battleground polls showing huge leads for Democrat Barack Obama.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/vp/27336668#27336668



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    Oct 23, 2008 8:37 PM GMT
    and in yet another poll:

    AP presidential poll: Race tightens in final weeks
    By LIZ SIDOTI – 18 hours ago

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

    The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

    Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

    The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.

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    Oct 23, 2008 9:32 PM GMT
    The AP poll got lots of attention yesterday even though other polls showed a much wider spread. It's in the best interest of the media to make the race look tight. Otherwise, it's not news.
  • coolarmydude

    Posts: 9190

    Oct 23, 2008 10:28 PM GMT
    Yesterday, I was looking at the electoral map and my eyes bugged out at the potential landslide for Democrats in both Houses of Congress. Of course, as both sides prove, they'll astound us with new scandals that will make things swiiiiiiinnggg back to the Republicans.
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    Oct 23, 2008 10:50 PM GMT
    I can't find the source article I read earlier regarding the Associated Press-GfK poll. But apparently different polls have different metrics for determining "likely voters", including tossing out those that have never voted before. Given the number of new registered voters and their likely choices, that could explain why that is skewed in that particular poll.
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    Oct 23, 2008 11:29 PM GMT
    How many of these polls survey people who have land lines with listed phone numbers and who answer even if they don't recognize who is calling?

    Or as I like to call it, the "lonely shut-in" demographic.

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    Oct 24, 2008 12:01 AM GMT
    XRuggerATX saidHow many of these polls survey people who have land lines with listed phone numbers and who answer even if they don't recognize who is calling?

    Or as I like to call it, the "lonely shut-in" demographic.

    I finally found this article. It's a good layman's explanation of polling practices and why some are different. And yes, it includes cell phone-only users.
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27339545/

    BTW--just saw Scott McClelland (Bush Press Secretary) said he's voting for Obama.
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    Oct 24, 2008 12:13 AM GMT
    1969er said
    XRuggerATX saidHow many of these polls survey people who have land lines with listed phone numbers and who answer even if they don't recognize who is calling?

    Or as I like to call it, the "lonely shut-in" demographic.

    I finally found this article. It's a good layman's explanation of polling practices and why some are different. And yes, it includes cell phone-only users.
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27339545/


    As I suspected they still rely heavily on land lines, although more polls are attempting to include cell phone users in the mix. That said, I am actually surprised at how little this demographic is emphasized.

    So I'm concluding that these polls are still heavily skewed towards the "lonely shut-in" demographic.

    Still, thanks to 1969er for the informative article.
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    Oct 24, 2008 12:20 AM GMT
    Here's another question regarding Polling:
    This year started a big expansion of advanced voting, which I heavily favor (but not prior to 4 weeks before the election day--just IMO). I don't know if polls are currently taking into account those that already voted. If the trend expands again next time, and "already voted" people are included in polls, those polls will be less likely to shift, which might actually affect voter behavior. Maybe it's not unlike the influence the East Coast state's results has on the West Coast states. dunno...just a thought.
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    Oct 24, 2008 12:21 AM GMT
    I think it is important not to get complacent. This is not a shoo-in and I still worry about people in the polls who said they'd vote for Obama experiencing the "Bradley" effect....suddenly realizing they are voting for a black man and letting a racist impulse direct their fingers to McCain.

    That's got to be a much less significant factor these days then back in the California election (Deukmejian vs. Bradley) in the 1980s for which the effect was penned (Bradley had a huge lead in the polls yet lost on election day).

    I think that the time is now for a huge cultural change like this, though. It would be even if McCain-Palin was a viable choice. They're not to me, of course.

    So the time is now for this major change. I wish the election was tomorrow....because I still am worried about John....-1's or Curious's "October Surprise" which to me means some dirty tricks......but maybe everything will be on the up and up.