It’s official: Housing has recovered

  • metta

    Posts: 39112

    May 31, 2013 8:44 PM GMT
    It’s official: Housing has recovered


    Commentary: Tougher credit, rising prices, builder confidence all contribute http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-official-housing-has-recovered-2013-05-30?siteid=nwhwk


    icon_biggrin.gificon_biggrin.gificon_biggrin.gif
  • metta

    Posts: 39112

    May 31, 2013 9:12 PM GMT
    icon_smile.gif I was not happy when the value of my home went below what I paid for it 11 years ago. My home dropped more than 35%-45% in value from the peak to the bottom. But over the last few months, it has increased quite a bit to an estimated to be 17%-25% off it's peak. I knew it dropped too much but I was not expecting it to go back up so quickly.


    I'm finding that Trulia is inaccurate....way off and they don't update very often. Zillow seems to be doing a much better job with estimate, at least for my area.
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    May 31, 2013 9:37 PM GMT
    This is why you lefties shouldn't gloat too much about 43rds perceived failures. We're rapidly creating another bubble, which will cause another collapse not all that dissimilar from 2008 and will likely happen the last year of 44's administration.

    We're already there in CRE with unsustainable CAP rates. The spread between CAPs of class A absolute net properties and interest rates is only about 150 basis points. All we need is a rapid run-up in rates and kaboom ..... again. One can buy (if they're nuts enough) a net leased McDonalds for under a 4 CAP and that's on a fukin ground lease or a corporate 7-11 at a 5 CAP. This kind of pricing is not sustainable.

    Most of this debt is out there on 5 year balloons. Just wait until refi time and see what happens.
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    May 31, 2013 9:43 PM GMT
    metta8 saidIt’s official: Housing has recovered


    Commentary: Tougher credit, rising prices, builder confidence all contribute http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-official-housing-has-recovered-2013-05-30?siteid=nwhwk


    icon_biggrin.gificon_biggrin.gificon_biggrin.gif

    By coincidence we swung by our friends' house today, on the way back from lunch at a lovely French restaurant (hubby had a marvelous Salad Niçoise and me a remarkable ginger curry mussels dish, unexpected there - sorry, had to throw that in, too lovely not to mention).

    Well the realtor half of the couple was home finishing his own lunch (a regional manager with Coldwell Banker), and he told us the South Florida housing market is really hot, he's closing on properties everywhere.

    So while that's a micro-view, nevertheless South Florida was hit hard by the Bush housing meltdown in 2007, and so I would think that's a very good sign for the nation overall. icon_biggrin.gif
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    May 31, 2013 9:45 PM GMT
    ART_DECO said
    metta8 saidIt’s official: Housing has recovered


    Commentary: Tougher credit, rising prices, builder confidence all contribute http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-official-housing-has-recovered-2013-05-30?siteid=nwhwk


    icon_biggrin.gificon_biggrin.gificon_biggrin.gif

    By coincidence we swung by our friends' house today, on the way back from lunch at a lovely French restaurant (hubby had a marvelous Salad Niçoise and me a remarkable ginger curry mussels dish, unexpected there - sorry, had to throw that in, too lovely not to mention).

    Well the realtor half of the couple was home finishing his own lunch (a regional manager with Coldwell Banker), and he told us the South Florida housing market is really hot, he's closing on properties everywhere.

    So while that's a micro-view, nevertheless South Florida was hit hard by the Bush housing meltdown in 2007, and so I would think that's a very good sign for the nation overall. icon_biggrin.gif


    And in 2017 we'll be talking about the Obama meltdown. You can almost count on it.
  • metta

    Posts: 39112

    May 31, 2013 9:58 PM GMT
    ^
    But aren't the increases because of low interest rates and lack of inventory on the market? The increasing in pricing will help people be able to put their homes on the market. I don't think it is because of bad loans. In fact, I have heard that it is more difficult to get a loan right now.

    The people that I have seen buying are people that have a lot of cash to put down.
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    May 31, 2013 10:03 PM GMT
    metta8 said^
    But aren't the increases because of low interest rates and lack of inventory on the market? The increasing in pricing will help people be able to put their homes on the market. I don't think it is because of bad loans. In fact, I have heard that it is more difficult to get a loan right now.

    The people that I have seen buying are people that have a lot of cash to put down.


    "increases because of low interest rates and lack of inventory on the market? "

    How is that different from 2004 - 2006? Liar loans are even coming back. It's not as loose yet as the last boom, but much more so than even six months ago. This time, however, it might be CRE that busts first.
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    May 31, 2013 10:06 PM GMT
    metta8 said^
    But aren't the increases because of low interest rates and lack of inventory on the market? The increasing in pricing will help people be able to put their homes on the market. I don't think it is because of bad loans. In fact, I have heard that it is more difficult to get a loan right now.

    The people that I have seen buying are people that have a lot of cash to put down.


    From someone intimately involved in the secondary housing finance market: yes. I'm not saying it couldn't happen again but we are nowhere NEAR the finance fluff that was going on in 2006-2007.

    If there is another burst bubble fluffly residential real estate loans won't be the genesis, at least not based on things today. The private MBS markets are just starting to have movement again, and deals are vastly simpler and more conservative than they were then.
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    May 31, 2013 10:09 PM GMT
    showme said
    metta8 said^
    But aren't the increases because of low interest rates and lack of inventory on the market? The increasing in pricing will help people be able to put their homes on the market. I don't think it is because of bad loans. In fact, I have heard that it is more difficult to get a loan right now.

    The people that I have seen buying are people that have a lot of cash to put down.


    From someone intimately involved in the secondary housing finance market: yes. I'm not saying it couldn't happen again but we are nowhere NEAR the finance fluff that was going on in 2006-2007.

    If there is another burst bubble fluffly residential real estate loans won't be the genesis, at least not based on things today. The private MBS markets are just starting to have movement again, and deals are vastly simpler and more conservative than they were then.


    We're sitting at 2004-2005 right now. I think it will be CRE first this time not residential IMO
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    May 31, 2013 10:13 PM GMT
    freedomisntfree said
    showme said
    metta8 said^
    But aren't the increases because of low interest rates and lack of inventory on the market? The increasing in pricing will help people be able to put their homes on the market. I don't think it is because of bad loans. In fact, I have heard that it is more difficult to get a loan right now.

    The people that I have seen buying are people that have a lot of cash to put down.


    From someone intimately involved in the secondary housing finance market: yes. I'm not saying it couldn't happen again but we are nowhere NEAR the finance fluff that was going on in 2006-2007.

    If there is another burst bubble fluffly residential real estate loans won't be the genesis, at least not based on things today. The private MBS markets are just starting to have movement again, and deals are vastly simpler and more conservative than they were then.


    We're sitting at 2004-2005 right now. I think it will be CRE first this time not residential IMO


    I don't think we're even at 2004-2005 right how in ressie world. People are only now starting to do private securitizations again and they have musch stronger rep/warranty protections, simple structures, etc. Also lots of new regs and regulatory overhang keeping things tamped down (ability to repay/Reg. AB II/risk retention etc.) But things move fast.
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    May 31, 2013 10:13 PM GMT
    Generally 12 -14 years peak to peak and trough to trough. Trigger unknown at this point, but it will happen again.
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    May 31, 2013 10:17 PM GMT
    showme said
    freedomisntfree said
    showme said
    metta8 said^
    But aren't the increases because of low interest rates and lack of inventory on the market? The increasing in pricing will help people be able to put their homes on the market. I don't think it is because of bad loans. In fact, I have heard that it is more difficult to get a loan right now.

    The people that I have seen buying are people that have a lot of cash to put down.


    From someone intimately involved in the secondary housing finance market: yes. I'm not saying it couldn't happen again but we are nowhere NEAR the finance fluff that was going on in 2006-2007.

    If there is another burst bubble fluffly residential real estate loans won't be the genesis, at least not based on things today. The private MBS markets are just starting to have movement again, and deals are vastly simpler and more conservative than they were then.


    We're sitting at 2004-2005 right now. I think it will be CRE first this time not residential IMO


    I don't think we're even at 2004-2005 right how in ressie world. People are only now starting to do private securitizations again and they have musch stronger rep/warranty protections, simple structures, etc. Also lots of new regs and regulatory overhang keeping things tamped down (ability to repay/Reg. AB II/risk retention etc.) But things move fast.


    And it was really the craziness of 2005 to 2007 that got the bust movin fast. Residential preceded CRE by 6 - 9 months last time. This time I think it will be reversed.

    I do think we have successfully reigned appraisers in for the long term. I don't see the silliness returning there yet.
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    May 31, 2013 10:28 PM GMT
    freedomisntfree said
    And in 2017 we'll be talking about the Obama meltdown. You can almost count on it.

    Why wait? You Righties were already calling it the Obama Meltdown in 2009, within a couple of months of him taking office. Don't you remember the southbeach1500 posts here, saying Obama had wrecked the economy, responsible for the pre-existing economic crisis, before he'd even been in the White House for half a year? I don't recall you disputing those lunatic assertions, as I and others did.

    But you're correct, Right Wingers will be claiming an Obama meltdown, whether there is one or not. They've done it before without evidence, and they'll do it again. What they haven't yet acknowledged, not likely ever will, is that there was a Bush meltdown.

    What do you think? Was there a Bush meltdown or not?
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    May 31, 2013 10:32 PM GMT
    Art Deco said

    ", on the way back from lunch at a lovely French restaurant (hubby had a marvelous Salad Niçoise and me a remarkable ginger curry mussels dish, unexpected there - sorry, had to throw that in, too lovely not to mention).

    Well the realtor half of the couple was home finishing his own lunch
    (a regional manager with Coldwell Banker), and he told us the South Florida housing market is really hot, he's closing on properties everywhere."

    I'm glad your realtor friend is having such success but one question still remains,

    WHAT WAS HE HAVING FOR LUNCH?
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    May 31, 2013 10:35 PM GMT
    blazerblue saidArt Deco said

    ", on the way back from lunch at a lovely French restaurant (hubby had a marvelous Salad Niçoise and me a remarkable ginger curry mussels dish, unexpected there - sorry, had to throw that in, too lovely not to mention).

    Well the realtor half of the couple was home finishing his own lunch
    (a regional manager with Coldwell Banker), and he told us the South Florida housing market is really hot, he's closing on properties everywhere."

    I'm glad your realtor friend is having such success but one question still remains,

    WHAT WAS HE HAVING FOR LUNCH?

    He had finished just as we walked in, so I don't know, we went into the sitting room. But I'm positive it couldn't have been as FABULOUS as ours! icon_wink.gif
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    May 31, 2013 11:14 PM GMT
    Art, while everyone appreciates a FABULOUS lunch review, I wonder if you'd consider placing your little word feasts in forums devoted to food and dining.

    In this particular forum your digression won't receive the rich appreciation it deserves..

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    May 31, 2013 11:22 PM GMT
    blazerblue saidArt, while everyone appreciates a FABULOUS lunch review, I wonder if you'd consider placing your little word feasts in forums devoted to food and dining.

    In this particular forum your digression won't receive the rich appreciation it deserves..

    Oh, PUH-LEEZE! It was just a tongue-in-cheek side comment, the main point undiminished - that the South Florida housing market, one of the worst hit during the Bush Recession, is bouncing back. YAY!!! icon_biggrin.gif

    Come on, I was just having some silly fun, poking fun at myself. And all true, we really were just coming back from that French restaurant. Lighten up, you'd think you were as old a crusty curmudgeon as me. icon_rolleyes.gif
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    Jun 01, 2013 12:07 AM GMT
    ART_DECO said
    freedomisntfree said
    And in 2017 we'll be talking about the Obama meltdown. You can almost count on it.

    Why wait? You Righties were already calling it the Obama Meltdown in 2009, within a couple of months of him taking office. Don't you remember the southbeach1500 posts here, saying Obama had wrecked the economy, responsible for the pre-existing economic crisis, before he'd even been in the White House for half a year? I don't recall you disputing those lunatic assertions, as I and others did.

    But you're correct, Right Wingers will be claiming an Obama meltdown, whether there is one or not. They've done it before without evidence, and they'll do it again. What they haven't yet acknowledged, not likely ever will, is that there was a Bush meltdown.

    What do you think? Was there a Bush meltdown or not?


    About 12 -14 year peak to peak, trough to trough. Causes may vary, but it will happen again just as it's happened throughout our history.

    "I don't recall you disputing those lunatic assertions, as I and others did"

    I sure didn't since I wasn't here until two years later.

    EDIT: and btw, did you know Bush (43) was responsible for the CRA (passed in 1977) ?






    /sarc
  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Jun 01, 2013 1:32 AM GMT
    The conversaposse here on RJ will deny anything, any good news even remotely connected with the Democrats and President Obama.



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    Jun 01, 2013 2:26 AM GMT
    I can actually talk to freedomisntfree about something without getting pissed off. icon_biggrin.gif
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    Jun 01, 2013 2:54 AM GMT
    showme saidI can actually talk to freedomisntfree about something without getting pissed off. icon_biggrin.gif


    And all because you don't resort to name calling, ad hominem attacks or personal attacks. That enables us to disagree and discuss. Also enables us to reach an understanding, resolve a misunderstanding or agree to disagree. I do wish others would learn to do the same.
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    Jun 01, 2013 3:09 AM GMT
    freedomisntfree said
    EDIT: and btw, did you know Bush (43) was responsible for the CRA (passed in 1977)?

    Bush 43 was still doing drugs in 1977, his Maine driver's license suspended for DUI until 1978. And you can't mean 41, because in 1977 he was the Director of the CIA. Would you care to restate that?
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    Jun 01, 2013 3:16 AM GMT
    ART_DECO said
    freedomisntfree said
    EDIT: and btw, did you know Bush (43) was responsible for the CRA (passed in 1977)?

    Bush 43 was still doing drugs in 1977, his Maine driver's license suspended for DUI until 1978. And you can't mean 41, because in 1977 he was the Director of the CIA. Would you care to restate that?


    No I would not. Scroll way down to the bottom of my post and you'll get your answer.
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    Jun 01, 2013 3:23 AM GMT
    freedomisntfree said
    ART_DECO said
    freedomisntfree said
    EDIT: and btw, did you know Bush (43) was responsible for the CRA (passed in 1977)?

    Bush 43 was still doing drugs in 1977, his Maine driver's license suspended for DUI until 1978. And you can't mean 41, because in 1977 he was the Director of the CIA. Would you care to restate that?


    No I would not. Scroll way down to the bottom of my post and you'll get your answer.

    If /sarc is supposed to mean sarcasm it's certainly of the most oblique order. Unless you mean what Republicans did to CRA during the Bush 43 Admin that helped bring about the housing collapse.
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    Jun 01, 2013 4:03 AM GMT
    ART_DECO said
    freedomisntfree said
    ART_DECO said
    freedomisntfree said
    EDIT: and btw, did you know Bush (43) was responsible for the CRA (passed in 1977)?

    Bush 43 was still doing drugs in 1977, his Maine driver's license suspended for DUI until 1978. And you can't mean 41, because in 1977 he was the Director of the CIA. Would you care to restate that?


    No I would not. Scroll way down to the bottom of my post and you'll get your answer.

    If /sarc is supposed to mean sarcasm it's certainly of the most oblique order. Unless you mean what Republicans did to CRA during the Bush 43 Admin that helped bring about the housing collapse.


    "If /sarc is supposed to mean sarcasm it's certainly of the most oblique order."

    thanks

    "Unless you mean what Republicans did to CRA during the Bush 43 Admin that helped bring about the housing collapse"

    A little clueless maybe (hopefully) or just so blinded by hate that you cannot see reality?

    PLENTY to blame to go around, and primary all those millions of home owners using that 'equity' as an ATM.


    "because in 1977 he was the Director of the CIA"

    And one more wee little thing. '41' was not director of the CIA when the CRA was passed (not that it made any difference one way or another) or after January 20th 1977 (Inauguration day for James Earl Carter)