Why Is The Smart Money Suddenly Getting Out Of Stocks And Real Estate?

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    May 31, 2013 9:29 PM GMT
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-31/why-smart-money-suddenly-getting-out-stocks-and-real-estate
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    May 31, 2013 9:39 PM GMT
    http://www.realjock.com/gayforums/3227522

    What I just wrote. It's coming again.

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    May 31, 2013 9:41 PM GMT
    freedomisntfree saidhttp://www.realjock.com/gayforums/3227522

    What I just wrote. It's coming again.



    What's remarkable is that there are actually those who think that the issues from the financial crisis were resolved...
  • jock_1

    Posts: 1491

    May 31, 2013 9:54 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    freedomisntfree saidhttp://www.realjock.com/gayforums/3227522

    What I just wrote. It's coming again.



    What's remarkable is that there are actually those who think that the issues from the financial crisis were resolved...


    Nope, far from it. If you are not already protected with your stocks, you better be soon. The artificial cash pump known as the fed is going to stop pretty soon.
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    May 31, 2013 9:55 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    freedomisntfree saidhttp://www.realjock.com/gayforums/3227522

    What I just wrote. It's coming again.



    What's remarkable is that there are actually those who think that the issues from the financial crisis were resolved...


    Nope ... nuttin really. The recipe is still there and almost done. QE is creating a bubble that's going to put 2008 to shame. Hate to say it, but they need to be jacking rates now.
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    May 31, 2013 10:02 PM GMT
    freedomisntfree said
    riddler78 said
    freedomisntfree saidhttp://www.realjock.com/gayforums/3227522

    What I just wrote. It's coming again.



    What's remarkable is that there are actually those who think that the issues from the financial crisis were resolved...


    Nope ... nuttin really. The recipe is still there and almost done. QE is creating a bubble that's going to put 2008 to shame. Hate to say it, but they need to be jacking rates now.


    They're worried about how fragile the economy is - and the metrics don't yet show an issue with inflation.
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    May 31, 2013 10:06 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    freedomisntfree said
    riddler78 said
    freedomisntfree saidhttp://www.realjock.com/gayforums/3227522

    What I just wrote. It's coming again.



    What's remarkable is that there are actually those who think that the issues from the financial crisis were resolved...


    Nope ... nuttin really. The recipe is still there and almost done. QE is creating a bubble that's going to put 2008 to shame. Hate to say it, but they need to be jacking rates now.


    They're worried about how fragile the economy is - and the metrics don't yet show an issue with inflation.


    We're seeing plenty of stooopid on the CRE side. Just wait until rates return to 'normal' and I don't mean Jimmy Carter era rates. Even 7% will bust this wide open. They need to start gradually slowly increase rates now.
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    May 31, 2013 10:08 PM GMT
    "...just taking his profits and running. Financial stocks have been on a tremendous run and that run is going to end at some point. Smart investors lock in their profits while they still can.

    Is there a reason why the smart money is suddenly getting out of stocks and real estate?

    It could just be that the insiders are simply responding to market dynamics and that many of them are just seeking to lock in their profits."

    Are the markets due for a correction? Yes, however it will be a short-term , if rather severe (2-2500 points), stock drubbing. The US markets are simply too enticing to investors, domestic and foreign.

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    May 31, 2013 10:14 PM GMT
    tailgater_3 said"...just taking his profits and running. Financial stocks have been on a tremendous run and that run is going to end at some point. Smart investors lock in their profits while they still can.

    Is there a reason why the smart money is suddenly getting out of stocks and real estate?

    It could just be that the insiders are simply responding to market dynamics and that many of them are just seeking to lock in their profits."

    Are the markets due for a correction? Yes, however it will be a short-term , if rather severe (2-2500 points), stock drubbing. The US markets are simply too enticing to investors, domestic and foreign.



    So you think that the issues that resulted in the financial crisis - ie mortgages and bad debt have been resolved?
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    May 31, 2013 10:21 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    tailgater_3 said"...just taking his profits and running. Financial stocks have been on a tremendous run and that run is going to end at some point. Smart investors lock in their profits while they still can.

    Is there a reason why the smart money is suddenly getting out of stocks and real estate?

    It could just be that the insiders are simply responding to market dynamics and that many of them are just seeking to lock in their profits."

    Are the markets due for a correction? Yes, however it will be a short-term , if rather severe (2-2500 points), stock drubbing. The US markets are simply too enticing to investors, domestic and foreign.



    So you think that the issues that resulted in the financial crisis - ie mortgages and bad debt have been resolved?


    The only long term change I see are are appraisers, but some banks are going as far as 50 years ams on a 10 year fixed. That leaves a big balloon out there at the end of ten years. That's gonna blow up again.
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    May 31, 2013 10:22 PM GMT
    The author does not directly address those issues. My comments are on the author's assumptions, predictions, and assertions. And, of course, my own.
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    May 31, 2013 10:26 PM GMT
    tailgater_3 saidThe author does not directly address those issues. My comments are on the author's assumptions, predictions, and assertions. And, of course, my own.


    So again, I'm asking if you believe the previous issues have been resolved.
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    May 31, 2013 10:32 PM GMT
    All indicators are that the US economy mutated to absorb these factors.
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    May 31, 2013 10:32 PM GMT
    More here on what's happening in Florida - it's incredible that there are those who are still speculating - but that's sort of what happens in unsustainably low interest rate environments:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-20/what-could-possibly-go-wrong-here
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    May 31, 2013 10:33 PM GMT
    tailgater_3 saidAll indicators are that the US economy mutated to absorb these factors.


    I'm curious - what do you suppose those factors are?
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    Jun 01, 2013 3:12 AM GMT
    just fyi - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/brooklyn-to-california-bubble-threat-grows-in-housing.html
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    Jun 01, 2013 3:19 AM GMT
    riddler78 saidjust fyi - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/brooklyn-to-california-bubble-threat-grows-in-housing.html


    I will guarantee you that it WILL happen again and for pretty close to the same reasons.
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    Jun 01, 2013 2:55 PM GMT
    freedomisntfree said
    riddler78 saidjust fyi - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-16/brooklyn-to-california-bubble-threat-grows-in-housing.html


    I will guarantee you that it WILL happen again and for pretty close to the same reasons.


    Of course there will be those who think that those of us who believe these things just want the US to fail - which is particularly bizarre as they advocate self destructive and unsustainable policies.
  • conservativej...

    Posts: 2465

    Jun 01, 2013 10:08 PM GMT
    I suppose I could pontificate but I will not start down that path. The simple fact is we live in a day and age when an attempt to debate based upon facts in an Internet venue such as RealJock.com is pointless. I am more prone to post something in these forums and simply walk away allowing the usual flack to occur, with the usual liberal geniuses of RJ ranting away.

    The simple fact is each of us as individuals can and should make our own decisions as to where and how we place assets in markets, real estate, or whatever. I must say it is extraordinarily sad that those Americans who see the hand-writing-on-the-wall are unfortunately bound to the political reality of the nut ball crowd that has so much control over so many things government, the IRS being a perfect example.

    It is obvious to some that the current U.S. markets, primarily NASDAQ and NYSE shares are puffed up at illogical prices. Look at Sears. It has begun to fall but saw a 40 percent or so rise in the last twelve months. Sears is a company by the way that continues to lose money, not earn money. Odd, that this titan of the past is based in ... Chicago.

    Also keep in mind that Government Motors, the former GM, continues to be propped up by cash from Uncle Sam in the form of support for Ally financial nd a government guarantee of the residual value on leased vehicles. Americans, you are supporting those GM profits out of pocket. GM will become the pattern I am afraid as Liberal America moves forward. Some would say however it is actually moving backwards.

    You make your choice.


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    Jun 01, 2013 11:18 PM GMT
    conservativejock saidI suppose I could pontificate but I will not start down that path. The simple fact is we live in a day and age when an attempt to debate based upon facts in an Internet venue such as RealJock.com is pointless. I am more prone to post something in these forums and simply walk away allowing the usual flack to occur, with the usual liberal geniuses of RJ ranting away.

    The simple fact is each of us as individuals can and should make our own decisions as to where and how we place assets in markets, real estate, or whatever. I must say it is extraordinarily sad that those Americans who see the hand-writing-on-the-wall are unfortunately bound to the political reality of the nut ball crowd that has so much control over so many things government, the IRS being a perfect example.

    It is obvious to some that the current U.S. markets, primarily NASDAQ and NYSE shares are puffed up at illogical prices. Look at Sears. It has begun to fall but saw a 40 percent or so rise in the last twelve months. Sears is a company by the way that continues to lose money, not earn money. Odd, that this titan of the past is based in ... Chicago.

    Also keep in mind that Government Motors, the former GM, continues to be propped up by cash from Uncle Sam in the form of support for Ally financial nd a government guarantee of the residual value on leased vehicles. Americans, you are supporting those GM profits out of pocket. GM will become the pattern I am afraid as Liberal America moves forward. Some would say however it is actually moving backwards.

    You make your choice.




    And mine is to buy or lease from the home team and Detroit .... especially GM.
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    Jun 01, 2013 11:22 PM GMT
    Aristoshark said
    tailgater_3 said"...just taking his profits and running. Financial stocks have been on a tremendous run and that run is going to end at some point. Smart investors lock in their profits while they still can.

    Is there a reason why the smart money is suddenly getting out of stocks and real estate?

    It could just be that the insiders are simply responding to market dynamics and that many of them are just seeking to lock in their profits."

    Are the markets due for a correction? Yes, however it will be a short-term , if rather severe (2-2500 points), stock drubbing. The US markets are simply too enticing to investors, domestic and foreign.


    The real point is that the listed corporations' profits come less and less from uS domestic markets. The stock market relflects the enormous amount of money that corporations are making right now, in large part due to their having depressed workers' wages in the US and abroad.

    Of course, the Ridiot thinks this is a good thing. That's why he is so repugnant. Well, that and 900 other reasons.


    You might otherwise be credible if it weren't for the fact that your description is a complete misrepresentation of what I've posted, noted and argued. Stock markets reflect the fact there's a significant amount of cash sloshing about in the markets because the US government has chosen to print money - how sustainable is that?

    On the second point specifically on foreign profits, not only is it factually wrong - there are certainly some companies that benefit from this, but it's not because of wages but because of the way they've chosen to structure sales and production leaving the US out of the equation entirely because of its high tax and regulatory environment. Morons like you who have little modern understanding of markets seem to think that it's possible for governments to tax and spend themselves to prosperity - little wonder you were only ever a trader.
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    Jun 02, 2013 6:46 AM GMT
    The housing market is only heating in up in certain locales. The article you posted above provides limited anecdotal evidence. Vide infra the articles to view composite data. One even explains, step-by-step, why the chicken little's will not be hit by chunks of sky.

    Do I think the PLR needs raising? Yes. I think we are in danger of inflation rearing it's ugly head in the very near future. This could be offset by the impending housing busts in Canada, the UK, and Australia.

    Other more important factors to watch are: consumer confidence/spending, personal savings, how fast the debt continues to shrink (at the current rate it should be paid off in four years), and (this will surprise many) what the immigration bill looks like WHEN passed.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/05/28/dont-believe-new-housing-bubble-hype/

    http://www.cjr.org/the_audit/its_not_another_housing_bubble.php

    http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/07/201272319526711103.html

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-04-29/the-federal-debt-is-dot-dot-dot-shrinking
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    Jun 02, 2013 12:08 PM GMT
    tailgater_3 saidThe housing market is only heating in up in certain locales. The article you posted above provides limited anecdotal evidence. Vide infra the articles to view composite data. One even explains, step-by-step, why the chicken little's will not be hit by chunks of sky.

    Do I think the PLR needs raising? Yes. I think we are in danger of inflation rearing it's ugly head in the very near future. This could be offset by the impending housing busts in Canada, the UK, and Australia.

    Other more important factors to watch are: consumer confidence/spending, personal savings, how fast the debt continues to shrink (at the current rate it should be paid off in four years), and (this will surprise many) what the immigration bill looks like WHEN passed.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/05/28/dont-believe-new-housing-bubble-hype/

    http://www.cjr.org/the_audit/its_not_another_housing_bubble.php

    http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/07/201272319526711103.html

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-04-29/the-federal-debt-is-dot-dot-dot-shrinking


    Most, not all, housing markets are recovering nicely. Some typically cyclical markets are becoming overheated. SoCal, Phoenix, etc.

    "how fast the debt continues to shrink (at the current rate it should be paid off in four years), and (this will surprise many"

    It sure would. That would take a $4 trillion per year surplus to pull that off. The INCREASE in the national debt is slowing as the annual deficits comes back down. Projection are that the annual deficits are still 3.7 to 4% of GDP by 2015. Long term avaerage has been in the range of 2.3%

    Also did this in the Bush administration where it was 3.5% of GDP in 2004, and thanks to the increase in revenue due to the tax cuts, came back down to 1.2% of GDP in 2007
    .

  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jun 03, 2013 2:11 PM GMT
    Nope nothing to see here...

    http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/06/03/jpmorgan-dimon-bond-bet/