chefBH saidGood theories. Anything to back them up with though?
Nothing along the lines of sourced research, heheh.
I'm just drawing the conclusions based upon what I see as typical human group behaviour.
Let's arbitrarily select a smaller community, a town called Schmoodunk, NY which is fictionally set in a somewhat left-leaning enclave in New York's upper Hudson Valley with a population of about 12,000 people:
The chance of a murder as a result of hate/bias crime *within the members of that community* would seem likely to be lowered as the town has a plurality of mostly like-minded people, and a greater chance of being caught or being held to account for their actions.
Conversely, another town not too far away is called Deerfuck, NY, and is mostly populated by working class families and a fair number of mooks who think that The Deer Hunter
is the sum of all cinematic greatness for all time. You might even find a chapter of The Flat Earth Club
A hate/bias crime might be slightly more likely to happen there, but most gay boys worth their salt will have moved out of that dump, thereby leaving Deerfuck, NY as a close knit conservative community where everyone snoops into everyone else's shit.
Of course, murder is murder, and a person motivated enough to conduct a premeditated murder is somewhat outside the scope of my hypothesis; but a random hate motivated act of violence (in my opinion) seems more likely in a big city where there are far more many chances for random encounters may result in a hate-filled bigot to lash out at a surplus of available targets.
With 8-9 million people clustered together on a landmass about 20 square miles, it is quite probable that there is an ample supply of people willing to act on their hatred toward LGBT people.
As for my speculation about backlash, consider the possibility that these failed individuals feel powerless to stem the tide of changing public opinion, to say nothing of the momentum for that change maintained by the media and various political action groups.
Whether they are motivated by a grievous misapplication of religion, or so bound by an irrational fear that recognizing the inherent right that LGBT people have to be treated equally under the law as they are - they make a last, weak grab at keeping what little sense of power they feel they have by acting violently.
Unfortunately for us, this has a price paid in blood; unfortunately for them, this will not change the fact that social change is in progress, and that change points to our equality under the law as citizens.
Look to the nations of Africa as the counter-example, especially Nigeria.
There, fear and bigotry are being enshrined into their law. Nations like that see what is happening in the First World nations and as a result, they protect bigotry and hatred and sponsor state-sanctioned hate crimes against their LGBT population.
It is a terrible backlash, and I hope that as a city, and as a state, and ultimately as a republic, we can overcome our natural tendency toward violence as a solution to things we disagree sharply about.