"If You Want To See The Future Of America Just Look At Detroit"

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    Jun 19, 2013 12:29 AM GMT
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-17/rotting-decaying-and-bankrupt-%E2%80%93-if-you-want-see-future-america-just-look-detroit

    Detroit Emergency Manager Kevyn Orr has submitted a proposal that would pay unsecured creditors about 10 cents on the dollar. Similar haircuts would be made to underfunded pension and health benefits for retirees. Orr is hoping that the creditors and the unions that he will be negotiating with will accept this package, but he concedes that there is still a "50-50 chance" that the city of Detroit will be forced to formally file for bankruptcy.
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    Jun 19, 2013 2:09 PM GMT
    Good thing I like Detroit.
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    Jun 19, 2013 2:10 PM GMT
    msuNdc saidGood thing I like Detroit.


    Heh - what's not to like? From the post:

    The following are some facts about Detroit that are absolutely mind-blowing...

    1 - Detroit was once the fourth-largest city in the United States, and in 1960 Detroit had the highest per-capita income in the entire nation.

    2 - Over the past 60 years, the population of Detroit has fallen by 63 percent.

    3 - At this point, approximately 40 percent of all the streetlights in the city don't work.

    4 - Some ambulances in the city of Detroit have been used for so long that they have more than 250,000 miles on them.

    5 - 210 of the 317 public parks in the city of Detroit have been permanently closed down.

    6 - According to the New York Times, there are now approximately 70,000 abandoned buildings in Detroit.

    7 - Approximately one-third of Detroit's 140 square miles is either vacant or derelict.

    8 - Less than half of the residents of Detroit over the age of 16 are working at this point.

    9 - If you can believe it, 60 percent of all children in the city of Detroit are living in poverty.

    10 - According to one very shocking report, 47 percent of the residents of Detroit are functionally illiterate.

    11 - Today, police solve less than 10 percent of the crimes that are committed in Detroit.

    12 - Ten years ago, there were approximately 5,000 police officers in the city of Detroit. Today, there are only about 2,500 and another 100 are scheduled to be eliminated from the force soon.

    13 - Due to budget cutbacks, most police stations in Detroit are now closed to the public for 16 hours a day.

    14 - The murder rate in Detroit is 11 times higher than it is in New York City.

    15 - Crime has gotten so bad in Detroit that even the police are telling people to "enter Detroit at your own risk".

    16 - Right now, the city of Detroit is facing $20 billion in debt and unfunded liabilities. That breaks down to more than $25,000 per resident.

    As Detroit Emergency Manager Kevyn Orr noted last week, it took a very long time for Detroit to get into this condition...
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    Jun 19, 2013 3:01 PM GMT
    Economists are particularly bad at predicting the future. Why should we believe this one is any different?
  • maxferguson

    Posts: 321

    Jun 19, 2013 5:38 PM GMT
    Economists are indeed terrible at predicting the future, and get worse the further out they go. But, because debt repayments are a fixed liability, the size and timing of the cash flows due are known with 100% certainty.

    Rather than making predictions about what certain data points might be in the future (tax revenue, home values, etc...), they can use their knowledge of how different incomes and expenditures relate to each other (fixed/variable, contingent, etc...) and create a fairly accurate depiction of how sensitive the municipal government's solvency was to changes in specific variables. Then, rather than relying on an actual predicted value, they know a range of values that = danger zone and a range of values that are probably safe, and what it takes to be reasonably certain that making the debt payments would be no big deal.

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    Jun 19, 2013 5:51 PM GMT
    If the fundamentalist Christians and Republicans have their way, Uganda would be a closer match to the future of the US.
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    Jun 19, 2013 6:21 PM GMT
    paulflexes saidIf the fundamentalist Christians and Republicans have their way, Uganda would be a closer match to the future of the US.


    How so?
  • maxferguson

    Posts: 321

    Jun 19, 2013 7:00 PM GMT
    freedomisntfree said
    paulflexes saidIf the fundamentalist Christians and Republicans have their way, Uganda would be a closer match to the future of the US.


    How so?


    Uganda sounds a bit like hyperbole icon_razz.gif

    This example may be stretching it, as it wasn't exclusively caused by financial ruin, but it is a prime example of how the scenery can become unrecognizable over time when the underpinnings of a city's reason for being in it's current state change. And that can go either way.

    Consider Tehran, Baghdad and other large Arab urban centres today. Decades ago, they used to be considered global, free, hub-like cities in that part of the world, and now they are in tatters compared to their former glory. They have ravaged by war, changed by a recent shift (last few decades) to emphasize living a more austere and traditional Islamic lifestyle, etc... but in the end, when the footings of a region change, the landscape is sure to follow later on.

    While Detroit may not be facing the stern rule of Ayatollah Khomeini or the prolonged presence of foreign military (or domestic rebellion of a similar scale), times are definitely changing for in Detroit. Considering they are so concentrated in the auto industry and manufacturing, and how rapidly the position of those industries is changing in the U.S., the impact of the financial crisis on home values (especially in Detroit), the moral of the population, etc... It takes a long time to rejuvinate a metropolitan area that size to it's former glory, and without some sort of white swan change in those underpinnings, I'd hazard a guess it gets worse before it gets better icon_sad.gif
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    Jun 19, 2013 8:29 PM GMT
    maxferguson said
    freedomisntfree said
    paulflexes saidIf the fundamentalist Christians and Republicans have their way, Uganda would be a closer match to the future of the US.


    How so?


    Uganda sounds a bit like hyperbole icon_razz.gif

    This example may be stretching it, as it wasn't exclusively caused by financial ruin, but it is a prime example of how the scenery can become unrecognizable over time when the underpinnings of a city's reason for being in it's current state change. And that can go either way.

    Consider Tehran, Baghdad and other large Arab urban centres today. Decades ago, they used to be considered global, free, hub-like cities in that part of the world, and now they are in tatters compared to their former glory. They have ravaged by war, changed by a recent shift (last few decades) to emphasize living a more austere and traditional Islamic lifestyle, etc... but in the end, when the footings of a region change, the landscape is sure to follow later on.

    While Detroit may not be facing the stern rule of Ayatollah Khomeini or the prolonged presence of foreign military (or domestic rebellion of a similar scale), times are definitely changing for in Detroit. Considering they are so concentrated in the auto industry and manufacturing, and how rapidly the position of those industries is changing in the U.S., the impact of the financial crisis on home values (especially in Detroit), the moral of the population, etc... It takes a long time to rejuvinate a metropolitan area that size to it's former glory, and without some sort of white swan change in those underpinnings, I'd hazard a guess it gets worse before it gets better icon_sad.gif


    "Uganda sounds a bit like hyperbole "

    True, given that this is the same RJer who repeatedly threatened to kill Mitt Romney back during the campaign.
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    Jun 19, 2013 8:49 PM GMT
    The facts towards the bottom are what are interesting. Seems to be a partisan affair when it comes to wasting money.

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    Jun 19, 2013 9:28 PM GMT
    It isn't all doom and gloom.

    Glimmers of hope in Detroit
    Despite decades of decline and mismanagement, there are signs of life in Detroit as private sector companies try to rebuild the city. But is it too late?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22803975
  • conservativej...

    Posts: 2465

    Jun 19, 2013 9:55 PM GMT
    Though I agree Riddler, this is one that the liberal audience of RealJock.com will just simply have to learn on their own. In the meantime, those who exemplify success had better increase their assets in whatever way they can. Of course, those assets better not be U.S. dollars.
  • KPinCali

    Posts: 16

    Jun 19, 2013 11:23 PM GMT
    But didn't you know the economy is recovering? icon_rolleyes.gif
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    Jun 19, 2013 11:24 PM GMT
    msuNdc saidThe facts towards the bottom are what are interesting. Seems to be a partisan affair when it comes to wasting money.



    the problem I think is when either party has no competition.
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    Jun 19, 2013 11:33 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    msuNdc saidThe facts towards the bottom are what are interesting. Seems to be a partisan affair when it comes to wasting money.



    the problem I think is when either party has no competition.


    Neither party does. The crazy thing about America is we have such a low approval ratings for Congress yet when they break down approval ratings by district each Congressman has a significantly high approval rating. Incumbents win 90% of the time. As long as we continue to elect the same individuals into congress we will be stuck with the same results.
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    Jun 19, 2013 11:41 PM GMT
    riddler78 said
    msuNdc saidThe facts towards the bottom are what are interesting. Seems to be a partisan affair when it comes to wasting money.



    the problem I think is when either party has no competition.


    big yep to that one
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    Jun 20, 2013 12:09 AM GMT
    msuNdc said
    riddler78 said
    msuNdc saidThe facts towards the bottom are what are interesting. Seems to be a partisan affair when it comes to wasting money.



    the problem I think is when either party has no competition.


    Neither party does. The crazy thing about America is we have such a low approval ratings for Congress yet when they break down approval ratings by district each Congressman has a significantly high approval rating. Incumbents win 90% of the time. As long as we continue to elect the same individuals into congress we will be stuck with the same results.


    You do see swings in power though (e.g. Congress has changed control many a time as has the Executive)... versus say New Orleans, Chicago, or Detroit... Or even California.
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    Jun 20, 2013 12:14 AM GMT
    riddler78 said
    msuNdc said
    riddler78 said
    msuNdc saidThe facts towards the bottom are what are interesting. Seems to be a partisan affair when it comes to wasting money.



    the problem I think is when either party has no competition.


    Neither party does. The crazy thing about America is we have such a low approval ratings for Congress yet when they break down approval ratings by district each Congressman has a significantly high approval rating. Incumbents win 90% of the time. As long as we continue to elect the same individuals into congress we will be stuck with the same results.


    You do see swings in power though (e.g. Congress has changed control many a time as has the Executive)... versus say New Orleans, Chicago, or Detroit... Or even California.


    Yup but all of them have it wrong. Gary Johnson has it right icon_smile.gif
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    Jun 20, 2013 4:33 AM GMT
    riddler78 said
    msuNdc said
    riddler78 said
    msuNdc saidThe facts towards the bottom are what are interesting. Seems to be a partisan affair when it comes to wasting money.



    the problem I think is when either party has no competition.


    Neither party does. The crazy thing about America is we have such a low approval ratings for Congress yet when they break down approval ratings by district each Congressman has a significantly high approval rating. Incumbents win 90% of the time. As long as we continue to elect the same individuals into congress we will be stuck with the same results.


    You do see swings in power though (e.g. Congress has changed control many a time as has the Executive)... versus say New Orleans, Chicago, or Detroit... Or even California.


    We had a Republican mayor in LA not all that long ago .... Richard Riordan
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    Jun 20, 2013 6:54 AM GMT
    you cant compare the "D" with the rest of the country except maybe for its southern counterpart, Mississippi.

    if you know how segregated Michigan is in general you would understand "8 mile road", what happened in the 60's, "white flight" and the bitterness and anger of the black people of the D who basically cant seem to take care of themselves, lack pride in their communities, Detroit black people have a special problem that the rest of african americans around the country don't, ATTITUDE, the white people there have their own ATTITUDE, the "regan democrats" make up the state of Michigan, conservative social progress while fiscally liberal, they will never congeal as a community.

    anyone who wants to know about the real city of Detroit, ask me, born and raised there, although I don't like to tell people that because I hated Detroit and the state of Michigan period, its quite the fucked up scene when you drive past the neighborhood that you grew up in and half the houses are gone, burnt, broken windows, lawns unmowed..etc, ive been around the country to know that this much neighborhood blight only occurs in the city of Detroit, also known by some as Beirut,

    how many of you go back to the place where you grew up, your old house and neighborhood look the same when you were there? your old house worth more than when your parents bought it? Not mine, my old house is barely still standing between to empty homes that look like they are next targets to burn down

    there is an old myth, legend, if you want to call it that, the famous occultist and free mason Aleister Crowley briefly set up shop and recruitment in Detroit in 1919, http://www.mythicdetroit.org/index.php?n=Main.AleisterCrowley, some of us think he put a black magic curse on Detroit after he left or right before, this man brought evil everywhere he went and I do believe this is where the "American Illuminati" originated since he was a mason already, especially him coming from Europe

    southeast Michigan still has some masonic lodges but every city does now, they started in Detroit from Europe and moved around the country, Aleister Crowleys black magic "workings" and followers are well documented.

    scary stuff, its important here that your heart and mind be in the right places, Detroit will never recover



    I had to look this up, sure enough, top row, 2nd from left

    crowley_pepper.jpg

    I never really knew

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    Jun 20, 2013 1:41 PM GMT
    Unintended saidActually, the future of America, if the Tea Party had its way, would very much resemble Russia.

    In some ways, were are already close, especially the wealth gap between the extreme wealthy and the rest...


    Funny, PresentMind/Balancing/JokeTheVote, I would say the exact same thing about the lefties!
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    Jun 20, 2013 2:08 PM GMT
    scruffLA saidyou cant compare the "D" with the rest of the country except maybe for its southern counterpart, Mississippi.

    if you know how segregated Michigan is in general you would understand "8 mile road", what happened in the 60's, "white flight" and the bitterness and anger of the black people of the D who basically cant seem to take care of themselves, lack pride in their communities, Detroit black people have a special problem that the rest of african americans around the country don't, ATTITUDE, the white people there have their own ATTITUDE, the "regan democrats" make up the state of Michigan, conservative social progress while fiscally liberal, they will never congeal as a community.

    anyone who wants to know about the real city of Detroit, ask me, born and raised there, although I don't like to tell people that because I hated Detroit and the state of Michigan period, its quite the fucked up scene when you drive past the neighborhood that you grew up in and half the houses are gone, burnt, broken windows, lawns unmowed..etc, ive been around the country to know that this much neighborhood blight only occurs in the city of Detroit, also known by some as Beirut,

    how many of you go back to the place where you grew up, your old house and neighborhood look the same when you were there? your old house worth more than when your parents bought it? Not mine, my old house is barely still standing between to empty homes that look like they are next targets to burn down

    there is an old myth, legend, if you want to call it that, the famous occultist and free mason Aleister Crowley briefly set up shop and recruitment in Detroit in 1919, http://www.mythicdetroit.org/index.php?n=Main.AleisterCrowley, some of us think he put a black magic curse on Detroit after he left or right before, this man brought evil everywhere he went and I do believe this is where the "American Illuminati" originated since he was a mason already, especially him coming from Europe

    southeast Michigan still has some masonic lodges but every city does now, they started in Detroit from Europe and moved around the country, Aleister Crowleys black magic "workings" and followers are well documented.

    scary stuff, its important here that your heart and mind be in the right places, Detroit will never recover



    I had to look this up, sure enough, top row, 2nd from left

    crowley_pepper.jpg

    I never really knew



    As an eternal optimist, it's hard to lose hope that somehow, someway, Detroit will pull out of this before it's completely gone. I'm in Detroit metro often, but other than NAIAS, I stay north of Baseline Road. It's always for large car events such as Dream Cruise, Fort Street, Eyes on Design, Etc., and you'd be firmly convinced that it's the friendliest large city in the country. I wish them the best!
  • Kazachok

    Posts: 415

    Jun 20, 2013 2:13 PM GMT
    That's probably too harsh.
    Are they trying to say that half of Americans will leave their country?
    I really can't see that happening.
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    Jun 20, 2013 2:21 PM GMT
    Unintended saidActually, the future of America, if the Tea Party had its way, would very much resemble Russia.

    In some ways, were are already close, especially the wealth gap between the extreme wealthy and the rest...


    Again, I feel as if you don't really understand anything about the Tea Partiers and their aims (or even historical context) if you think the end game looks anything like Russia. If anything, the policies as advocated by Democrats and extremist liberals will result more in the impoverishment of everyone than actually improving the poorest.

    Equality of outcomes is irrelevant unless you believe in perpetuating envy and jealousy to achieve whatever political aims you want. Equality of opportunity is far more important / is actually important.
  • Kazachok

    Posts: 415

    Jun 20, 2013 2:25 PM GMT
    Unintended saidActually, the future of America, if the Tea Party had its way, would very much resemble Russia.

    Well if it's oligarchy you're aiming at, I think you've had one for a while now. Actually, most countries do.
    Although, if Russians saw you living like they did in the 1990s they would point and laugh.