US Election Predictions

  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Nov 03, 2008 2:42 PM GMT
    Based on the information on this website http://www.electoral-vote.com/ I am making the following predictions for the US presidential election.

    Electoral College:

    Obama - 364 (wins North Carolina, Missouri but not Indiana, North Dakota or Georgia);

    McCain - 174 (does not win Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia).

    Popular Vote:

    Obama - 66 million;

    McCain - 58 million;

    Other - 2 million.

    Overall number of voters will increase.
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    Nov 03, 2008 2:47 PM GMT
    I want Obama to win big. If he wns (ps...we would ALL win) I will be dancing in the streets with JOY. But I am terrified to feel any happiness yet. I don't want to jinx it and prefer to see it with my own eyes.I don't want to get my hopes up until it happens.
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    Nov 03, 2008 2:51 PM GMT
    SurrealLife saidBased on the information on this website http://www.electoral-vote.com/...


    Dude, you need to upgrade to the electoral vote bliss that is www.fivethirtyeight.com icon_biggrin.gif
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    Nov 03, 2008 2:58 PM GMT
    All the Sunday morning TV news show commentators said about the same thing yesterday:

    Obama wins with a range of 340-370 Electoral College votes.

    Dems gain 8 Senate seats, not enough for a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority.

    Dems gain 24-28 House seats.

    I hope the Senate prediction is wrong, because that 60-vote majority is really essential, to prevent Republicans from again blocking legislation like they've done for the last 2 years.
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    Nov 03, 2008 3:00 PM GMT
    hobronto said
    SurrealLife saidBased on the information on this website http://www.electoral-vote.com/...


    Dude, you need to upgrade to the electoral vote bliss that is www.fivethirtyeight.com icon_biggrin.gif


    That is an interesting website, although I still prefer electoral-vote! Another good one I discovered was http://www.270towin.com/ because of its' easy menu to find results from prior elections.
  • HndsmKansan

    Posts: 16311

    Nov 03, 2008 4:14 PM GMT
    Well I think we did this a while back, but its been long enough ago that we need an update.

    For me .. as follows:

    President Obama 340 electoral votes, McCain 200

    Obama wins Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, N Mexico, Virginia
    Florida (either Missouri, Ohio or N. Carolina), but only 1 of the three.
    Close states: Arizona, Montana, N Dakota, Georgia and Indiana.

    Popular vote Obama 52% McCain 45% Other 3%

    Senate: Pick up 8 seats (still will have to deal with Leiberman)

    House: Dems gain 25 seats.
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    Nov 03, 2008 4:17 PM GMT
    This whole thing is simply a chicken I refuse to count until it's hatched. I just can't - the disappointment would be too immense. icon_neutral.gif
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    Nov 03, 2008 4:22 PM GMT
    hobronto said
    SurrealLife saidBased on the information on this website http://www.electoral-vote.com/...


    Dude, you need to upgrade to the electoral vote bliss that is www.fivethirtyeight.com icon_biggrin.gif


    ZOMG! 538 is teh sex! It is worth reading for the zogby bashing alone, let alone the insanely sophisticated prediction model.
  • HndsmKansan

    Posts: 16311

    Nov 03, 2008 4:38 PM GMT
    What I really want is a landslide... I want the media to be talking about how the whole country rejected the Bush' policies and it be more about a rejection of the direction of the country .....
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    Nov 03, 2008 4:41 PM GMT
    Very interesting number comparisons there at 538 - CBS/New York Times tops the good news side for Obama with a 13% lead, while Fox news shows more hope for mcC showing him behind by only 3%.

    Wild.

    As always it's the college - electoral, not campuses - that counts. Still, like many of you, I hope for a clear popular vote majority to ice it.
  • styrgan

    Posts: 2017

    Nov 03, 2008 4:49 PM GMT
    Obama - 311
    McCain - 227

    Obama takes all Kerry states plus Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa.

    Senate retains Democratic majority with 58 seats by picking up New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, and Alaska.

    Democrats pick up a net of 15-18 seats in the House.

    Republicans pick up North Carolina governorship, and Democrats pick up Missouri. Republicans hold Vermont.
  • swimbikerun

    Posts: 2835

    Nov 03, 2008 5:01 PM GMT
    Ok, I had trouble sleeping the other night thinking about all this. If I'm having trouble sleeping, I can't imagine what the candidates are going through.
    I'm hopeful but I've a sense of foreboding about the election. It sure seems like Obama will get elected but... Karl Rove and his cabal are quite sinister. Will they relinquish things so easily?
    An electoral college win with a popular vote win will hopefully dissuade the lawsuits McCain will file in protest of the results.
    And the conspiracy theorist par of me is surprised there hasn't been a "terrorist" attack in the US recently.
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    Nov 03, 2008 5:48 PM GMT
    Glad to see this is all over already. I guess there is no reason for any of us to go out and vote. icon_biggrin.gif
  • GQjock

    Posts: 11649

    Nov 03, 2008 6:08 PM GMT
    Around 8 pm when the prcincts start to come in it starts looking as what everybody thought it would as an Obama win
    PA squeaks by in the Obama column and we get NY MA and most of the East coast

    FL is too close to call
    Ohio starts looking like it might go to McCain

    and then weirdness sets in after early voting and predictions were made in states like WI and MN
    they go from trending for Obama to going overwhelmingly for McCain

    the pundits all start scratching their heads
    and we see McCain and Palin squeak by taking the electoral college by 3 pts but losing the popular vote by 3 million

    it takes 3 years for us to climb our way out of a terrible recession we lose thousands upon thousands of jobs
    we're still spending billions and billions every week in Iraq and Afghanistan losing military by dribs and drabs adding to the toll already

    we also are on the brink of war with Iran
    Pakistan is sending men to fight us in Afghanistan

    Millions more can't afford healthcare and are dropping their insurance
    and Palin and the rightwing crew pick three more rightwing idealogues to pack the Supreme court

    Lovely scenario ain't it??
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    Nov 03, 2008 6:16 PM GMT
    Obama by at least 340. If I'm wrong I'll own it and the Bushies are free to make fun of me. I think a preemptive assassination attempt will be foiled before the polls close tomorrow and John90210 will get his 15 minutes of fame.icon_lol.gif
  • coolarmydude

    Posts: 9190

    Nov 03, 2008 7:10 PM GMT
    I'm hoping for a landslide and a mandate. It's time to move the country and the world forward.

    It's time to get the wine out. Anyone around to celebrate?
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    Nov 03, 2008 7:13 PM GMT
    jstrapguy saidGlad to see this is all over already. I guess there is no reason for any of us to go out and vote. icon_biggrin.gif


    There is always a reason to vote. I think over the years the party I have voted for has won maybe 50% of the time? In the recent Canadian election I did not vote for the Conservatives despite knowing full well they were a shoo-in for at least another minority government. The polls were dead on.
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    Nov 03, 2008 7:19 PM GMT
    coolHUSSEINdude saidI'm hoping for a landslide and a mandate. It's time to move the country and the world forward.

    It's time to get the wine out. Anyone around to celebrate?


    After Halloween night I have sworn off alcohol for at least a week. Never pore a mixed drink without a shot glass. icon_eek.gif

    Now if someone sent me a nice bottle of expensive champagne I might be talked into raising a glass or two. icon_biggrin.gif
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    Nov 03, 2008 7:23 PM GMT
    GQjock saidAround 8 pm when the prcincts start to come in it starts looking as what everybody thought it would as an Obama win
    PA squeaks by in the Obama column and we get NY MA and most of the East coast

    FL is too close to call
    Ohio starts looking like it might go to McCain

    and then weirdness sets in after early voting and predictions were made in states like WI and MN
    they go from trending for Obama to going overwhelmingly for McCain

    the pundits all start scratching their heads
    and we see McCain and Palin squeak by taking the electoral college by 3 pts but losing the popular vote by 3 million

    it takes 3 years for us to climb our way out of a terrible recession we lose thousands upon thousands of jobs
    we're still spending billions and billions every week in Iraq and Afghanistan losing military by dribs and drabs adding to the toll already

    we also are on the brink of war with Iran
    Pakistan is sending men to fight us in Afghanistan

    Millions more can't afford healthcare and are dropping their insurance
    and Palin and the rightwing crew pick three more rightwing idealogues to pack the Supreme court

    Lovely scenario ain't it??


    I can't see that happening, but then again I was befuddled by 2004. I swear you could have Daffy Duck and Porky Pig on the GOP ticket and a certain number of people would vote for them.

    The shocking thing about this election is how badly the Republicans are doing in some states that are normally a gimme. North Dakota for instance should be safe for McCain, but it is still not a guarantee. Indiana is another state that has nearly always gone for the Republicans. They will likely still win it but it will not be a landslide.
  • styrgan

    Posts: 2017

    Nov 03, 2008 8:17 PM GMT
    SurrealLife said
    GQjock saidAround 8 pm when the prcincts start to come in it starts looking as what everybody thought it would as an Obama win
    PA squeaks by in the Obama column and we get NY MA and most of the East coast

    FL is too close to call
    Ohio starts looking like it might go to McCain

    and then weirdness sets in after early voting and predictions were made in states like WI and MN
    they go from trending for Obama to going overwhelmingly for McCain

    the pundits all start scratching their heads
    and we see McCain and Palin squeak by taking the electoral college by 3 pts but losing the popular vote by 3 million

    Lovely scenario ain't it??


    I can't see that happening, but then again I was befuddled by 2004. I swear you could have Daffy Duck and Porky Pig on the GOP ticket and a certain number of people would vote for them.


    That's interesting, Surreal. The polls were dead on in 2004, and showed that Bush would carry the popular vote two or three weeks out.

    Oh wait... you mean you're befuddled by the fact that anyone could have been stupid enough to vote for this loser twice.

    Yeah. Me too.

    icon_biggrin.gif

    In all seriousness, John Kerry was right up there with Mondale and Dukakis as a losing candidate from the getgo.
  • styrgan

    Posts: 2017

    Nov 03, 2008 8:18 PM GMT