States That Might Get Gay Marriage Next (or Never) — Polled, Mapped & Ranked

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    Jun 26, 2013 11:53 PM GMT
    The Supreme Court's split decision on gay marriage leaves the issue of legalization up to states. As we've noted, a number of states have existing bans on the practice. But which states might be in line to completely legalize marriages between same-sex couples?

    http://www.theatlanticwire.com/national/2013/06/gay-marriage-state-polls-mapped-ranked/66626/
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    Jun 27, 2013 12:02 AM GMT
    It is nice to see that my Michigan is one of the highest approval among states that do not have gay marriage. One thing to point out, Michigan, Virginia, and Arizona all have very favorable numbers, but they are also three states that have the most recent polling so that might be reflective of why the numbers are so high.
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    Jun 27, 2013 12:10 AM GMT
    Now we need President Obama to "evolve" some more. Last year (right before the election) he "evolved" to the Republican point of view that same-sex marriage is an issue that should be decided by each state.

    Mr. Obama needs to "evolve" once again to the point of view that same-sex marriage legalization is a Federal issue.
  • reptile18

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    Jun 27, 2013 1:52 AM GMT
    I thought Wisconsin would be next since it's two neighbors, Iowa and Minnesota already have gay marriage. Though if Michigan gets it next, Wisconsin will have no excuse icon_razz.gif
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    Jun 27, 2013 2:42 AM GMT
    Nice story, but completely misleading as to Virginia. The state legislature is fixed for rural/conservative control, even though Democrats routinely win statewide office. It won't happen anytime soon, unfortunately. I may have to move to DC or Maryland. icon_sad.gif
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    Jun 27, 2013 2:50 AM GMT
    showme saidNice story, but completely misleading as to Virginia. The state legislature is fixed for rural/conservative control, even though Democrats routinely win statewide office. It won't happen anytime soon, unfortunately. I may have to move to DC or Maryland. icon_sad.gif

    Unfortunately for you, Virginia requires a vote of the House and Senate to put it up for a vote again. In Michigan and Ohio, it can be done by gathering signatures on a petition to put it on the ballot again.
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    Jun 27, 2013 2:52 AM GMT
    reptile18 saidI thought Wisconsin would be next since it's two neighbors, Iowa and Minnesota already have gay marriage. Though if Michigan gets it next, Wisconsin will have no excuse icon_razz.gif


    Don't get your hopes up. We have a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.

    Quoting from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel:

    "Before Wisconsin lawmakers could consider a bill to allow gay marriage, voters would have to pass an amendment undoing the 2006 amendment language. But before that the Legislature would have to pass the amendment in two consecutive sessions."

    We are years away, which is sad and pathetic. I saw another article that said, even if the public support was there right now (which it is not), it would be a minimum of five years before this could possibly change. There's probably a better chance of it hitting the Supreme Court again and being made law of the land before it gets overturned in our state. icon_sad.gif

    I'm more holding out hope for Illinois to legalize it, since it's not that far of a drive for me.
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    Jun 27, 2013 2:53 AM GMT
    ihateyoutoo saidgood to know that jersey MIGHT be next.


    If they can get it on the ballot then yes you guys are in..

    By 2016 I expect New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, New Mexico, Oregon, Hawaii, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado and Wisconsin to pass it. Although I think a few southern states might get civil unions and those would be Florida, Virginia if gay marriage doesn't pass and possibly and don't quote me on this but maybe Louisiana.
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    Jun 27, 2013 3:18 AM GMT
    Mississippi: only 13% support gay marriage

    We need one of the conservative homophobic judges on the Supreme Court to retire and be replaced with a more progressive judge.
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    Jun 27, 2013 3:27 AM GMT
    EuphoricDanger said
    ihateyoutoo saidgood to know that jersey MIGHT be next.


    If they can get it on the ballot then yes you guys are in..

    By 2016 I expect New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, New Mexico, Oregon, Hawaii, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado and Wisconsin to pass it. Although I think a few southern states might get civil unions and those would be Florida, Virginia if gay marriage doesn't pass and possibly and don't quote me on this but maybe Louisiana.

    Virginia and Wisconsin, no. I think you are basing this on the poll numbers in the linked story, but even with bigger support for it than against it, the process needed in some of these states is too difficult to overcome by 2016.


    And Louisiana? It's a red state and the poll taken only four months ago was only 29% support and 59% opposed.
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    Jun 27, 2013 3:27 AM GMT
    Iceblink saidIt is nice to see that my Michigan is one of the highest approval among states that do not have gay marriage. One thing to point out, Michigan, Virginia, and Arizona all have very favorable numbers, but they are also three states that have the most recent polling so that might be reflective of why the numbers are so high.


    Guys in Michigan and Minnesota are so hot. PSA.
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    Jun 27, 2013 3:33 AM GMT
    Honestly, Texas might be up for grabs soon too. In many ways....
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    Jun 27, 2013 3:48 AM GMT
    Really interesting article, thank you!
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    Jun 27, 2013 4:20 AM GMT
    Broseph said
    Myol saidHonestly, Texas might be up for grabs soon too. In many ways....


    That's what I'm hearing!

    Texas has near 50% support among the people, but it has one big problem in overcoming the constitutional ban:


    1. Proposal - to be proposed, an amendment must receive the support of two-thirds of all members elected to each chamber of the Legislature
    2. Ratification - to be ratified, a proposed amendment must receive the support of a simple majority of citizens voting in a popular election, the date of which is specified by the Legislature.
    http://texaspolitics.laits.utexas.edu/7_4_5.html

    That 2/3 in the legislature is going to be extremely difficult.
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    Jun 27, 2013 4:35 AM GMT
    Iceblink said
    EuphoricDanger said
    ihateyoutoo saidgood to know that jersey MIGHT be next.


    If they can get it on the ballot then yes you guys are in..

    By 2016 I expect New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, New Mexico, Oregon, Hawaii, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado and Wisconsin to pass it. Although I think a few southern states might get civil unions and those would be Florida, Virginia if gay marriage doesn't pass and possibly and don't quote me on this but maybe Louisiana.

    Virginia and Wisconsin, no. I think you are basing this on the poll numbers in the linked story, but even with bigger support for it than against it, the process needed in some of these states is too difficult to overcome by 2016.


    And Louisiana? It's a red state and the poll taken only four months ago was only 29% support and 59% opposed.


    I hear though people would be more open to a civil union or domestic partnership type of deal. You gotta start small.
  • BIG_N_TALL

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    Jun 27, 2013 4:38 AM GMT
    I'm just waiting on Arizona or South Carolina to legalize gay marriage so Lindsey Graham and John McCain can get married.
  • waccamatt

    Posts: 1918

    Jun 27, 2013 5:06 AM GMT
    BIG_N_TALL saidI'm just waiting on Arizona or South Carolina to legalize gay marriage so Lindsey Graham and John McCain can get married.


    I live in South Carolina - Lindsey already has a boyfriend. He's such an absurd closet case, though.
  • BIG_N_TALL

    Posts: 2190

    Jun 27, 2013 5:12 AM GMT
    waccamatt said
    BIG_N_TALL saidI'm just waiting on Arizona or South Carolina to legalize gay marriage so Lindsey Graham and John McCain can get married.


    I live in South Carolina - Lindsey already has a boyfriend. He's such an absurd closet case, though.


    Well well. Who would have guessed? Oh well. Lindsey isn't the only closet case politician in SC.
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    Jun 27, 2013 5:31 AM GMT
    khocomel saidLawd it's time for me to get out of Gawga..


    likewise
  • GingerOH

    Posts: 159

    Jun 27, 2013 6:13 AM GMT
    Iceblink said
    showme saidNice story, but completely misleading as to Virginia. The state legislature is fixed for rural/conservative control, even though Democrats routinely win statewide office. It won't happen anytime soon, unfortunately. I may have to move to DC or Maryland. icon_sad.gif

    Unfortunately for you, Virginia requires a vote of the House and Senate to put it up for a vote again. In Michigan and Ohio, it can be done by gathering signatures on a petition to put it on the ballot again.


    And that is what we're doing. People were gathering signatures for a referendum to repeal Ohio's constitutional ban on same-sex marriage at Columbus Pride. They are looking at 2014 or 2016 as of now

  • Jun 27, 2013 11:06 AM GMT
    It's good to know that Arkansas is consistent, at least....icon_neutral.gif Maybe it's time for a move....icon_cry.gif
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    Jun 27, 2013 12:47 PM GMT
    Gay statistician Nate Silver predicts that by 2012 or 2013, a majority of people in a majority of states will support gay marriage. By 2016, only the states of the Deep South will still resist it. By 2024, even the last holdout, Mississippi, will have a majority.

    From the Closet to the Altar: Courts, Backlash and the Struggle for Same-Sex Marriage, by Michael Klarman, p. 202

    The source is Silver's 538 blog.
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    Jun 27, 2013 12:51 PM GMT
    Marriage should stay in the states. If Obama tries to tackle it he leaves the door wide open for future Republican presidents to come at us at the Federal level.

    I think the best option would be an amendment to the US constitution but that would take far more support than exists right now.
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    Jun 27, 2013 3:24 PM GMT
    And just when I thought that Michigan is stupid and not worth living in anymore... you pull me back in.
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    Jun 27, 2013 4:54 PM GMT
    GingerOH said
    Iceblink said
    showme saidNice story, but completely misleading as to Virginia. The state legislature is fixed for rural/conservative control, even though Democrats routinely win statewide office. It won't happen anytime soon, unfortunately. I may have to move to DC or Maryland. icon_sad.gif

    Unfortunately for you, Virginia requires a vote of the House and Senate to put it up for a vote again. In Michigan and Ohio, it can be done by gathering signatures on a petition to put it on the ballot again.


    And that is what we're doing. People were gathering signatures for a referendum to repeal Ohio's constitutional ban on same-sex marriage at Columbus Pride. They are looking at 2014 or 2016 as of now

    I thought they were aiming for this year (2013)?