Survivor Gabon (spoilers)


  • Nov 14, 2008 7:20 AM GMT
    I figured I may as well start a Survivor thread since I don't see one around yet, and since the tribes just merged the game has gotten interesting...

    First, I'm trying to decide if Susie has signed her own death warrant, or if she has accidentally made a move that will get her far in the game. Personally I'm leaning toward the latter. If the Koda 6 had stayed together, she'd have been dead in the water. But now the Fang have been successful at not just knocking down two of the Koda 6, but their two biggest power players. If they continue wisely, Corrinne will be the next to go, and the Koda alliance will be completely destroyed. Randy will go soon after. I think after that, there's a chance of Susie getting the boot, but by that point the old tribe lines will be pretty meaningless. If they let their emotions rule, then Randy will be the next to go, and I don't know what will happen after that. But clearly the Koda powerhouse is gone, the two former tribes are evenly matched, and there are two loose cannons as far as allicances and voting goes. There's going to be a lot of jockeying for position in the coming episodes.

    Bob's fake immunity idol is an absolute stroke of genius, and it's a maneuver that will probably benefit him, but at the same time it will probably make Sugar into a power player. If he lets people think he has an idol, either Sugar is going to reveal her idol and claim that she has the only one (unlikely) or those who know Sugar has the idol will begin to think that Sugar may have more than one idol in her possession. That makes her very dangerous, especially since she has no alliance ties. If people think she has more than one whatever alliances form will have to try and bring her into their fold. Either way, Bob is going to have to reveal the idol sometime, because a fake idol is useless if nobody thinks you have one.
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    Nov 14, 2008 10:57 AM GMT
    I've been a Survivor watcher since the beginning. Honestly, I was really having a tough time getting in to this season. Just over the last couple of weeks it has started getting really good! Finally! =)

    Randy is just a bitch...and needs to go! I can't stand him in the few minutes each show. Imagine staying in a camp with him 24/7!
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    Nov 14, 2008 11:05 AM GMT
    I take it this a new season of Survivor?

    Because we're about half way through the fans vs favorites season in Australia.
  • hartfan

    Posts: 1037

    Nov 14, 2008 11:31 AM GMT
    Between Susie and Matty, Kenny and Crystal would probably much rather keep Susie around because she would be perceived as less of a threat in challenges. (Though she did win the fire-building challenge. Who would have thought that Sugar and Susie, seemingly the least threatening players, would be the only ones who could get a fire started? What happened to Bob?) This is why Randy and Corinne were not totally unfounded when they used this reasoning to try to get Matty to jump next episode. Matty's paranoia that Crystal's gunning for him after he voted against her with Ace will play a big part in his decision. However, this would only work if Sugar also went along or there could be a tie. The chances of Sugar doing this is a tossup. When she voted for Charlie, Sugar revealed that she was doing so mainly because she did not like his alliance members, Randy and presumably Corinne. However, Sugar probably has the closest ties to Matty of all the remaining players and if anyone were likely to get her to vote their way, it'd be Matty.

    Kenny appears to be getting somewhat arrogant. If he doesn't watch his demeanor he could be going the way of Marcus.

    Of all the players left, Sugar appears not to have a plan for getting to the end and seems to just be playing day by day, if she could be said to be playing the game at all. She is lucky she has the hidden immunity idol. But if she somehow does skate by to the final three, I cannot imagine most of the jurors having any respect for her game play. She does not have real ties with any of the current and possible jurors, so it would be difficult for her to win that way either.

    Matty is lucky that Randy and Corinne are so desperate that his position as the main physical threat left is overlooked. It is possible for Kenny and Crystal to join forces with Randy and Corinne to vote him out. However, Matty's friendship with Randy, and the fact that Randy and Corinne are playing to win and would turn around to use that against Kenny and Crystal, will keep the likelihood of that happening low. As of now, it seems likely for Matty to survive two more tribal councils, but I think he needs to be very concerned when there are six left.

    Between Corinne and Randy, I think Randy is a bigger threat to Kenny and Crystal. Randy's friendship with Matty makes him extremely dangerous, while without Randy around Corinne does not have any real relationship left with any one besides maybe Bob and so would have no real pull.

    While Bob is very likable, he needs to be playing harder. So far, we haven't seen him make any big moves and he was just a filler for the original Kota alliance. The fake immunity idol is an interesting move, and I wonder if it will play out. But even so it will last him only a tribal council or two, which could be all he needs to get to the end, but facing a jury just skating by may not cut it. Having not burned, and likely won't be, any bridges will be what works in Bob's favor in front of a jury. However, the fact that Matty, Crystal and Kenny already know that Sugar has the real hidden immunity idol would make his play moot.

    If Randy and Corinne both end up of the jury, I think this jury could be rather vindictive and nasty. Marcus is likely to be angry with Crystal, as is Charlie, while Randy and Corinne are openly antagonistic toward her. These four are likely to act the same way toward Susie. Randy and Corinne also appear not to have any respect for Sugar. Matty is not apt to favor Crystal, but that could also depend on who betrays whom first.Kenny will get likely mixed reactions from the jury, who may respect him for his game play. If Matty gets to the finals, he stands the best chance of winning, but his odds of making it there are slim. Bob will get the most goodwill from the jury, but could lose votes depending on how aggressively he plays in the upcoming weeks. Randy is not likely to get any votes from Crystal, Sugar or Susie, but will likely get votes from Matty, Marcus and Charlie. Corinne may also get votes from Marcus and Charlie, but will almost certainly lose votes from Susie, Crystal and Matty.

    I don't know that Dan would not have done the same thing that Susie did by voting out Marcus. The biggest problem with the onion alliance was that they got a little too cocky and made it obvious who stood where in that alliance.

    Right now, Matty, Kenny and Randy appear to be the ones getting the "winner's" edit. Sugar also looks like she's getting that kind of portrayal, but I just don't see the jury voting for her. Susie has been largely invisible, Crystal has been on and off, while Corinne is definitely given the villain's edit.

    While the second tribal switch-up has certainly shaken things up tremendously this season, I don't think that it will match the sheer brilliance and entertainment that was Fans vs. Favorites. I am still boggled by the success of the Ozzy plan, the moronic actions of Jason, Amanda's brilliant idol maneuvering, and Erik's landmark moment of stupidity. And despite all of that, someone relatively deserving actually won!

    *edited in an attempt to limit spoilers for Michigan_08
  • cityguy39

    Posts: 967

    Nov 14, 2008 1:38 PM GMT
    Yes Randy needs to go, I forgot the asian guy's name, he's actually a pretty impressive player so far. I'm not that fond of Crystal, I like Matty he's sexy as hell and next to the professor seems the most solid male, not sure who I want to win at this point.
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    Nov 14, 2008 5:30 PM GMT
    Now that Charlie and Marcus are in the jury house together, do you think there is any chance they will hook up?, or is this just another bromance?

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    Nov 14, 2008 5:58 PM GMT
    ScottCLE saidRandy is just a bitch...and needs to go! I can't stand him in the few minutes each show. Imagine staying in a camp with him 24/7!

    I"m with you there...damn, he bugs the hell out of me!

    Tanman1067 saidNow that Charlie and Marcus are in the jury house together, do you think there is any chance they will hook up?, or is this just another bromance?
    Do you think Marcus is actually gay? The only good thing about them getting booted is seeing them cleaned up on the jury...both very hot guys I think icon_smile.gif

    Definitely agree Scott that it's just now FINALLY getting some excitement.
    And Courgarwalker, I agree, Bob's fake immunity necklace is absolutely a stroke of genius, I hope he is able to pull off a fast one with it!
  • hartfan

    Posts: 1037

    Nov 14, 2008 7:03 PM GMT
    Tanman1067 saidNow that Charlie and Marcus are in the jury house together, do you think there is any chance they will hook up?, or is this just another bromance?



    If you go to the CBS website, you can check out what Charlie and Marcus are doing. In the two clips there, I sense a weird vibe going on between Charlie and Marcus, but it may just be me.
  • hartfan

    Posts: 1037

    Nov 21, 2008 12:00 PM GMT
    What a tribal council. On first viewing, it was awesome even though we knew it was coming. I wasn't a Randy fan to begin with, but after watching it a second time, I kind of felt bad for him, even if he did kinda deserve it. I have no idea what Operation Strong Arm was supposed to achieve besides ensuring that people will vote him out. Corrine may be secretly rejoicing that Randy decided to divert attention away from her.

    I understand Bob's motivation in trying to keep the target squarely on Randy, and possibly making a friend in Sugar. But I can't help but wonder if this move will benefit him at all. It looks like he could have lost a jury vote in Randy and maybe Corrine, depending on if he can convince her that he wasn't in on the joke.

    The alliance of Kenny, Crystal, Matty, Susie and Sugar seems weirdly unstable somehow. Yet I don't think it will fall apart until after they get rid of Corrine, simply because neither Sugar nor Susie can stand her. It's strange that no one has yet to realize Matty is a physical threat, though you can probably make the case for Kenny, Bob or Susie even as challenge threats.

    So Sugar actually appears capable of game orchestration. But I think this move did nothing to benefit her status in the game at all, so I hope she spends more energy on actual strategizing, not that Randy would have voted for her in the finals anyway. Proof: Cookiegate.

    Kenny's odds of winning are very high, especially considering evidence from unaired scenes. Sugar has said she wouldn't mind losing to Kenny in a final three of her, Kenny and Crystal because Kenny deserves it. Matty said he is just beginning to realize that Kenny is kind of a mastermind. Corinne said that of all the people left only Kenny is smart enough to be strategic, but she also thinks that he's too wussy to make any bold moves.

    I just realized that Marcus and Charlie actually make a pretty cute couple!
  • MuscleUp

    Posts: 118

    Dec 05, 2008 2:32 AM GMT
    The strategy this season is way too emotional. People are losing sight of the game as a whole. Hatch would not approve.

    Kenny blew it with that vote for Matty and totally exposed the attempted blindside. He didn't need to vote for Matty. The vote would have been 5-2 in favor of Corinne going. If the idol was real, Matty would be going home regardless. His one vote did nothing but expose him.

    I feel like Survivor has recently been casting "occupations" rather than suitable contestants. WWE wrestler? video gamer? poker player? models? = boring.

    They need to go back to only two people in the finals.





  • hartfan

    Posts: 1037

    Dec 05, 2008 3:34 AM GMT
    BostonBryan saidThe strategy this season is way too emotional. People are losing sight of the game as a whole. Hatch would not approve.

    Kenny blew it with that vote for Matty and totally exposed the attempted blindside. He didn't need to vote for Matty. The vote would have been 5-2 in favor of Corinne going. If the idol was real, Matty would be going home regardless. His one vote did nothing but expose him.

    I feel like Survivor has recently been casting "occupations" rather than suitable contestants. WWE wrestler? video gamer? poker player? models? = boring.

    They need to go back to only two people in the finals.


    You're right. I did not understand why Kenny voted for Matty. And he's supposed to be the most strategic player left! Now he's possibly in danger because if Matty, Susie and Sugar pull in Bob he could be gone. If Kenny goes I don't know whoever's left who really deserves to win this game.

    I think the show does not exactly cast these occupations (except for models, they always have a few of those), but instead stereotypes them when they get these contestants. And I still don't understand how Crystal can be an Olympic champion.

    They went back to final two in Micronesia and Cirie got screwed out of a million bucks. However, I think that the players just have to be prepared whether it's a final two or final three.
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    Dec 05, 2008 3:41 AM GMT
    hartfan said

    They went back to final two in Micronesia and Cirie got screwed out of a million bucks. However, I think that the players just have to be prepared whether it's a final two or final three.


    The only reason they went to Final 2 that season was because of the record number of quits (Kathy & Chet)/game-ending-injuries (James & Jonathan) that season. They have to stay out there at least 39 days, plus clean-up, to use out they're production license. Which is why they added an extra challenge which, unfortunately, led to Goddess Cirie being voted off icon_cry.gif

    And also why they had an even-number jury...I bet production was holding their breath leading up to the finale. Having the votes force a live tie-breaker could have killed the show.
  • RSportsguy

    Posts: 1925

    Dec 05, 2008 4:18 AM GMT
    NHJeepGuy23 said
    hartfan said

    They went back to final two in Micronesia and Cirie got screwed out of a million bucks. However, I think that the players just have to be prepared whether it's a final two or final three.


    The only reason they went to Final 2 that season was because of the record number of quits (Kathy & Chet)/game-ending-injuries (James & Jonathan) that season. They have to stay out there at least 39 days, plus clean-up, to use out they're production license. Which is why they added an extra challenge which, unfortunately, led to Goddess Cirie being voted off icon_cry.gif

    And also why they had an even-number jury...I bet production was holding their breath leading up to the finale. Having the votes force a live tie-breaker could have killed the show.


    Yeah and if Chet could have stuck it out for another week, they could have blindsided Ozzie earlier and it would have been a totally different game. Chet might have been the most useless Survivor contestant ever!! (My opinion). icon_wink.gif
  • hartfan

    Posts: 1037

    Dec 05, 2008 5:07 AM GMT
    RSportsguy said
    Yeah and if Chet could have stuck it out for another week, they could have blindsided Ozzie earlier and it would have been a totally different game. Chet might have been the most useless Survivor contestant ever!! (My opinion). icon_wink.gif


    I was feeling really bad for Tracy when she helped keep his ass around so many times and he wouldn't even lift a finger to help her stay in the game longer.

    However, if Ozzy had left it might have led to a very different season altogether. Remember the series of blindsides that happened? That was what really made that season amazing. I still can't help but laugh when I think about how Erik got manipulated into giving up his immunity necklace. He's such a nice kid.
  • Koaa2

    Posts: 1556

    Dec 05, 2008 8:22 PM GMT
    Corrinne is something else, I wonder if she will regret having said all the terrible things she has. I am glad she went last night.
  • RITS

    Posts: 156

    Dec 06, 2008 12:48 AM GMT
    I watch Survivor and Big Brother faithfully...icon_redface.gif

    But as for this season I am really liking Crystal and Sugar. Kenny, Bob, and Matt are the next 3 to go. I bet it will come down to the 3 girls. And whoever makes it to final 2 between Crystal and Sugar will take Suzie and win over Suzie
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    Dec 06, 2008 12:56 AM GMT
    I hope that Corrine was somewhere watching the show last night squirming. Her comments during the final credits were extremely harsh! She may get a verbal beating during the reunion show.

    Something about Kenny and Crystal rubs me the wrong way...way to flip-floppy. I'm starting to dislike their game play. Bob seems like a nice guy. Unfortunately, aside from his immunity idol artwork and attempts, his game play is not very good.

    I've really become a fan of Sugar! She's really starting to impress me. I'd love to see her win. And she still has an immunity idol to use.

    I've applied many many times and will keep trying. This game would be so awesome to play!!!

    Oh...and even sitting in the jury Randy still comes across as a douche.


    NHJeepGuy23 said

    They went back to final two in Micronesia and Cirie got screwed out of a million bucks.

    They have to stay out there at least 39 days, plus clean-up, to use out they're production license. Which is why they added an extra challenge which, unfortunately, led to Goddess Cirie being voted off icon_cry.gif


    I was really bummed out. I thought that she had it! She has certainly been one of my Survivor favorites.
  • Koaa2

    Posts: 1556

    Dec 06, 2008 3:58 AM GMT
    I applied once. Don't know if I will again.

    I am hoping for Matty or Bob, long shots.
  • hartfan

    Posts: 1037

    Dec 06, 2008 4:19 AM GMT
    ScottCLE said
    I've applied many many times and will keep trying. This game would be so awesome to play!!!


    Good luck Scott! I hope we'll see you on it in a future season.

    I'm going to make a prediction and say that Sugar and Susie will be in the final four.

    And I'm thinking that Randy and Corinne will give really hateful tribal council speeches in the finale.