NBC News Poll Skewed Sampling (Again) - 20% Respondents Gov't Workers, 43% Dems to 32% Reps

  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 11, 2013 4:18 PM GMT
    The poll was heavily overweighted with government workers and Democrats.

    @texasbryanp In today's NBC/WSJ poll, 1 in 5 respondents work for govt. Only 8% of general pop works for govt. See last page.

    http://pjmedia.com/tatler/files/2013/10/govt-workers-poll.jpg

    Then let’s factor in the poll’s partisan sample, which was 43-32 Democrat

    Complete poll info here:

    http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/Oct_poll.pdf

    http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2013/10/10/about-that-nbcwsj-poll-that-killed-republicans-on-the-shutdown/



  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Oct 11, 2013 4:55 PM GMT
    Strange how ALL the Political Polls of the last few years have been "skewed" to favor only Democrats.



    icon_lol.gif
  • TroyAthlete

    Posts: 4269

    Oct 11, 2013 4:58 PM GMT
    Where have we heard this before?

    Oh yeah. "If you unskew the poll, Romney's going to win with 99% of the vote" hahaha.
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    Oct 11, 2013 5:20 PM GMT
    Common sense appears to be non-existent among the people who have so far replied in this topics.
  • TroyAthlete

    Posts: 4269

    Oct 11, 2013 5:23 PM GMT
    SeanHamilton saidCommon sense appears to be non-existent among the people who have so far replied in this topics.


    Common sense would dictate that it is not smart to continue to complain about skewed polls and poll samples just a year after learning that the pollsters know what they're doing and conservative "unskewers" do not due to the exact same complaints about the 2008 election.

    No one is going to accuse conservatives though of common sense. Rather than finally accept their unpopularity and change their ways, they'll continue to pretend the pollsters are the problem.
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    Oct 11, 2013 5:33 PM GMT
    TroyAthlete said
    SeanHamilton saidCommon sense appears to be non-existent among the people who have so far replied in this topics.


    Common sense would dictate that it is not smart to continue to complain about skewed polls and poll samples just a year after learning that the pollsters know what they're doing and conservative "unskewers" do not due to the exact same complaints about the 2008 election.

    No one is going to accuse conservatives though of common sense. Rather than finally accept their unpopularity and change their ways, they'll continue to pretend the pollsters are the problem.


    Who's complaining?
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    Oct 11, 2013 6:10 PM GMT
    Didn't this same logic fail last year when polls supposedly oversampled Democrats? Romney lost in the end, so the logic wasn't true.

    And there is no such word as "overweighted".
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    Oct 11, 2013 6:12 PM GMT
    blkapollo saidDidn't this same logic fail last year when polls supposedly oversampled Democrats? Romney lost in the end, so the logic wasn't true.


    Not talking about logic. Talking about the composition of the poll. Please direct your attention to that.
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    Oct 11, 2013 6:15 PM GMT
    SeanHamilton said
    blkapollo saidDidn't this same logic fail last year when polls supposedly oversampled Democrats? Romney lost in the end, so the logic wasn't true.


    Not talking about logic. Talking about the composition of the poll. Please direct your attention to that.


    You are using the same logic that failed last year, "bias, too many Democrats, not enough Republicans". When a pollster makes a telephone call, they ask the person on the line what party they belong to. That's called self-ID, it's not a predetermined sample.
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    Oct 11, 2013 6:21 PM GMT
    blkapollo said
    SeanHamilton said
    blkapollo saidDidn't this same logic fail last year when polls supposedly oversampled Democrats? Romney lost in the end, so the logic wasn't true.


    Not talking about logic. Talking about the composition of the poll. Please direct your attention to that.


    You are using the same logic that failed last year, "bias, too many Democrats, not enough Republicans". When a pollster makes a telephone call, they ask the person on the line what party they belong to. That's called self-ID, it's not a predetermined sample.


    You're seeing things that aren't there. Do you feel the makeup of the polling respondents accurately mirrors the makeup of America, in order to portray an accurate snapshot of the national opinion?
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    Oct 11, 2013 6:33 PM GMT
    SeanHamilton said
    blkapollo said
    SeanHamilton said
    blkapollo saidDidn't this same logic fail last year when polls supposedly oversampled Democrats? Romney lost in the end, so the logic wasn't true.


    Not talking about logic. Talking about the composition of the poll. Please direct your attention to that.


    You are using the same logic that failed last year, "bias, too many Democrats, not enough Republicans". When a pollster makes a telephone call, they ask the person on the line what party they belong to. That's called self-ID, it's not a predetermined sample.


    You're seeing things that aren't there. Do you feel the makeup of the polling respondents accurately mirrors the makeup of America, in order to portray an accurate snapshot of the national opinion?


    Party ID is useless in polls, as is profession, those sort of cross tabs are very unreliable in determining rather a poll is accurate. Last year proved this, but that same dumb ideas are still being pushed.
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    Oct 11, 2013 6:39 PM GMT
    blkapollo said
    SeanHamilton said
    blkapollo said
    SeanHamilton said
    blkapollo saidDidn't this same logic fail last year when polls supposedly oversampled Democrats? Romney lost in the end, so the logic wasn't true.


    Not talking about logic. Talking about the composition of the poll. Please direct your attention to that.


    You are using the same logic that failed last year, "bias, too many Democrats, not enough Republicans". When a pollster makes a telephone call, they ask the person on the line what party they belong to. That's called self-ID, it's not a predetermined sample.


    You're seeing things that aren't there. Do you feel the makeup of the polling respondents accurately mirrors the makeup of America, in order to portray an accurate snapshot of the national opinion?


    Party ID is useless in polls, as is profession, those sort of cross tabs are very unreliable in determining rather a poll is accurate. Last year proved this, but that same dumb ideas are still being pushed.


    Oh, OK.

    You forgot to also write "whether or not a person is employed by the government when taking a poll about the government shutdown is useless in polls" as well.
  • TroyAthlete

    Posts: 4269

    Oct 11, 2013 6:42 PM GMT
    blkapollo said
    SeanHamilton said
    blkapollo said
    SeanHamilton said
    blkapollo saidDidn't this same logic fail last year when polls supposedly oversampled Democrats? Romney lost in the end, so the logic wasn't true.


    Not talking about logic. Talking about the composition of the poll. Please direct your attention to that.


    You are using the same logic that failed last year, "bias, too many Democrats, not enough Republicans". When a pollster makes a telephone call, they ask the person on the line what party they belong to. That's called self-ID, it's not a predetermined sample.


    You're seeing things that aren't there. Do you feel the makeup of the polling respondents accurately mirrors the makeup of America, in order to portray an accurate snapshot of the national opinion?


    Party ID is useless in polls, as is profession, those sort of cross tabs are very unreliable in determining rather a poll is accurate. Last year proved this, but that same dumb ideas are still being pushed.


    You cannot reason with conservatives.

    If they want to believe the polls are wrong and they are actually super popular, let them. It will work out as well for them now as it did last year.

    When you unskew this poll, actually 79% of Americans approve of the GOP and hate Obama hahaha.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 11, 2013 6:47 PM GMT
    TroyAthlete said

    You cannot reason with conservatives.


    You certainly paint with a broad brush.
  • TroyAthlete

    Posts: 4269

    Oct 11, 2013 6:53 PM GMT
    SeanHamilton said
    TroyAthlete said

    You cannot reason with conservatives.


    You certainly paint with a broad brush.


    You know what? You're actually right. You can reason with real conservatives. The problem is that they don't really exist anymore, and the ones who do are either 1) aging/dying off and considered RINOS or 2) surviving and thriving as establishment Democrats.

    A more focused statement is "you cannot reason with the tea party nuts in conservative clothing who now dominate the Republican party, exemplified by website trolls with fake profiles spreading right-wing disinformation". But that was implied by my original statement.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 11, 2013 6:56 PM GMT
    TroyAthlete said
    SeanHamilton said
    TroyAthlete said

    You cannot reason with conservatives.


    You certainly paint with a broad brush.


    You know what? You're actually right. You can reason with real conservatives. The problem is that they don't really exist anymore, and the ones who do are either 1) aging/dying off and considered RINOS or 2) surviving and thriving as establishment Democrats.

    A more focused statement is "you cannot reason with the tea party nuts in conservative clothing who now dominate the Republican party, exemplified by website trolls with fake profiles spreading right-wing disinformation". But that was implied by my original statement.


    You certainly paint with a broad brush.
  • GQjock

    Posts: 11649

    Oct 11, 2013 7:08 PM GMT
    Didn't you learn the last time you guys were rrporting skewed polls and the guy that saidwas going to winactually lost in a landslide?
  • pandx970

    Posts: 357

    Oct 11, 2013 7:10 PM GMT
    SeanHamilton saidThe poll was heavily overweighted with government workers and Democrats.

    @texasbryanp In today's NBC/WSJ poll, 1 in 5 respondents work for govt. Only 8% of general pop works for govt. See last page.

    http://pjmedia.com/tatler/files/2013/10/govt-workers-poll.jpg

    Then let’s factor in the poll’s partisan sample, which was 43-32 Democrat

    Complete poll info here:

    http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/Oct_poll.pdf

    http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2013/10/10/about-that-nbcwsj-poll-that-killed-republicans-on-the-shutdown/





    You have it wrong -- 16% of the US workforce is public sector employment. I think the number you're thinking of is Federal employment.

    The oversampling then comes down to 4 percentage points instead of 12 percentage points.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 11, 2013 7:36 PM GMT
    pandx970 said
    SeanHamilton saidThe poll was heavily overweighted with government workers and Democrats.

    @texasbryanp In today's NBC/WSJ poll, 1 in 5 respondents work for govt. Only 8% of general pop works for govt. See last page.

    http://pjmedia.com/tatler/files/2013/10/govt-workers-poll.jpg

    Then let’s factor in the poll’s partisan sample, which was 43-32 Democrat

    Complete poll info here:

    http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/Oct_poll.pdf

    http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2013/10/10/about-that-nbcwsj-poll-that-killed-republicans-on-the-shutdown/





    You have it wrong -- 16% of the US workforce is public sector employment. I think the number you're thinking of is Federal employment.

    The oversampling then comes down to 4 percentage points instead of 12 percentage points.


    Nope:

    7% of Americans now work for the government. (All government--federal, state, and local).

    http://www.businessinsider.com/percentage-of-americans-work-for-the-government-2012-7
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 11, 2013 8:20 PM GMT
    Can anyone explain why a Wall Street Journal poll would be skewed to Democrats?
  • rnch

    Posts: 11524

    Oct 11, 2013 8:32 PM GMT
    ART_DECO saidCan anyone explain why a Wall Street Journal poll would be skewed to Democrats?



    And.....Can anyone explain why the multi-times banned southbeach is allowed to keep on returning here, over and over, with easily recognizable "sock puppet" accounts?
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    Oct 11, 2013 8:38 PM GMT
    ART_DECO saidCan anyone explain why a Wall Street Journal poll would be skewed to Democrats?


    Three letters. N. B. C.
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    Oct 11, 2013 9:17 PM GMT
    SeanHamilton said
    ART_DECO saidCan anyone explain why a Wall Street Journal poll would be skewed to Democrats?

    Three letters. N. B. C.

    LOL!!! Dream on, SB! The 3 letters of the WSJ would never concede to NBC calling all the shots. Plus, 2 of the chief pollsters are a Republican and a Democrat.

    But a nice attempt at your predictable misrepresentations. You do realize not a single guy here, except fellow Right Wingers, buys your BS?

    But do continue, you just cheapen the Right Wing/Republican brand. icon_biggrin.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 11, 2013 9:25 PM GMT
    ART_DECO said
    SeanHamilton said
    ART_DECO saidCan anyone explain why a Wall Street Journal poll would be skewed to Democrats?

    Three letters. N. B. C.

    LOL!!! Dream on, SB! The 3 letters of the WSJ would never concede to NBC calling all the shots. Plus, 2 of the chief pollsters are a Republican and a Democrat.

    But a nice attempt at your predictable misrepresentations. You do realize not a single guy here, except fellow Right Wingers, buys your BS?

    But do continue, you just cheapen the Right Wing/Republican brand. icon_biggrin.gif


    What is this SB stuff?

    Do you feel the makeup of the polling respondents accurately mirrors the makeup of America, in order to portray an accurate snapshot of the national opinion?

    Also, remember Chuck Todd's admission that NBC polls are "Democrat heavy?"

    0:40 in this video:



  • Chainers

    Posts: 375

    Oct 11, 2013 9:37 PM GMT
    They ask if you or someone living with you works for the government.

    Republicans get the facts wrong...again.