Oil at $60 will finish Putin

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    Jan 22, 2014 10:44 AM GMT
    There is nothing behind the facade of Vladimir Putin's regime in Russia, says William Browder from Hermitage Capital Management.

    "All it will take is a fall in the price of oil to $60 a barrel and Putin will be gone within a year. You'd be surprised how brittle the system really is," he told me at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100026424/60-oil-will-finish-russias-putin-regime-says-hermitages-browder/


    Hopefully it will happen soon.
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    Jan 22, 2014 10:57 AM GMT
    Ex_Mil8 saidThere is nothing behind the facade of Vladimir Putin's regime in Russia, says William Browder from Hermitage Capital Management.

    "All it will take is a fall in the price of oil to $60 a barrel and Putin will be gone within a year. You'd be surprised how brittle the system really is," he told me at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100026424/60-oil-will-finish-russias-putin-regime-says-hermitages-browder/


    Hopefully it will happen soon.



    Definitely... also explains though why they are now beginning to invest in investigating shale gas.
  • maxferguson

    Posts: 321

    Jan 23, 2014 4:24 AM GMT
    Bill Browder is one of my favourite money managers. His lectures on foreign investing are amazing.

    As for oil, yes, it would devastate them.


    As per riddler's comment, this is why they are investing in shale gas. I'll add an interesting dynamic to the discussion: Syria. Right now Russia has a near monopoly on gas supply for many European countries. The reason Putin is so friendly to Syria is that Syria alone is preventing a gas pipeline from Qatar from integrating Qatari gas into the European gas supply (which would dramatically reduce Putin's bargaining power at the European table). If Assad goes down and more pipeline friendly government were installed, Putin would lose everything. His personal wealth in Gazprom would face highly competitive sweet gas from Qatar and his grip on European gas supply would be decimated.

    While it is true (economically speaking) that $60 oil would finish Putin, it is highly unlikely. $60 is below the cost of production for enough of the world's oil supply that it would take huge, huge new discoveries that are more economical to push it below that.

    The gas issue, however, is a much more direct strike on his power and much more likely than $60 oil.

    The Syrian government could change on a dime. Look how quickly things changed in Lybia and Egypt. Kind of speaks to the brittleness of the system.
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    Jan 23, 2014 1:05 PM GMT
    maxferguson saidBill Browder is one of my favourite money managers. His lectures on foreign investing are amazing.

    As for oil, yes, it would devastate them.


    As per riddler's comment, this is why they are investing in shale gas. I'll add an interesting dynamic to the discussion: Syria. Right now Russia has a near monopoly on gas supply for many European countries. The reason Putin is so friendly to Syria is that Syria alone is preventing a gas pipeline from Qatar from integrating Qatari gas into the European gas supply (which would dramatically reduce Putin's bargaining power at the European table). If Assad goes down and more pipeline friendly government were installed, Putin would lose everything. His personal wealth in Gazprom would face highly competitive sweet gas from Qatar and his grip on European gas supply would be decimated.

    While it is true (economically speaking) that $60 oil would finish Putin, it is highly unlikely. $60 is below the cost of production for enough of the world's oil supply that it would take huge, huge new discoveries that are more economical to push it below that.

    The gas issue, however, is a much more direct strike on his power and much more likely than $60 oil.

    The Syrian government could change on a dime. Look how quickly things changed in Lybia and Egypt. Kind of speaks to the brittleness of the system.


    I am particularly excited about the potential for this even if it is early stages:
    http://www.technologyreview.com/news/523146/chasing-the-dream-of-half-price-gasoline-from-natural-gas/

    It is unfortunate though that it seems most people are entirely unaware that many of the "green" policies as pushed by European governments is more about energy independence than environmental conservation:
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/european-commission-move-away-from-climate-protection-goals-a-943664.html
  • Lincsbear

    Posts: 2605

    Jan 23, 2014 3:56 PM GMT
    In theory, a fall in the price of oil would harm its producers, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia/Gulf States, Nigeria, etc.

    The UK has never forgotten the shock oil price rises of 1973.
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    Jan 23, 2014 4:48 PM GMT
    Lincsbear saidIn theory, a fall in the price of oil would harm its producers, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia/Gulf States, Nigeria, etc.

    The UK has never forgotten the shock oil price rises of 1973.


    The former couldn't happen to more deserving states.
  • metta

    Posts: 39107

    Jan 29, 2015 4:58 PM GMT
    Opinion: He called $50 oil, now he says it’s going lower




    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/he-called-50-oil-now-he-says-its-going-lower-2015-01-27