Revolution in Ukraine: President Yanukovych is disempowered

  • frogman89

    Posts: 418

    Feb 22, 2014 5:17 PM GMT
    Today Ukraine makes history. The people has spoken, the president was disempowered and new elections are set on May 25. Julia Tymoshenko was freed and will candidate as new president.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/world/europe/ukraine.html?hp&_r=0

    What are your thoughts about that?
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    Feb 22, 2014 9:00 PM GMT
    Amazing. Hope things work better... though I am only cautiously optimistic. I can only imagine that Langley and Lubyanka are getting next to no sleep these days.

    --------

    Parliament Ousts Ukraine President
    Action Comes After Yanukovych Leaves Capital and Decries What He Calls a Coup by 'Bandits'
    http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304914204579398561953855036?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

    In a day of fast-moving developments, Ukraine opposition leader and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko also was released from prison and made her way to Independence Square in Kiev where she addressed a large nighttime crowd.

    Speaking from a wheelchair after suffering back problems during her two and a half years in prison, Ms. Tymoshenko called for bringing Mr. Yanukovych to the square to face the people. Though widely seen as a potential presidential candidate, she gave no hints of her plans, saying only, "I came back to work."

    While the atmosphere in Kiev remained tense, protesters in cities throughout Ukraine pulled down statues of Vladimir Lenin, which are seen as symbols of Moscow's rule over the former USSR. Photo: AP/CH5

    Opposition leaders had signed a peace deal with Mr. Yanukovych Friday after dozens were killed in clashes between protesters and police. The deal proposed power sharing and presidential elections by the end of the year. But protesters weren't satisfied and as they called for his immediate ouster, police withdrew from the center of the capital Saturday.

    The conflict threatened to deepen tensions between the West and Russia. European officials immediately backed the decisions of the parliament and rejected Mr. Yanukovych's allegations of a coup. Moscow has strongly backed Mr. Yanukovych, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denounced the events in Kiev as "a direct threat to the sovereignty and constitutional order in Ukraine."
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    Feb 22, 2014 9:04 PM GMT
    awesome
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    Feb 22, 2014 9:05 PM GMT
    A site of military analysts I follow: http://strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20140222.aspx

    What gives Russians pause is the fact that despite all these defeats the Ukrainians are still willing to fight and this time around you cannot keep the barbaric tactics used to suppress the rebellion out of the news. While many Russians want their empire back they don’t want the ruthless terror of the Soviet era police state back. Stalinism has gone out of style, but that sort of ruthlessness appears to some Russian leaders as the only thing that will work right now. These hard liners point out that Western Europe and America are unlikely to intervene but will instead just call Russia all manner of nasty names. What the West can do is impose sanctions, which will hurt the Russian economy and the popularity of the current Russian government. Such sanctions are possible largely because of the development of fracking in the United States, which has enormously increased oil and gas production in North America and made Russian oil and gas less of a necessity to the West. It comes down to how much empire can Russia afford. Not much, especially when you own general staff tells you that there are not enough reliable troops to successfully invade Ukraine.

    Since November there have been massive and persistent anti-Russian demonstrations all over the country, but particularly in areas where ethnic Ukrainians (77 percent of the population) were dominant. This put the pro-Russian government on the defensive. The largest demonstrations were in the Ukrainian capital (Kiev) and stalled government efforts to replace a popular economic deal with the EU (European Union) with a less favorable arrangement with Russia. This represents a major defeat for Russian efforts to keep Ukraine from getting closer to Europe. Most Russians feel Ukraine should be a part of Russia, while most Ukrainians disagree. Still, for economic reasons many ethnic Ukrainians in the east back stronger ties with Russia. Ukraine got free in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed and want closer economic and political ties with Europe. To that end Ukraine began 2013 by signing a $10 billion contract with a major oil company to develop shale gas fields in Ukraine. Within a decade this could eliminate the need to import natural gas from Russia. This would free Ukraine from Russian threats to halt gas shipments if Ukraine did not do as it was told. This sort of thing has gotten nasty in the past. In 2009 a natural gas price dispute between Russia and Ukraine led to a compromise, but one aftereffect was growing anti-Russian sentiment among most Ukrainians. Ukraine accused Russia of fraud and intimidation. The tensions between Russia and Ukraine grew worse until the 2013 crises was reached. The trigger was a trade deal with the EU deal Ukrainian president Yanukovych promised to negotiate when he came to power in 2010. But once the deal came close to signing Russia responded with overt and secret deals that persuaded Yanukovych to change his mind. This enraged most Ukrainians (including many Russian speakers) who saw this as another example of the dirty dealing from the Russians that they wanted to get away from. Yanukovych has lost a lot of support in the security forces and has been unable to shut down the protests, which persist and get larger. Yanukovych and his supporters were seen as corrupt and willing to sell out Ukraine for personal gain. No wonder the demonstrations were so large and persistent, even in the midst of the cold weather.
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    Feb 24, 2014 5:43 PM GMT
    http://world.time.com/2014/02/24/ukraine-viktor-yanukovych-arrest-warrant/

    Arrest Warrant Issued for Deposed Ukrainian President Yanukovych

    Deposed leader, reportedly seen in Crimea, is charged with mass murder
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    Feb 24, 2014 10:39 PM GMT
    http://world.time.com/2014/02/24/russia-ukraine-kiev-upheaval-medvedev/

    Russia Steps up Rhetoric Against Ukraine Upheaval

    Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev called it an "armed mutiny."

    Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev said Monday that the upheaval in neighboring Ukraine amounts to an “armed mutiny,” markedly stepping up the rhetoric against Ukraine’s new Western-leaning leadership.

    The pro-Western opposition effectively deposed former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, a Russian ally, over the weekend after months of protests, and on Monday interim Interior Minister Arsen Avakov issued a warrant for his arrest on charges of “mass murder of peaceful civilians.” The new government has drawn the support of officials in the European Union and the U.S. eager to help steer Ukraine out of Russia’s sphere of influence. On Monday, E.U. foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton arrived in Kiev, the capital, to discuss financial support for the new government. The U.S. Treasury Department also released a statement Monday saying Secretary Jacob J. Lew and Christine Lagarde, managing director of the IMF, discussed providing an international assistance package.

    Medvedev said the Western countries are wrongly accepting the legitimacy of the new government, BBC reports.

    “This is some kind of aberration of perception when people call legitimate what is essentially the result of an armed mutiny,” he was quoted as saying by the Russian news agencies. “We do not understand what is going on there. There is a real threat to our interests and to the lives of our citizens.”

    The Russian foreign ministry recalled its ambassador for consultation on Monday and said that dissenters in Russian-speaking regions faced suppression under the new government.
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    Feb 26, 2014 2:43 PM GMT
    Ukraine Disbands Controversial Riot Police

    Demonstrators hold the Berkut riot police responsible for the deaths of protesters

    http://world.time.com/2014/02/26/ukraine-disbands-controversial-riot-police/
  • Kazachok

    Posts: 415

    Feb 26, 2014 2:47 PM GMT
    I hope Crimea secedes soon.
    All you righteous democrats have no idea what you are talking about. He threat of Stepan Bandera's desciples is very real.
    But why do I matter? I'm just a Russian imperialist, hellbent on enslaving Ukraine icon_rolleyes.gif
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    Feb 26, 2014 10:51 PM GMT
    What the West Doesn’t Understand About Ukraine’s Politics

    Behind the divisions in today’s Ukraine is a post-Soviet oligarchy rooted in the industrial East

    http://world.time.com/2014/02/26/ukraine-donbass-yanukovych-kurkov/

    American or European news broadcasts about Ukraine, sometimes even those involving specialists and political scientists, tend to include phrases like “In Ukraine there is a struggle between the Eastern pro-Russian part and the Western pro-European part of the country.” People hearing this could be forgiven for thinking Ukraine consists only of two regions: the West and the East, animated simply by their pro-European or pro-Russian views.

    This cliché is nothing new and, indeed, 20 years ago it was a reasonably accurate picture of things. The far east of Ukraine had more affection for Moscow than it had for Kiev, while the West had no love for either Kiev or Moscow, considering itself self-sufficient and part of Europe. Western Ukraine, once part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Poland, became part of the USSR only in 1939, unlike the East, which had long been a key source of Soviet industrial wealth, the site of mines, metal-working plants and barrack towns for the workers and their families who had come from all over the Soviet Union. There, almost all significant posts at the provincial, district and town levels were given to men and women from Russia or Soviet Ukraine.

    In 1991, Ukraine celebrated the unexpected gift of independence. But in the East—in the coal-rich Donbass region—there was a frightened hush. While western Ukraine and other areas of the country happily started developing small businesses and embraced Ukrainian statehood, the East followed the model of post-Soviet Russia, with a criminal “carving up” of the region’s factories and the development of its own school of oligarchs driven first by a desire to keep Donbass for the use of the Donbass elite alone. In 2004, this elite decided to put forward its own candidate in the presidential election: Viktor Yanukovych.

    Although his initial ascent to power was interrupted by the Orange Revolution, Donbass’s representative became the master of the whole country in 2010, and he repeated the policies of 1939.

    Russian-speaking inhabitants of Donetsk, the largest city in Donbass, and surrounding mining towns were sent out to be chiefs of police, customs officials and heads of the justice system throughout the country. In Donetsk, a new joke went around: “The people of Donetsk are afraid to go out at night for fear of being grabbed and sent off to be a boss in some other region.” But the inhabitants of many other areas of Ukraine could find nothing to laugh at in the tough, unsmiling manner of their new bosses from Donbass.
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    Feb 27, 2014 4:26 PM GMT
    http://world.time.com/2014/02/27/ukraine-arseniy-yatsenyuk-europe-russia/

    New Ukraine Leader Takes Strong Pro-Western Stance

    Arseniy Yatsenyuk was approved as prime minister on Thursday

    The new prime minister of Ukraine said Thursday that his country’s future lies with the European Union and that he won’t accept a split with the restive southern Crimea region that is more closely aligned with Russia.

    The parliament approved Arseniy Yatsenyuk as the new prime minister on Thursday, the Associated Press reports, less than a week after protests forced the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych, who still claims to be the country’s legitimate leader, and on Thursday appealed for protection from his Russian allies. Yatsenyuk, considered to have U.S. support, served as an economy minister, foreign minster and parliamentary speaker before Yanukovych took office in 2010.

    Yatsenyuk called for friendly relations with Russia, but after dozens of gunmen seized control of the regional parliament building in the Crimean peninsula where Russia retains a heavy influence, he said Crimea “has been and will be a part of Ukraine.”
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    Feb 27, 2014 4:30 PM GMT
    http://world.time.com/2014/02/27/report-ukraines-yanukovych-in-moscow/

    A Russian official is quoted as saying that Moscow has accepted the plea of fugitive Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych who had asked for protection.

    Three Russia news agencies quoted an unnamed official saying that Yanukovych’s request for protection “was satisfied on the territory of Russia.”

    Yanukovych, who fled from Ukraine’s capital Kiev last week, said in the Thursday statement that he still considers himself to be the legitimate leader
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    Feb 28, 2014 10:26 PM GMT
    Speaking of Crimea...

    What's going on in the Crimean peninsula with Putin's military ploy?

    I'm completely out of my league knowledge-wise on this one. All I know about is the decades-long discord over "Khrushchev's Gift", and some pipeline Putin wants to run through to save some dough.
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    Feb 28, 2014 11:50 PM GMT
    ^^

    lol which pipeline you refering to?

    20140220_ukr7_0.png
  • conservativej...

    Posts: 2465

    Mar 01, 2014 12:14 AM GMT
    Kazachok saidI hope Crimea secedes soon.
    All you righteous democrats have no idea what you are talking about. He threat of Stepan Bandera's desciples is very real.
    But why do I matter? I'm just a Russian imperialist, hellbent on enslaving Ukraine icon_rolleyes.gif


    I would give it another 36 hours and Crimea will be taken from Ukrainian control. This reminds me of the U.S. justification for invading Panama, e.g. to protect U.S. citizens. That is what is about to happen in Crimea except those protected will be Russians.
  • Suetonius

    Posts: 1842

    Mar 01, 2014 3:23 AM GMT
    Britain and the US agreed to guarantee the integrity of Ukraine's borders. So, if Russia invades, will the UK pull another Munich? My guess is that it will - after all, it's only a treaty.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html
  • roadbikeRob

    Posts: 14354

    Mar 01, 2014 3:39 AM GMT
    I wish the people of Ukraine the very best in pursuing a democratic government for their country. I just hope the violence ends very soon and cooler heads prevail. That fascist dictator from Russia, Vladimir Putin better keep his nose out of the Ukraine's internal affairs.
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    Mar 01, 2014 4:12 AM GMT
    Suetonius saidBritain and the US agreed to guarantee the integrity of Ukraine's borders. So, if Russia invades, will the UK pull another Munich? My guess is that it will - after all, it's only a treaty.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html


    we know Obama doesn't even have the balls to negotiate this much less actually do something
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    Mar 01, 2014 10:38 AM GMT
    Yulia Tymoshenko is going to be hard to rehabilitate, because she is the opposame of Yanukovich anyway; another opportunist who would take whatever she could from Ukrainians.

    The EU/West has backed an insurrection by the far-right, towards whom I am sympathetic.

    Whether Svoboda and the Right Sector will gain political power is another matter. Yes, they, including the paramilitaries, were the protestors who backed up the discontented liberals.

    This is why the Russian press and Yanukovich are referring to them as "fascists" and "Catholic fascists".

    It is more likely that opposition (economic) liberals will take power, not Tymoshenko, but someone with a clean past.

    This is the result that the West/EU would want. However, Ukraine joining the EU would be a disaster for EU member states. The intention has been to take Ukraine away from the Russian sphere of influence.

    Hopefully, Yanukovich will be brought to trial for thieving and money-laundering.

    The lesson from Ukraine is that if people want democracy, then they have to engage with the far-right, otherwise, no revolution.

  • frogman89

    Posts: 418

    Mar 01, 2014 11:48 AM GMT
    Fortis saidYulia Tymoshenko is going to be hard to rehabilitate, because she is the opposame of Yanukovich anyway; another opportunist who would take whatever she could from Ukrainians.

    The EU/West has backed an insurrection by the far-right, towards whom I am sympathetic.

    Whether Svoboda and the Right Sector will gain political power is another matter. Yes, they, including the paramilitaries, were the protestors who backed up the discontented liberals.

    This is why the Russian press and Yanukovich are referring to them as "fascists" and "Catholic fascists".

    It is more likely that opposition (economic) liberals will take power, not Tymoshenko, but someone with a clean past.

    This is the result that the West/EU would want. However, Ukraine joining the EU would be a disaster for EU member states. The intention has been to take Ukraine away from the Russian sphere of influence.

    Hopefully, Yanukovich will be brought to trial for thieving and money-laundering.

    The lesson from Ukraine is that if people want democracy, then they have to engage with the far-right, otherwise, no revolution.


    That won't happen any time soon. To join the EU Ukraine has to meet requirements like a stable government and economy. And that won't be the case for the next several years.

    And Ukraine will bring Yanukovich to trial for mass murder.

    And I don't think the lesson is that if people want democracy they have to engage with far-right. The lesson is: They have to engage.
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    Mar 01, 2014 1:31 PM GMT
    frogman89 said
    That won't happen any time soon. To join the EU Ukraine has to meet requirements like a stable government and economy. And that won't be the case for the next several years.

    And Ukraine will bring Yanukovich to trial for mass murder.

    And I don't think the lesson is that if people want democracy they have to engage with far-right. The lesson is: They have to engage.


    The first problem:

    The state is able infiltrate and subvert all political movements, and beyond; even animal rights activism and Ufology, as they do in the UK.

    (I am sure that you already know that attempts to ban or prosecute Germany's NPD have met with failure, because there are so many state agents who have infiltrated the movement, and have even acted in a way that would encourage prosecution, and the state does not want to lose its assets, even if people die, as a result.)

    This is the first way in which the state apparatus subverts democracy, and they get much better at doing so with the passing of time.

    Nevertheless, in so far as any political movement is excluded from political protest or the democratic process, it is undemocratic.

    I make the point because in "liberal" democracies, which Ukraine was not, certain political groupings are maintained at a level that keeps them outside the democratic process. In the UK, these are known as extra-parliamentary movements. This means that they are denied expression.

    I shall illustrate:

    In the UK in 2003, a conservative estimate of 750,000 people marched in opposition to the Iraq War. Led by establishment left-wing luminaries such as:

    Among other high-profile supporters were writer Tariq Ali, ex-minister Mo Mowlam, London's mayor Ken Livingstone, actress Vanessa Redgrave, human rights campaigner Bianca Jagger and former MP Tony Benn.*


    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/2765041.stm

    There is no reason why you should have heard of these people, but they are all establishment approved reds.

    What this march did not do, despite public opinion being right behind them, was march into the Houses of Parliament, which would have been a good piece of direct action.

    Instead, they had an emotional outpouring in a public park. They were bogus. The Establishment manages dissent in order to render it ineffective. The far-right are more sincere, more individualistic, less easy to manipulate, and if they were to be given a platform, they would pose a far greater threat to the establishment.

    I am 100% sure, that at least... ooh... at least 70% of folks reading this post would agree with excluding the far-right from the political process... or worse, and they have been propagandised into thinking this way.

    This is one reason why the political scene is so dead in liberal democracies. Liberal democracies are not so democratic.

    My other suspicion is that Ukraine will become a de facto EU member state after accepting a bail-out from the EU.





    * All Marxists, most with involvement with the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, once a Soviet front group. Now a relic of a bygone era, but we don't forget!


    Russian troops are now attacking Ukrainian border posts.
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    Mar 01, 2014 2:02 PM GMT
    Mark my words, this is not going to be good.
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    Mar 01, 2014 7:17 PM GMT
    frogman89 said
    Fortis saidYulia Tymoshenko is going to be hard to rehabilitate, because she is the opposame of Yanukovich anyway; another opportunist who would take whatever she could from Ukrainians.

    The EU/West has backed an insurrection by the far-right, towards whom I am sympathetic.

    Whether Svoboda and the Right Sector will gain political power is another matter. Yes, they, including the paramilitaries, were the protestors who backed up the discontented liberals.

    This is why the Russian press and Yanukovich are referring to them as "fascists" and "Catholic fascists".

    It is more likely that opposition (economic) liberals will take power, not Tymoshenko, but someone with a clean past.

    This is the result that the West/EU would want. However, Ukraine joining the EU would be a disaster for EU member states. The intention has been to take Ukraine away from the Russian sphere of influence.

    Hopefully, Yanukovich will be brought to trial for thieving and money-laundering.

    The lesson from Ukraine is that if people want democracy, then they have to engage with the far-right, otherwise, no revolution.


    That won't happen any time soon. To join the EU Ukraine has to meet requirements like a stable government and economy. And that won't be the case for the next several years.

    And Ukraine will bring Yanukovich to trial for mass murder.

    And I don't think the lesson is that if people want democracy they have to engage with far-right. The lesson is: They have to engage.


    lol they probably have a more stable economy than Greece, Italy, abd Spain
  • frogman89

    Posts: 418

    Mar 01, 2014 8:08 PM GMT
    somersault said
    frogman89 said
    Fortis saidYulia Tymoshenko is going to be hard to rehabilitate, because she is the opposame of Yanukovich anyway; another opportunist who would take whatever she could from Ukrainians.

    The EU/West has backed an insurrection by the far-right, towards whom I am sympathetic.

    Whether Svoboda and the Right Sector will gain political power is another matter. Yes, they, including the paramilitaries, were the protestors who backed up the discontented liberals.

    This is why the Russian press and Yanukovich are referring to them as "fascists" and "Catholic fascists".

    It is more likely that opposition (economic) liberals will take power, not Tymoshenko, but someone with a clean past.

    This is the result that the West/EU would want. However, Ukraine joining the EU would be a disaster for EU member states. The intention has been to take Ukraine away from the Russian sphere of influence.

    Hopefully, Yanukovich will be brought to trial for thieving and money-laundering.

    The lesson from Ukraine is that if people want democracy, then they have to engage with the far-right, otherwise, no revolution.


    That won't happen any time soon. To join the EU Ukraine has to meet requirements like a stable government and economy. And that won't be the case for the next several years.

    And Ukraine will bring Yanukovich to trial for mass murder.

    And I don't think the lesson is that if people want democracy they have to engage with far-right. The lesson is: They have to engage.


    lol they probably have a more stable economy than Greece, Italy, abd Spain

    Yes, that's probably true. But when Greece, Italy and Spain joined the EU they were stable. They are fucked up now because their governments just don't get it right.
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    Mar 02, 2014 12:04 AM GMT
    frogman89 said
    Yes, that's probably true. But when Greece, Italy and Spain joined the EU they were stable. They are fucked up now because their governments just don't get it right.


    The EU country with the highest percentage of public debt as GDP is Ireland.

    #2 is the UK. A disaster waiting to happen.