Crimean (Ukraine) Invasion by Russia

  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Feb 28, 2014 10:57 PM GMT
    What's going on in the Crimean peninsula with Putin's military ploy?

    I'm completely out of my league knowledge-wise on this one. All I know about is the decades-long discord over "Khrushchev's Gift", and some pipeline Putin wants to run through to save some dough.
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    Feb 28, 2014 11:00 PM GMT
    I was just about to open a topic. You beat me icon_evil.gif
    It's scary shit. Neo-Nazis are also pouring into Ukraine now, and the Tatars want Ankara to help LOL (As if Turkey can even stand up to Russia).
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    Feb 28, 2014 11:02 PM GMT




    http://rt.com/news/crimea-parliament-building-capture-987/



    http://rt.com/news/crimea-facts-protests-politics-945/

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    Feb 28, 2014 11:03 PM GMT
    ThedailybeastA senior Russian government official told the Financial Times on February 20: “If Ukraine breaks apart, it will trigger a war. They will lose Crimea first [because] we will go in and protect [it], just as we did in Georgia.” (As as a matter of fact, a day after the Sochi Games ended, the Russian military restarted construction on a 30-mile barbed wire fence dividing South Ossetia from the Georgian mainland, information that was anxiously relayed by Tbilisi’s new pro-NATO, pro-Europe prime minister to Foreign Policy magazine.) Perhaps not coincidentally, also on February 20, Matvienko’s counterpart in the Crimean parliament, Vladimir Konstantinov, anticipated separatism as the likeliest course for the peninsula: “It may happen if the country splits. Anyway, the entire situation is heading towards it.” Today, Konstantinov announced a May 25 referendum for more Crimean “autonomy.”
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    Feb 28, 2014 11:04 PM GMT
    Also, my apologies. I was supposed to remember to put this thread in News and Politics.
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    Feb 28, 2014 11:11 PM GMT
    Sweetooth said
    ThedailybeastA senior Russian government official told the Financial Times on February 20: “If Ukraine breaks apart, it will trigger a war. They will lose Crimea first [because] we will go in and protect [it], just as we did in Georgia.” (As as a matter of fact, a day after the Sochi Games ended, the Russian military restarted construction on a 30-mile barbed wire fence dividing South Ossetia from the Georgian mainland, information that was anxiously relayed by Tbilisi’s new pro-NATO, pro-Europe prime minister to Foreign Policy magazine.) Perhaps not coincidentally, also on February 20, Matvienko’s counterpart in the Crimean parliament, Vladimir Konstantinov, anticipated separatism as the likeliest course for the peninsula: “It may happen if the country splits. Anyway, the entire situation is heading towards it.” Today, Konstantinov announced a May 25 referendum for more Crimean “autonomy.”


    I was just reading somewhere about Georgia, and the Naval Base for Gas Treaty between Russia and Ukraine (2010?) I was wondering if Russia now thinks they need full control of Crimea and the navy bases to put up a significantly more aggressive stance toward Georgia (South Ossetia in particular).
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    Feb 28, 2014 11:16 PM GMT
    Pertaining to the pipeline: A couple maps I came across while strolling through Twitter (no idea how verifiable any of it is)...

    Bhj3RldCQAEDPRg.png

    BhlTEBCCQAAVb7u.jpg
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    Feb 28, 2014 11:56 PM GMT
    without Russian natural gas, Western Europe is screwed, therefore, Ukraine is screwed. Have you heard anyone from France, Germany or the UK crying about Ukraine? No
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    Mar 01, 2014 3:31 AM GMT
    Russia: "Invasion? What Invasion?" icon_confused.gif

    http://news.sky.com/story/1218722/ukraine-regains-airports-from-russia

    Sky NewsUkraine's security authorities later said they had regained control of the two airports.

    "There was an attempt to seize the airports, but we have localised those attempts," Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council chief Andriy Parubiy said.

    "The airports are now controlled by Ukrainian law enforcement authorities."

    The accusations come a day after dozens of pro-Moscow gunmen seized government buildings in the Crimean capital of Simferopol.

    These included the regional parliament, which subsequently voted to hold a referendum on May 25 to expand the region's autonomy from Kiev.


    It's all terribly confounding.

    Sky NewsRussia earlier reaffirmed its pledge to "respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine", despite placing fighter jets on combat alert along the countries' shared border.

    The pledge came after US Secretary of State John Kerry spoke to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov amid ongoing tension in Ukraine.
  • Suetonius

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    Mar 01, 2014 7:51 AM GMT
    Britain and the US agreed to guarantee the integrity of Ukraine's borders. So, if Russia invades, will the UK pull another Munich? My guess is that it will - after all, it's only a treaty. The agreement was the quid pro quo for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons. Seems like Ukraine got snookered into a bad decision. Russia would not be invading if Ukraine had kept its nukes.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html
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    Mar 01, 2014 5:15 PM GMT
    Ukrainian guy here.
    In fact, russian military have already invaded Crimea yesterday. Its loss seems now iminent. The more important question for now is wether Putin has plans to go further into eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, which may bring a lot of economical losses and blood because most likely there will be some kind of opression unlike Crimean.
    Crimea itself is useless, because its hugely dependable on the mainland Ukraine - all the communications and even water supply are maintained from there.
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    Mar 01, 2014 7:27 PM GMT
    it's time to send a couple B2's over Moscow
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    Mar 01, 2014 8:37 PM GMT
    Suetonius saidBritain and the US agreed to guarantee the integrity of Ukraine's borders. So, if Russia invades, will the UK pull another Munich? My guess is that it will - after all, it's only a treaty. The agreement was the quid pro quo for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons. Seems like Ukraine got snookered into a bad decision. Russia would not be invading if Ukraine had kept its nukes.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2570335/Former-British-Ambassador-Moscow-warns-Russia-invaded-Ukraine-difficult-avoid-going-war.html

    Its a matter of 3 months to restore nuclear weapons and Ukraine has technology for that, but no one will allow it now anyway. I guess its also true that after Ukraine no country EVER will agree to give up their nuclears, thanks to Russia
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    Mar 02, 2014 2:48 AM GMT
    Carthage saidUkrainian guy here.
    In fact, russian military have already invaded Crimea yesterday. Its loss seems now iminent. The more important question for now is wether Putin has plans to go further into eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, which may bring a lot of economical losses and blood because most likely there will be some kind of opression unlike Crimean.
    Crimea itself is useless, because its hugely dependable on the mainland Ukraine - all the communications and even water supply are maintained from there.


    Thank you for your input, I'm hoping for the best for all directly involved.

    Are there ethnic factions within the Ukrainian military force that would make it difficult to put up significant internal resistance to any advances by Putin? There seems from afar to be a strong pro-Russian sentiment from within Crimea and Ukraine (that politician who got chased through the streets a couple days ago may be skewing my view somewhat).
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    Mar 02, 2014 2:29 PM GMT
    dayumm said

    Are there ethnic factions within the Ukrainian military force that would make it difficult to put up significant internal resistance to any advances by Putin? There seems from afar to be a strong pro-Russian sentiment from within Crimea and Ukraine (that politician who got chased through the streets a couple days ago may be skewing my view somewhat).


    Military seem to remain loyal to Ukraine even in Crimea. But there is huge divide in the ordinary population and it may be used as an ocassion for Putin to invade, er sorry, to liberate those poor folk from neo-nazis and facism rule. (Thats the russian version). In Crimea those who want to be liberated are close to 70-80%. But in other south-eastern regions it varies around 40-60% and the other part is not quite happy to wake up under russian rule.
    Also I dont know wether western media have covered that, but yesterday on the Russian Federation Senate meeting, where they unanimously voted to allow Putin invade Ukraine, some of them also suggested to call back embassy from USA and one even called it "empire of lies". I wonder if there will be any reaction to that from US?
  • creature

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    Mar 02, 2014 3:21 PM GMT
    Carthage said
    dayumm said

    Are there ethnic factions within the Ukrainian military force that would make it difficult to put up significant internal resistance to any advances by Putin? There seems from afar to be a strong pro-Russian sentiment from within Crimea and Ukraine (that politician who got chased through the streets a couple days ago may be skewing my view somewhat).


    Military seem to remain loyal to Ukraine even in Crimea. But there is huge divide in the ordinary population and it may be used as an ocassion for Putin to invade, er sorry, to "liberate" those poor folk from neo-nazis and facism rule. (Thats the official russian version). In Crimea those who want to be liberated are close to 70-80%. But in other south-eastern regions it varies around 40-60% and the other part is not quite happy to wake up under russian rule.
    Also I dont know wether western media have covered that, but yesterday on the Russian Federation Senate meeting, where they unanimously voted to allow Putin invade Ukraine, some of them also suggested to call back embassy from USA and one even called it "empire of lies". I wonder if there will be any reaction to that from US?


    I read about that on HuffingtonPost. Glad to see you're on this site, and please share any information you can as events unfold. I have a feeling a lot of misinformation will be posted here, and it'll be helpful to have someone like you clear things up. icon_biggrin.gif
  • conservativej...

    Posts: 2465

    Mar 02, 2014 4:09 PM GMT
    Carthage saidUkrainian guy here.
    In fact, russian military have already invaded Crimea yesterday. Its loss seems now iminent. The more important question for now is wether Putin has plans to go further into eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, which may bring a lot of economical losses and blood because most likely there will be some kind of opression unlike Crimean.
    Crimea itself is useless, because its hugely dependable on the mainland Ukraine - all the communications and even water supply are maintained from there.


    Several years ago I sat in the U.S. and for the most part received news from U.S. media sources. At the time I had substantial business interests in Europe and Russia visiting several times per year but did not focus on European news other than that related to my business interest. Now with my permanent residence in Europe daily news I receive is of course from Europe and I can tell you it is quite different in perspective than what most Real Jock members receive.

    Ukraine as a nation has practically zero economic activity with Europe other than owing debt to be honest. Yes there is economic activity, but when compared to countries integrated into the Eurozone it is minimal. The advantage of course for Ukraine to enter the zone is in all honesty the said ability to borrow more. Whether that will enable Ukraine to be self supporting is one very big question. Think of Greece and by the way, what the U.S. is becoming very quickly.

    If I were to be forced to choose between Russian and Ukrainian business opportunities and I can you the choice would be Russia hands down. I earn Euros of every cubic meter of product flowing through those pipelines. If the armed forces of Ukraine threaten that, not only will you see Russia move across Ukraine, but you will suddenly see a significant mood change in Europe. The union will fracture and there will be Eurozone countries ready to eat Ukraine for lunch.

    Sadam Hussein threatened energy commerce across the Middle-East when he moved up to the Saudi border. Russia is not seen as a Sadam in Europe, but Ukraine could easily fall into that role as a nation.

    It think it is time for Ukrainians to be realistic in their views. Something must change rapidly for there to be any hope of maintaining a reasonable lifestyle, e.g. food in the market.

    Of course, you may believe the Ukrainian Army will hold off the Russians. I'm not sure whether stockpiles of armaments will carry the army for two weeks, as your government has not exactly been spending money on the army.



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    Mar 02, 2014 4:35 PM GMT
    Carthage said
    dayumm said

    Are there ethnic factions within the Ukrainian military force that would make it difficult to put up significant internal resistance to any advances by Putin? There seems from afar to be a strong pro-Russian sentiment from within Crimea and Ukraine (that politician who got chased through the streets a couple days ago may be skewing my view somewhat).


    Military seem to remain loyal to Ukraine even in Crimea. But there is huge divide in the ordinary population and it may be used as an ocassion for Putin to invade, er sorry, to "liberate" those poor folk from neo-nazis and facism rule. (Thats the official russian version). In Crimea those who want to be liberated are close to 70-80%. But in other south-eastern regions it varies around 40-60% and the other part is not quite happy to wake up under russian rule.
    Also I dont know wether western media have covered that, but yesterday on the Russian Federation Senate meeting, where they unanimously voted to allow Putin invade Ukraine, some of them also suggested to call back embassy from USA and one even called it "empire of lies". I wonder if there will be any reaction to that from US?


    Obama may bluster, but Putin will believe that it's empty words from an empty suit.

    Just this week, Hagel announced plans to downsize the US military by 20%. I don't think we're in a position to react with anything other than harsh words and perhaps economic sanctions.
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    Mar 02, 2014 6:05 PM GMT
    kiwiLifter said
    somersault saidit's time to send a couple B2's over Moscow


    Sure, because its not like they got a gazillion long range nuclear missiles pointed at Mickey Mouse Land. icon_rolleyes.gif

    You babies are too young to remember, but the 80s nuclear war fear is coming back fast to me:

    938572-bigthumbnail.jpg


    he won't, but the only way to deal with a bully is to beat the shit out of him imo
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    Mar 02, 2014 7:08 PM GMT
    conservativejock said
    Carthage saidUkrainian guy here.
    In fact, russian military have already invaded Crimea yesterday. Its loss seems now iminent. The more important question for now is wether Putin has plans to go further into eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, which may bring a lot of economical losses and blood because most likely there will be some kind of opression unlike Crimean.
    Crimea itself is useless, because its hugely dependable on the mainland Ukraine - all the communications and even water supply are maintained from there.


    Several years ago I sat in the U.S. and for the most part received news from U.S. media sources. At the time I had substantial business interests in Europe and Russia visiting several times per year but did not focus on European news other than that related to my business interest. Now with my permanent residence in Europe daily news I receive is of course from Europe and I can tell you it is quite different in perspective than what most Real Jock members receive.

    Ukraine as a nation has practically zero economic activity with Europe other than owing debt to be honest. Yes there is economic activity, but when compared to countries integrated into the Eurozone it is minimal. The advantage of course for Ukraine to enter the zone is in all honesty the said ability to borrow more. Whether that will enable Ukraine to be self supporting is one very big question. Think of Greece and by the way, what the U.S. is becoming very quickly.

    If I were to be forced to choose between Russian and Ukrainian business opportunities and I can you the choice would be Russia hands down. I earn Euros of every cubic meter of product flowing through those pipelines. If the armed forces of Ukraine threaten that, not only will you see Russia move across Ukraine, but you will suddenly see a significant mood change in Europe. The union will fracture and there will be Eurozone countries ready to eat Ukraine for lunch.

    Sadam Hussein threatened energy commerce across the Middle-East when he moved up to the Saudi border. Russia is not seen as a Sadam in Europe, but Ukraine could easily fall into that role as a nation.

    It think it is time for Ukrainians to be realistic in their views. Something must change rapidly for there to be any hope of maintaining a reasonable lifestyle, e.g. food in the market.

    Of course, you may believe the Ukrainian Army will hold off the Russians. I'm not sure whether stockpiles of armaments will carry the army for two weeks, as your government has not exactly been spending money on the army.





    Well if anyone is endangering the pipelines it is certainly russia, not ukraine. The main ones go through western Ukraine, and if Putin thinks he can take those regions by force, he is insane. It is in EU's best interest to stabilize the region as fast as possible, and divided ukraine is opposite of stabilized.
    Also if you say that theres no economic interest in Ukraine for EU, why they have been pushing so hard for association agreement?
    I wont argue that our army is in shitty situation, but its still enough to create conflict in the region and bring blood and destabilization.
  • thadjock

    Posts: 2183

    Mar 02, 2014 7:22 PM GMT
    Obama better yank Putin's chain (kick him out of g8 and freeze up his banks) NOW or be forever his bitch.

    Barack needs to fukin grow a pair. we should have molecularised Bashar ASSad with a 30 ton bomb right down his palace hole. they were begging us to do it!

    instead we dither till it's too late



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    Mar 02, 2014 7:57 PM GMT
    thadjock saidObama better yank Putin's chain (kick him out of g8 and freeze up his banks) NOW or be forever his bitch.

    Barack needs to fukin grow a pair. we should have molecularised Bashar ASSad with a 30 ton bomb right down his palace hole. they were begging us to do it!

    instead we dither till it's too late





    Obama is a gutless community organizer from Chicago and Wall Street's bitch - end of story
  • conservativej...

    Posts: 2465

    Mar 02, 2014 8:07 PM GMT
    somersault said
    thadjock saidObama better yank Putin's chain (kick him out of g8 and freeze up his banks) NOW or be forever his bitch.

    Barack needs to fukin grow a pair. we should have molecularised Bashar ASSad with a 30 ton bomb right down his palace hole. they were begging us to do it!

    instead we dither till it's too late





    Obama is a gutless community organizer from Chicago and Wall Street's bitch - end of story


    Chicago's eunuch no doubt. icon_wink.gif
  • thadjock

    Posts: 2183

    Mar 02, 2014 8:17 PM GMT
    little known fact:

    The Believers were right, the year 2000 DID mark the end of the world,

    it's just taking 14 yrs to roll it all out.

    DUCK AND COVER.
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    Mar 02, 2014 8:25 PM GMT
    hahahaha Kerry wants to "shore up the Ukrainian economy"

    how about you shore up Ohio's and Alabama's economy first you dumb f-ing worthless idiot