Why Russia No Longer Fears the West

  • metta

    Posts: 39099

    Mar 06, 2014 1:56 AM GMT
    Why Russia No Longer Fears the West

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/03/russia-vladimir-putin-the-west-104134.html
  • coolarmydude

    Posts: 9190

    Mar 06, 2014 2:01 AM GMT
    Putin's body language suggests otherwise:

    http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/putins-body-language-betrayed-anxiety-aggression-n44191
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    Mar 06, 2014 2:12 AM GMT
    I think Putin is losing his shit. The only American we should send to negotiate with him is Dennis Rodman.
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    Mar 06, 2014 7:57 AM GMT
    I thought it was America who feared Russia, thats why they trained the Taliban to fight Russia.
  • Destinharbor

    Posts: 4433

    Mar 06, 2014 4:41 PM GMT
    I think there is a lot of truth to the commentary. With the increasing concentration of wealth both here and in Europe, it is cash that speaks loudest. Cash is morally neutral. In this case, Russia actually has a legitimate claim on parts of the Ukraine and the Crimea. When the Russian Orthodox church separated from the main body of the Catholic church as it started moving back towards Rome from Constantinople, Kiev was initially its headquarters. As an organizing function of what later (much later) became Russia, and the Soviet Empire, Russians look on that region as an early capital. And truthfully, the region of the Ukraine into which Russia sent groups is ethnically Russian and totally in favor of the occupation.
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    Mar 06, 2014 5:21 PM GMT
    CarolinaMan saidI think Putin is losing his shit. The only American we should send to negotiate with him is Dennis Rodman.


    No need. Steven Seagal is already over there. They have their quota of bat shit American celebs.

    ap815050337456.jpg?w=260

    God he's fat now......
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    Mar 06, 2014 6:30 PM GMT
    This is a great example of the pathetic media protecting the two main perps, Obama and Clinton, by not even mentioning their names.

    Their "Reset"/appeasement foreign policy is a disaster, just like the regime's domestic policies.

    The Left got everything they wanted for six years, including a leadership (jackass, lead from behind) vacuum now being filled by thugs like Putin.

    Has the world ever been a more dangerous place? Don't think so, and we've got over two more years for our enemies to make their moves all over the world. It's only going to get uglier until there is new conservative leadership in Washington.

    Fact is, the Obama regime doesn't have any real enemies overseas, except maybe Israel. The regime's only real enemies are pro- Constitution Americans, especially the Tea Party.

    If Putin was a Tea Party Republican, he might have been taken out by a drone by now.
  • thadjock

    Posts: 2183

    Mar 06, 2014 7:19 PM GMT
    because they have Lord Snowden's thumbdrive...

    iStock_Thumb.jpg

    and his thumbs.

    article-2341451-1A48C1B7000005DC-120_306

    i think he's wincing here.
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    Mar 06, 2014 7:31 PM GMT
    Things that would make Russia afraid...

    http://news.investors.com/030314-691875-how-to-make-putin-pay-over-ukraine.htm?p=full

    1. Europe should open up to fracking. Europe has been opposed to fracking even as the U.S. reaps the benefits of an energy boom. Environmental concerns have been a major factor, though natural gas reduces CO2 emissions vs. coal. Also, mineral rights in Europe tend to belong to the government, not the property owner as in the U.S.

    So there's no vested interest in local shale development.

    It's not clear how much shale oil and gas Europe has. But the Continent won't know until it tries. One of the best opportunities for shale may be in Ukraine.

    Even pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, before his ouster last month, signed on to shale gas production deals with Chevron (CVX) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA).
    More European production could have a big impact on Russian gas prices. And it would protect against Russian threats to cut off gas supplies in winter — which it did to Ukraine twice in the past decade.

    Russia, which has tried to dismiss fracking as a bubble, belatedly realizes this. In recent years it's worked behind the scenes to encourage anti-fracking efforts in Europe.

    2. America should expand fracking. The U.S. is enjoying an energy renaissance, thanks to fracking, horizontal drilling and other technological advances.

    But almost all of the gains in oil and natural gas production have been on private lands. Obama should move to open up public lands to energy exploration.

    3. Promote LNG exports. LNG facilities are expensive to build. But the biggest obstacle is regulatory. The U.S. requires approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, as well as an export license from the Energy Department. DOE licenses can take months, with the last four permits taking more than two years. It can take five years before an Energy Department OK turns into real exports. The Obama administration should work to streamline the regulatory process.

    More LNG exports will bring down the price of natural gas worldwide. Many European LNG import facilities have been idle or running at low capacity. Exporters are sending shipments to Asia, where prices are even higher than Europe.

    LNG exports will further reduce America's trade deficit. Some argue that the U.S. should keep natural gas at home to give America an energy advantage. Chemical firms in particular want cheap natgas for fuel and as a raw material. But if domestic natgas prices rise, it should encourage more production. Shale output can be ramped up or down relatively quickly.

    4. Allow U.S. petroleum exports. America has banned petroleum exports since the Arab oil boycotts of the 1970s. But with the U.S. poised to be the world's No. 1 producer, whatever logic the prohibition once had is long gone.

    The ban helps keep a wide gap between U.S. light sweet crude vs. London-based Brent — $6.28 a barrel as of Monday.
    An export ban hurts U.S. producers and discourages output. It mostly benefits refineries, which are ramping up exports of refined fuels — at the global price.

    Lifting the export ban in particular would have speedy impact on global crude prices, dealing a quick hit to Putin's pocketbook.

    5. OK Keystone XL pipeline. There are many reasons to back the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. It would create thousands of jobs, lower oil prices and reduce the risk of crude-by-rail accidents. The oil is going to be produced anyway, which even the Obama administration admits.

    6. Enrich Ukraine. Germany, in the wake of Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, declared that all German nuclear plants would be shut down by 2022, rather than 2036.

    Nuclear power plants are hideously expensive to build and decommission, making them dubious investments. But while operational, they provide low-cost power — and no CO2 emissions.

    Cutting off nuclear power will mean sharply higher energy costs, dealing a serious blow to German industry.
    Renewables won't cut it either. In fact, Europe, despite its green pretensions, is starting to build coal-fired plants in response to high energy prices.

    If Germany were serious about countering Putin, it would embrace a "Ukrainian enrichment" strategy by extending the cutoff date for nuclear plants.

    7. Unify Cyprus. Cyprus has sizable natural gas fields in its territorial waters. But the island is split between the Greek-Cypriot government — which is part of the EU — and a Turkish-controlled rival. A new round of talks between the two sides is starting.

    Co-operation on the gas fields would be key and would open up the possibility of a pipeline to Turkey. Eventually, pipelines might be extended to include future offshore gas from Israel.

    All of these steps are worth doing for economic reasons. And while they wouldn't bring relief to Ukraine tomorrow, next week or even next year, they would have a serious impact on Putin's state-owned energy economy and his bullying at home and abroad. That's far more effective than Western leaders making impotent statements for a few days before moving on to the next crisis at home or abroad.

    Approving the Keystone pipeline or encouraging fracking in Europe also aren't provocations. Putin can't declare such moves as threats — but he knows they would be.

    Finally, smart energy policies also would undermine other energy autocrats around the world, including Venezuela.
  • coolarmydude

    Posts: 9190

    Mar 06, 2014 11:48 PM GMT
    riddler, I think this article will mostly come true. I think Keystone will get approved and Europe will start importing more oil & nat. gas from the US and Canada to leverage against Russia.
  • BillandChuck

    Posts: 2024

    Mar 07, 2014 12:15 AM GMT
    CarolinaMan saidI think Putin is losing his shit. The only American we should send to negotiate with him is Dennis Rodman.

    Closer trip for Sarah Palin. icon_eek.gif
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    Mar 07, 2014 12:25 AM GMT
    CarolinaMan saidI think Putin is losing his shit. The only American we should send to negotiate with him is Dennis Rodman.


    Dennis Rodman with Kim Jong Un from N. Korea and Putin,hm that would be a great interracial basketball team playing in Moscow eh?? Lol icon_redface.gificon_eek.gif Did anyone saw that interview with Chris Coumo and Dennis Rodman, man he was on Crack LOL. icon_lol.gif
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    Mar 07, 2014 1:01 AM GMT
    coolarmydude saidriddler, I think this article will mostly come true. I think Keystone will get approved and Europe will start importing more oil & nat. gas from the US and Canada to leverage against Russia.


    I really do hope so. It's estimated that the breaking point for the Putin regime is $60/barrel oil. If that happens Russia's government would likely collapse.
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    Mar 07, 2014 1:19 AM GMT
    coolarmydude saidriddler, I think this article will mostly come true. I think Keystone will get approved and Europe will start importing more oil & nat. gas from the US and Canada to leverage against Russia.


    no way you get that much natural gas to Europe, even on cyro ships
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    Mar 07, 2014 1:36 AM GMT
    somersault said
    coolarmydude saidriddler, I think this article will mostly come true. I think Keystone will get approved and Europe will start importing more oil & nat. gas from the US and Canada to leverage against Russia.


    no way you get that much natural gas to Europe, even on cyro ships


    There's a whack ton of potential shale gas in Europe and Northern Africa though... and given how inelastic demand is, you might not actually need that much gas to affect prices.
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    Mar 07, 2014 1:42 AM GMT
    I don't think this showdown is between Washington and Moscow at all. This is between Putin and Angela Merkel. He's testing her mettle. She has the power over Spain, Portugal and Greece (mentioned) to just grind their balls. And I'm looking forward to her doing just that. If Putin thinks he's hot shit right now, wait til she puts and iron boot up his flat Bolshevik ass.
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    Mar 07, 2014 1:43 AM GMT
    ^^

    fine, but that guy above is talking about tankering HUGE amounts of LNG from North America to Europe - no way, some, yes , a giant amount, no
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    Mar 07, 2014 1:47 AM GMT
    somersault said^^

    fine, but that guy above is talking about tankering HUGE amounts of LNG from North America to Europe - no way, some, yes , a giant amount, no


    People were thinking before that the US was running out of gas to the point that they were about to build massive LNG import ports. Now they're building export ports.

    That suggests though they thought the LNG tanker solution would be sustainable for the US declines. Fortunately natural gas isn't the only way they heat or can heat Europe. They can keep building tankers though for as long as pricing differentials remain the way they are...
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    Mar 07, 2014 1:57 AM GMT
    electricity-generation.jpg
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    Mar 07, 2014 1:57 AM GMT
    jockfever saidThis is a great example of the pathetic media protecting the two main perps, Obama and Clinton, by not even mentioning their names.

    Their "Reset"/appeasement foreign policy is a disaster, just like the regime's domestic policies.

    The Left got everything they wanted for six years, including a leadership (jackass, lead from behind) vacuum now being filled by thugs like Putin.

    Has the world ever been a more dangerous place? Don't think so, and we've got over two more years for our enemies to make their moves all over the world. It's only going to get uglier until there is new conservative leadership in Washington.

    Fact is, the Obama regime doesn't have any real enemies overseas, except maybe Israel. The regime's only real enemies are pro- Constitution Americans, especially the Tea Party.

    If Putin was a Tea Party Republican, he might have been taken out by a drone by now.


    PSYCHO
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    Mar 07, 2014 1:59 AM GMT
    here's how Europe heats itself

    EU_27%20CHP%20fuel%20mix%202011.png
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    Mar 07, 2014 2:16 AM GMT
    somersault saidhere's how Europe heats itself

    EU_27%20CHP%20fuel%20mix%202011.png


    Yep, it's substantial - but this is where Europe gets their natural gas now -

    EU-27_imports_of_natural_gas_-_percentag

    With the concern that the LNG tanker fleet is even outpacing LNG production capacity:
    http://gcaptain.com/lng-carrier-fleet-growth-outpacing-liquefaction-capacity/

    This also isn't to say that if say Russia turned off the pipes Europe wouldn't also start importing a whack ton of coal or using oil.
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    Mar 07, 2014 3:06 AM GMT
    try to remember that the Crimea is the only majrity Russian speaking region in the Ukraine. All the other eastern regions speak majority Ukranian. But language is not necessarily a true indicator of which way the regions would go. A majority of Russian speakers are not looking for union with Moscow. but a very loud minority is. Also a certain amount of agitation is bussed in from over the border in Russia.
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    Mar 07, 2014 3:52 AM GMT
    Obama and the Dem/Libs/Lefties have long hoped for American decline. Bizarre.
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    Mar 07, 2014 4:51 AM GMT
    Did that blithering idiot actually say "can't think of a time when the world was a more dangerous place?" Maybe he's Britney Spears. There was little thing called THE Cuban Missle Crisis when we were at DECON 4 and it was right on the edge when a DEMOCRAT put it all on the line to face down the Soviets. They blinked. A DEMOCRAT nuked Japan. A DEMOCRAT elected to build the bomb. A DEMOCRAT went toe to toe in Viet Nam. When the chips are down, look at your damn history book boy, its the democrats who have been the toughest mother fucking war hawks this country has ever seen. Republicans: shit, soft underbellied tip toe around the posies. Never go toe to toe with the Soviets. Easy way out, get at Iraq. Truman went toe to toe with China in Korea. Oh, he was a DEMOCRAT. Republicans talk a bullshit game. Democrats, we BITE.