Senate Democrats Have 51% Chance Retaining Majority

  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Apr 22, 2014 11:57 PM GMT
    NYT: Although the Democrats currently have a 51 percent chance, that doesn’t mean we’re predicting the Democrats to win the Senate — the probability is essentially the same as a coin flip. The Republicans’ chances have been declining in recent weeks, falling from a recent high of 54 percent. This is mostly due to some unfavorable polls in Arkansas and Iowa.

    http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/?hp
  • LuckyGuyKC

    Posts: 2080

    Apr 23, 2014 11:24 AM GMT
    This morning RealClearPolitics show a net GOP pick up of 6 resulting in a GOP majority of 51-49. Mary Landrieu(D)LA and Mark Pryor (D) AR should survive in the end which if both win with keep a Dem majority.
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    Apr 23, 2014 12:16 PM GMT
    LuckyGuyKC saidThis morning RealClearPolitics show a net GOP pick up of 6 resulting in a GOP majority of 51-49. Mary Landrieu(D)LA and Mark Pryor (D) AR should survive in the end which if both win with keep a Dem majority.

    RCP has a Rasmussen-like Republican bias, however. Always has.
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    Apr 23, 2014 3:18 PM GMT
    1zqbtid.jpg
  • BillandChuck

    Posts: 2024

    Apr 23, 2014 10:30 PM GMT
    southbeach1500 said
    jockfever said1zqbtid.jpg


    Well said, Mr. Obama.

    Though today's Republicans would never even try to impeach you - they haven't got the backbone to do it.

    The apocalypse must be upon us..... because we agree with southbeach. icon_rolleyes.gif
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    Apr 23, 2014 11:01 PM GMT
    woodsmen saidNYT: Although the Democrats currently have a 51 percent chance, that doesn’t mean we’re predicting the Democrats to win the Senate — the probability is essentially the same as a coin flip. The Republicans’ chances have been declining in recent weeks, falling from a recent high of 54 percent. This is mostly due to some unfavorable polls in Arkansas and Iowa.

    http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/?hp

    Senate races may be unpredictrable, now, but Obama is hurting the chances of democratic house candidates by advocating reducing military benefits and veteran's health care. Normally he is a much more savvy political animal than that.
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    Apr 24, 2014 12:39 AM GMT
    southbeach1500 said
    jockfever said1zqbtid.jpg


    Well said, Mr. Obama.

    Though today's Republicans would never even try to impeach you - they haven't got the backbone to do it.


    Plus I dont think the country is better off with Biden running the show anyways.
  • waccamatt

    Posts: 1918

    Apr 24, 2014 1:00 AM GMT
    We're keeping the Democratic majority in the Senate in 2016. I have a 90% confidence in that result.
  • KissTheSky

    Posts: 1980

    Apr 24, 2014 1:00 AM GMT
    Republicans' prospects for re-taking the Senate are fading because their whole message is "Repeal Obamacare."
    As more people sign up for it and figure out that it works -- and it is not the end of the world, as Republicans moronically predicted -- the GOP's credibility is going down the drain.
    As it stands now, the GOP's primary goal is taking healthcare away from the 12million-plus who now have affordable insurance thanks to Obamacare.
    It's a shameful goal, and they deserve to lose, and lose big.

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    Apr 24, 2014 1:03 AM GMT
    NYT: By now it’s pretty clear that red states' refusal to expand health coverage under Medicaid aren’t really worried about the expense. They’re motivated entirely by ideological stubbornness — “for no other reason than political spite,”

    New figures, in fact, show that the cost to the states of expanding Medicaid is less than previously thought. In February, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the expansion would cost the states $70 billion through 2024. This morning, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities noticed a figure in the April update to the C.B.O. report that said the state costs have dropped by a third, to $46 billion. (The price tag is so low over a ten-year period because the federal government will pick up 95 percent of the total amount.)

    The real costs to the states will be even less, though, because if they expand Medicaid, they will no longer have to pay for much of the emergency care of uninsured people that now takes place at hospitals and clinics. Estimates of this savings, according to the CBPP, range from $26 billion to $101 billion through 2019.

    The 19 states that have flatly refused to expand the program are ignoring these facts. (The issue is under debate in another five reluctant states.) Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, one of the loudest in the “hell, no” chorus of anti-Medicaid Republican governors, claims the state cannot afford even the small fraction of the cost it would have to bear. But the expansion would actually save the state as much as $78 million this year in uninsured costs and $134 million next year, according to the state’s own budgetary analysis. Expanding Medicaid would also add about 15,000 new health care jobs in Louisiana.

    http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/04/23/the-real-reason-red-states-wont-expand-medicaid/?hp&rref=opinion
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    Apr 24, 2014 1:10 AM GMT
    IMPEACHMENT? BRING IT ON!

    Obama may be causing your irritable bowel syndrome but otherwise you guys don't have a case.

    Republicans have been led too far from reality by folks like Michelle Bachmann and Louis Gohmert. This craziness is exactly why Republicans do not deserve another chance to screw things up.
  • KissTheSky

    Posts: 1980

    Apr 24, 2014 1:30 AM GMT
    CarolinaMan saidIMPEACHMENT? BRING IT ON!

    Obama may be causing your irritable bowel syndrome but otherwise you guys don't have a case.

    Republicans have been led too far from reality by folks like Michelle Bachmann and Louis Gohmert. This craziness is exactly why Republicans do not deserve another chance to screw things up.


    I agree completely.
    As a progressive who wants to keep winning elections, it is extremely encouraging to see the GOP veer farther and farther to the extreme right, as they gleefully sh*t on working families and the things that are important to regular people like healthcare and the economy.
    Instead of addressing the country's real problems, the Republicans spend their time attacking gay people, Latinos and women, and of course trying to convince people that Obama is a Socialist/Muslim/Communist.
    Thanks for all the good work on behalf of our country, GOP.
    I predict you will be richly rewarded on many election days to come. icon_lol.gif
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    Apr 24, 2014 1:43 AM GMT
    " trying to convince people that Obama is a Socialist/Muslim/Communist "

    I wish Obama was WHITE and REPUBLICAN, to go along with his center right policies.
  • BillandChuck

    Posts: 2024

    Apr 24, 2014 1:45 AM GMT
    FLgator said
    southbeach1500 said
    jockfever said1zqbtid.jpg


    Well said, Mr. Obama.

    Though today's Republicans would never even try to impeach you - they haven't got the backbone to do it.


    Plus I dont think the country is better off with Biden running the show anyways.

    Ain't THAT the truth!!! (Where's the emoticon for THE HORROR???)
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    Apr 24, 2014 1:51 AM GMT
    http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/13-things-you-wont-believe-the-man-who-could-be-north-caroli

    In case you think Republicans can't get any crazier!

    "He previously called U.S. property taxes “American central planning” and cited the Holocaust and Soviet Union as other examples of central planning.
    Brannon has said that the United Nations is a scam to control life and thinks that democratic debate over issues is a form of socialism."
  • KissTheSky

    Posts: 1980

    Apr 24, 2014 1:54 AM GMT
    Where do I sign the petition to encourage Republicans to impeach Obama? It would dig their political graves even faster, as the morons found out when they did it to Clinton in the 90s.
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    Apr 24, 2014 4:27 AM GMT
    only time will tell. as someone who's been involved in senate and presidential campaigns since '92, if you care about law, politics, who decides what happens in our daily lives - GET INVOLVED.

    elections have consequences. if we sit on our hands and shrug in november, more R's will be elected to congress. we have made great strides since 2008 and we need to move forward, not backward.

    and Hillary 2016.
  • tj85016

    Posts: 4123

    Apr 24, 2014 4:32 AM GMT
    I hope the whole friggin Federal mess remains gridlocked, I don't trust either party
  • HottJoe

    Posts: 21366

    Apr 24, 2014 5:27 AM GMT
    tj85016 saidI hope the whole friggin Federal mess remains gridlocked, I don't trust either party

    #disgruntledteaparty
  • tj85016

    Posts: 4123

    Apr 24, 2014 5:58 AM GMT
    HottJoe said
    tj85016 saidI hope the whole friggin Federal mess remains gridlocked, I don't trust either party

    #disgruntledteaparty


    lol I actually like Elizabeth Warren - I'm 53, I've seen so much bullshit from both parties it's disgusting.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Apr 24, 2014 11:40 AM GMT
    KissTheSky saidWhere do I sign the petition to encourage Republicans to impeach Obama? It would dig their political graves even faster, as the morons found out when they did it to Clinton in the 90s.


    You mean winning the presidency?

    Everything you are saying is a quote pulled from an Obama or Clinton speech. The idea that half of Americans would want people to go without healthcare or to live in poverty is absolutely ridiculous.

    It's how Democrats operate lately "Side with our programs, no questions asked, or you hate gays, women, people, blacks, hispanics, etc"

    Underestimating your opponent is only good for your opponent, come up with some more fleshed out arguments. Obamacare works because the president bypassed congress to make 30 changes to the law.
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    Apr 24, 2014 12:27 PM GMT
    BROTIE said
    Underestimating your opponent is only good for your opponent, come up with some more fleshed out arguments. Obamacare works because the president bypassed congress to make 30 changes to the law.

    Never met a Republican talking point you weren't happy to parrot, have you.
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    Apr 24, 2014 3:36 PM GMT
    onejock said
    and Hillary 2016.


    Let's hope she comes to her senses and decides not to run. She will be too old. She already had her chance, and miffed it. We don't need a 78 year old woman president. Alzheimer's is becoming more prevalent every year, and has a higher incidence in women. Remember Reagan?

    Plus she is the most hated politician in the country among republicans and the independents they can mobilize, and there is nothing like hatred for a candidate to get them to out to vote in record numbers. The Limbaugh/talk radio system will be non-stop anti-Hillary speech 24/7 for months.

    The democrats should throw away a Presidency to satisfy a woman's vanity? They may very well be so dumb - remember Kerry?
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    Apr 24, 2014 3:37 PM GMT
    HikerSkier said
    onejock said
    and Hillary 2016.


    Let's hope she comes to her senses and decides not to run. She will be too old. She already had her chance, and miffed it. We don't need a 78 year old woman president. Alzheimer's is becoming more prevalent every year, and has a higher incidence in women. Remember Reagan?

    Plus she is the most hated politician in the country among republicans and the independents they can mobilize, and there is nothing like hatred for a candidate to get them to out to vote in record numbers. The Limbaugh/talk radio system will be non-stop anti-Hillary speech 24/7 for months.

    The democrats should throw away a Presidency to satisfy a woman's vanity? They may very well be so dumb - remember Kerry?

    I think you're mistaken as to the outcome. She will wipe the floor with any Republican currently under consideration. The real problem (for me) is that she's going to be another Wall Street whore.
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    Apr 24, 2014 5:25 PM GMT
    My crystal ball is a bit foggy lately - does not guarantee 100% accurate predictions - just likelihoods. You did notice that O did not get as large a voter turnout in 2012 as he did in 2008? And he was widely popular (once he produced his birth certificate for the birthers). He even got fewer votes than McCain got in 2008. I think if Hillary runs, we likely get some republican (Cruz? Rubio?) for president.