Mathematically the GOP cannot win the 2016 White House, short of a miracle.

  • Svnw688

    Posts: 3350

    Nov 03, 2014 11:31 PM GMT
    http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/03/opinion/gergen-blue-wall-republicans-2016/

    This GOP doom coming from David Gergen, a self-described moderate-Republican. Key quote: "It's not just the number of blue states but how huge an advantage they provide for the Democratic presidential nominee. Altogether, these 18 states plus the District of Columbia account for 242 electoral votes -- just 28 shy of the 270 magic total required to win the White House. If the wall holds firm, the Democratic nominee only has to win a handful of purple states to go over the top. Florida's 29 electoral votes alone would seal the election."

    So basically Hillary campaigns in and wins Florida, and it's all over for the GOP unless a red-elephant miracle occurs.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Nov 03, 2014 11:41 PM GMT
    Svnw688 saidhttp://www.cnn.com/2014/11/03/opinion/gergen-blue-wall-republicans-2016/

    This GOP doom coming from David Gergen, a self-described moderate-Republican. Key quote: "It's not just the number of blue states but how huge an advantage they provide for the Democratic presidential nominee. Altogether, these 18 states plus the District of Columbia account for 242 electoral votes -- just 28 shy of the 270 magic total required to win the White House. If the wall holds firm, the Democratic nominee only has to win a handful of purple states to go over the top. Florida's 29 electoral votes alone would seal the election."

    So basically Hillary campaigns in and wins Florida, and it's all over for the GOP unless a red-elephant miracle occurs.

    Uh, whatever. Please post again in about 2 years. Right now it's just whistling in the woods.
  • Svnw688

    Posts: 3350

    Nov 03, 2014 11:52 PM GMT
    Meh, whistling in the woods as established by DECADES, plural, of voting history. Not to mention the emerging demographics will STRENGTHEN, not weaken, this blue wall.

    Don't kill the messenger. These are political science "facts," which do carry some weight (if substantially less than scientific, or real, facts). I wouldn't want that uphill battle for the Dems in 2016 is all I can say.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Nov 04, 2014 11:13 PM GMT
    This is just what Democrats wanted after letting tens of millions of immigrants in for the past 30 years.So no surprise.
  • roadbikeRob

    Posts: 14303

    Nov 05, 2014 12:43 AM GMT
    [quote][cite]Svnw688 said[/cite]Meh, whistling in the woods as established by DECADES, plural, of voting history. Not to mention the emerging demographics will STRENGTHEN, not weaken, this blue wall.

    Don't kill the messenger. These are political science "facts," which do carry some weight (if substantially less than scientific, or real, facts). I wouldn't want that uphill battle for the Dems in 2016 is all I can say.[/quote Either Florida or Ohio could push the democrats over the edge and win the White House in 2016. However, if the democrats are stupid enough to nominate the hapless Hillary ho, than I don't want them to win in 2016. The country would be better off if the GOP wins the White House in 2016. Also keep in mind that both Florida and Ohio are purple swing states that tend to be somewhat more conservative which can create major headaches for the democratic party.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Nov 05, 2014 1:06 AM GMT
    Svnw688 saidhttp://www.cnn.com/2014/11/03/opinion/gergen-blue-wall-republicans-2016/

    This GOP doom coming from David Gergen, a self-described moderate-Republican. Key quote: "It's not just the number of blue states but how huge an advantage they provide for the Democratic presidential nominee. Altogether, these 18 states plus the District of Columbia account for 242 electoral votes -- just 28 shy of the 270 magic total required to win the White House. If the wall holds firm, the Democratic nominee only has to win a handful of purple states to go over the top. Florida's 29 electoral votes alone would seal the election."

    So basically Hillary campaigns in and wins Florida, and it's all over for the GOP unless a red-elephant miracle occurs.


    For some reason I haven't given up yet, so I may as well spout my usual nonsense: When you read this you should be wondering how it feeds any existing narratives and what strategic ends it could serve.

    Much of the article seems to revolve around the usual point:

    (article)In 2016, the tables will turn: It is the GOP that will have the more vulnerable Senate candidates in blue and purple states. If the Democrats field a strong presidential candidate, they could well retain the White House and win a majority in the Senate, too.

    Call me cynical, but here I read "Democrats should relax, because 2016 will be easy for them. Republicans should start working on 2016 now, because it will be an uphill battle". Sounds like a pitch designed to reach one side's base in particular. Then it goes on to end with

    (article)...it is possible that these 2014 midterms will be a turning point for Republicans, opening a way back to control of both White House and Congress in 2016.


    This is even more interesting, because it conspicuously ignores the likelihood that Republicans would then likely control all *three* branches, not just two.

    Call me a crazy conservative for trying to warn Democrats against complacency, but this looks to me like a finely tuned message designed to fit a strategic narrative.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Nov 05, 2014 1:09 AM GMT
    Look it Americans are pissed in2016 a good candidate like ran paul will help! Trust me ran paul will get the young voters .
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Nov 05, 2014 1:13 AM GMT
    Butthurt Consevaposse/Republicunts, here we go.


    giphy.gif


  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Nov 05, 2014 4:05 AM GMT
    After 8 years of Barack Obama, with folks as fed up as they are with him and his miserable lack of leadership, you can throw history and those numbers out the window ... a decent Republican will have more than a decent chance of winning the White House.

    And lemme get this straight, Hillary Clinton is a shoo-in because?

    This country is ready for a fresh face, fresh ideas and a leader with authenticity. Two years is a loooooong time in politics, but I'm willing to bet right now, Hillary falls short.

    Any takers?
  • Bowyn_Aerrow

    Posts: 357

    Nov 05, 2014 4:17 AM GMT
    It's way too early to start debating 2016 and guessing who will win.

    War, Economy, Aliens Invading from Outerspace.... and various other things can upset the politics of the USA and the whole world between now and then.

  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Nov 05, 2014 4:18 AM GMT
    westsidetony saidAfter 8 years of Barack Obama, with folks as fed up as they are with him and his miserable lack of leadership, you can throw history and those numbers out the window ... a decent Republican will have more than a decent chance of winning the White House.

    And lemme get this straight, Hillary Clinton is a shoo-in because?

    This country is ready for a fresh face, fresh ideas and a leader with authenticity. Two years is a loooooong time in politics, but I'm willing to bet right now, Hillary falls short.

    Any takers?



    You mean all those fake, nasty, tea party religious right wingers who PROMISED to make the first black president a one term only president, to not do anything, block and obstruct everything during his presidency, as to clearly frustrate and anger the American public? If you still are having problems figuring out what or whom has been behind the curtain, I suggest you pray for some clarity icon_lol.gif

    Now that the evil empire will control congress, turn about is fair play, lets see what the Dems come up with to destroy any tea party republicans hopes, dreams and chance in hell of winning the presidency in 2016, prepare to be scandalized icon_lol.gif

    Its all a game anyway, who can sabotage better icon_rolleyes.gif
  • Webster666

    Posts: 9217

    Nov 05, 2014 4:27 AM GMT
    westsidetony saidAfter 8 years of Barack Obama, with folks as fed up as they are with him and his miserable lack of leadership, you can throw history and those numbers out the window ... a decent Republican will have more than a decent chance of winning the White House.

    And lemme get this straight, Hillary Clinton is a shoo-in because?

    This country is ready for a fresh face, fresh ideas and a leader with authenticity. Two years is a loooooong time in politics, but I'm willing to bet right now, Hillary falls short.

    Any takers?



    Over and over and over, this is the only criticism I hear about President Obama: the empty charge of lack of leadership. That means exactly nothing.

  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Nov 05, 2014 4:33 AM GMT
    Webster666 said
    westsidetony saidAfter 8 years of Barack Obama, with folks as fed up as they are with him and his miserable lack of leadership, you can throw history and those numbers out the window ... a decent Republican will have more than a decent chance of winning the White House.

    And lemme get this straight, Hillary Clinton is a shoo-in because?

    This country is ready for a fresh face, fresh ideas and a leader with authenticity. Two years is a loooooong time in politics, but I'm willing to bet right now, Hillary falls short.

    Any takers?



    Over and over and over, this is the only criticism I hear about President Obama: the empty charge of lack of leadership. That means exactly nothing.

    how does 18 trillion in debt , a failed healthcare , foreign policy that is a joke , one scansal after another . Tonight he lose the senate for a reason . U notice all democrat senators stayed away from him ? He lost 10 house seats
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Nov 05, 2014 8:36 AM GMT
    guido4life said

    how does 18 trillion in debt , a failed healthcare , foreign policy that is a joke , one scansal after another . Tonight he lose the senate for a reason . U notice all democrat senators stayed away from him ? He lost 10 house seats


    1) Not really Obama's responsibility (the Bush tax cuts account for most of the increase in national debt):

    w-cbo0918.jpg

    Nor is debt the horrible monster that simpleminded folk make it out to be. Note that the highest level of debt shown there was just after World War II. Now, see if you can remember what happened with the US economy following World War II?

    2) By what measure has the ACA "failed"? the number of uninsured has dropped by 25% and this number is almost certain to increase with the expansion of medicaid due to some of the gubernatorial results tonight and with the next open enrollment period which begins on November 15th.

    3) Vague, meaningless.

    4) Yes, he lost the Senate because 2008 was a banner year for Democrats, and they won in many conservative areas that they would not typically have won. Democratic losses are about what you would expect in mid-year elections. Did you not pay attention to 2006 and 2010? 2016 should be a good year for Democrats precisely because 2010 was so bad. And final numbers are not available for 2014 yet, but do bear in mind that in 2012, more people voted for Democrats for the house of Representatives than voted for Republicans and yet Republicans took the house due to gerrymandering. This should make it fairly obvious that the number of seats gained and lost in itself only tells part of the story.

    Inform yourself.

  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Nov 05, 2014 2:33 PM GMT
    And now republicans control the house and the Senate icon_smile.gif Now that does say something.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Nov 05, 2014 2:41 PM GMT
    the average joe the plumber, and he is the smart one, only vaguely understands todays results. The political analysts think, for the president; good or bad, it could go either way.

    in 6months time all this will be forgotten and it will be a brave new world (more or less).