Is a global economic recession coming?

• metta
  
  Posts: 44176
  
  
  Jan 16, 2015 8:24 AM GMT

  Is a global economic recession coming? Copper price say 'yes'
  
  “I’m getting worried that this [drop in copper prices] is telling us not all is right with the global economy and that it is slowing faster than anticipated,” said Robin Bhar, head of metals research at Societe Generale.
  
  “If you asked me three to six months ago, I would have been less worried; I would have said it’s oversupply of oil, iron ore, coal. But the combination of greater supply with weaker demand is suggesting it’s indicative that the global slowdown is taking place.”
  
  http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/14/copper-prices-fall-fears-looming-global-recession
  
  
  
  Deflation Bells are Deafening
  
  http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-13/deflation-bells-are-deafening

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• maxferguson
  
  Posts: 322
  
  
  Jan 17, 2015 1:27 AM GMT

  This week the yield curve flattened significantly so it's not far off. The big story since February last year has been US decoupling from the rest of the world (EM and DM). Jobs picked up, a strong dollar is still a net benefit (at least in the short/medium term) and oil was a tailwind. US is far from recession, but globally once half of the G8 yield curves invert then I would call a recession. Curious to see what the ECB does next week.
  
  

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  Jan 17, 2015 1:47 AM GMT

  It sure feels like it in Canada.

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• roadbikeRob
  
  Posts: 18110
  
  
  Jan 17, 2015 5:19 PM GMT

  According to an article in the New York Times, Germany's economic performance is improving steadily with all indicators up. Similar to the US in many ways.

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