O M G, O M G: Of course if you deflate the football, YOU FUMBLE LESS (Here's the story!)

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    Jan 29, 2015 7:07 PM GMT
    PHOENIX – Maybe the smoking gun isn’t in a bathroom at Gillette Stadium. Maybe it’s in the laptop of a civil engineer in Washington, D.C.

    One of the strangest twists in the already strange saga of deflate-gate is the sudden star turn of a man who runs a gambling website when he’s not doing his day job. Warren Sharp is a 36-year-old dad who loves numbers and algorithms, and decided to apply some statistics to the Patriots when he heard about the football deflation investigation. What he found sent ripples through the sports world and got a few other statisticians pretty upset.

    It also may have implications beyond Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

    Sharp’s idea was to look at fumbles. That led him to a more refined topic: how well the Patriots held onto the ball both before and after the 2006 season, which happened to be the year Brady and Peyton Manning pushed for a rule change which allowed each team to provide their own footballs for games.

    “Something significant changed from 2006 to 2007 that allowed them to retain the football,” Sharp said by phone Tuesday, “and that continues today.”

    According to Sharp’s calculations, the Patriots’ fumble rate was 42 touches per fumble from 2000 through 2006. That was about the league average. Since 2007, however, that rate has dropped dramatically, to 74 touches per fumble. Over that time, the Pats are the best team in the NFL at holding onto the ball, even including dome teams.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/news/deflate-gate-triggers-stat-spat-as-analysts-attempt-to-solve-why-patriots-don-t-fumble-003107565-nfl.html
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    Jan 30, 2015 1:13 PM GMT
    Correct me if I'm wrong but if a ball is being used and is deflated a touch like in recent events doesn't that give the same advantage to both teams in said game?
    Other than knowing about it I don't see how one team has a great advantage over the other in this type of cheat.
    If anything it would make for a more exciting game.
  • Farmboy8

    Posts: 88

    Jan 30, 2015 1:57 PM GMT
    And the Patriots played oh so poorly after a new set of footballs were given to them in the second half of the AFC Championship game, right? And show me a quarterback that isn't super anal about how the footballs feel, etc.
    The turnover stat is interesting, but my guess is look at the top winning teams on any given year, and their turnover rate will be the lowest in the league......so they are all using under inflated balls?
    Shame on the league for being so sloppy with something like the treatment of the ball that is used.
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    Jan 30, 2015 2:58 PM GMT
    This whole issue is a none issue.. The league calls for a $25K fine. Fine them and be done with it.. Every QB in the league "messes" with the balls in some way or another to get it how they want it.
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    Jan 30, 2015 4:12 PM GMT
    It's about time this story made its way to this "sports board."
  • ohioguy12

    Posts: 2024

    Jan 30, 2015 5:40 PM GMT
    RespectablyBuffed saidCorrect me if I'm wrong but if a ball is being used and is deflated a touch like in recent events doesn't that give the same advantage to both teams in said game?
    Other than knowing about it I don't see how one team has a great advantage over the other in this type of cheat.
    If anything it would make for a more exciting game.


    Each team provides their own balls to use.
  • FRE0

    Posts: 4862

    Jan 30, 2015 10:23 PM GMT
    RespectablyBuffed saidCorrect me if I'm wrong but if a ball is being used and is deflated a touch like in recent events doesn't that give the same advantage to both teams in said game?
    Other than knowing about it I don't see how one team has a great advantage over the other in this type of cheat.
    If anything it would make for a more exciting game.


    I've wondered the same thing myself. If it doesn't provide a clear advantage for one team, why should it be such a big issue?
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    Jan 31, 2015 1:37 AM GMT
    Each team uses there own balls and brings there own balls now, that changed in 2007 or so after Brady lobbied for this rule change.

    Strange now that we see the tampering deflate issue at home, he is totally aware of ball condition just by him getting this rule changed for controlling road game balls.

    Look up how many fumbles the patriots had at Patriot home games this year by Running backs i think it was zero. Also last 7 years see how many fumbles they had against the rest of the league its staggering less about double less, not even close to 2nd less team. All this with retread running backs. Of course you have also wes welker who nobody is talking about that never dropped passes and set records for 100+ catches 7 years also retread WRs all catch the ball never drop them. Look at the no drop numbers for patriots WR. Its not about Brady its about the guys running the ball and players catching the ball for him get an edge.

    Where there is smoke there is fire. The balls tampering didn't make them win all the time it just made the patriots better and giving an edge, confidence, momentum changing effects, and edge if they need an edge.

    Baseball if you doctor the ball tiny bit it changes everything, spit ball, vasceline, dirt, notches its all illegal and players get thrown out suspended. Same if you doctor bats, cork in middle or rubber, or pine tar. same with football it it is doctored it changes the game just a little edge to make a difference.